Market Still Appears Pointed Higher after FOMC Announcement

Yesterday's FOMC statement was a non-event.  The Fed basically said that everything is great, except where it isn't, but there's no reason to begin tapering QE just yet.  The Fed also let us know that despite the rising costs of oil, housing, food, clothing, beard trimmers, and of course equities, that in fact inflation is incredibly low by anyone's standards -- especially the Fed's -- and in reality there is no such thing as inflation, it's all just a trick of the light; and even if inflation did exist, it certainly couldn't survive in this day and age, what with cell phones and iPads and such, so go back to sleep and we'll take care of everything. 

I'm sure we can trust these guys to make this all work out.  It's not like they're trying to control a massive and incredibly complicated system like a national economy or something.  And I mean, this is the same group of folks who assured us there was no housing bubble right before the housing bubble popped, so clearly they're better informed than we are. 

Meanwhile, the market still appears that it wants to continue rallying for at least a bit longer.  In my last update, I expected further upside for both the preferred and alternate count, and the S&P 500 (SPX) rallied into the alternate count target zone of 1695-1698.  Despite the strong reversal from that zone, I'm continuing to favor my view that the bulls will push up into the preferred count's next target of 1704-1708.  If the bulls can do that without whipsaw, then odds are good we're headed into the higher degree target zone of 1720-1735 (see hourly chart which follows).

   
On the hourly, I continue to feel the market needs another wave up to complete this five-wave structure.  This chart has tracked well for the past few weeks.

I haven't updated the long bond since the end of June, but after my last update, it subsequently found support within my very narrow target range of 132-132.10.  The rally out of that zone appears impulsive, and a breakout over the dashed black line has good odds to take wave (4) up toward the 137 zone -- with a shot at 140.  So the long bond could stabilize for a while here, but ultimately in the big picture, lower prices are expected.

 
In conclusion, equities still appear to be pointed toward the next upside target zone, and I'll adjust and refine those targets as this wave unfolds in real-time.  I continue to believe the market is entering the fifth wave of a fifth wave, which means a significant correction awaits upon completion.  Trade safe.

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Not Quite Yet, but Soon: Get Ready for a Major Correction

Let's face it, bull markets are boring.  At least, I think they are.  I miss having a market like we had in 2008 -- but then, I love volatility.  I think there's nothing more exciting than running both sides of the trade and picking up 50 ES points on a round-trip in one day.  You just can't do that type of thing in a bull market.

For the past few weeks, I've been trying to balance how to discuss this market at different time frames, so as not to be too premature in discussing the bearish potential and scare people off from playing the long side.  The bottom line is that the bearish potential is something I'm anticipating not too far down the road -- but as I discussed yesterday, I'm still not seeing any real signals in the price action about which to become bearish.  Nevertheless, I would be remiss not to highlight the fact that I believe we're in the fifth and final wave of the rally -- so today, we'll look at that in a bit more depth.  

While I don't see anything to be immediately bearish about, the "good" news is:  I think the bears' turn to shine is coming soon.  Back in the beginning of February, I published my preferred long-term wave count, with a target of 1750 (+/-) SPX -- and we're finally almost there.  I'm still inclined to believe there's another wave up to come here, but I'm also inclined to believe that we're going to see a big correction (or much worse) follow that wave.

One of the fascinating things about Elliott Wave Theory is the psychological component.  Each wave has its own character, and sometimes we can use sentiment to help locate where we are in a wave structure.  For example, second waves (in bull markets) tend to be the moment at which everyone is most fearful.  Third waves are the "point of recognition," where the majority finally get on board with the right side of the trade.  Fifth waves tend to be times of either "irrational exuberance" or utter complacency -- or both.  I believe we're in a fifth wave now.

Accordingly, I believe we should prepare for some sort of major news event approaching on the horizon -- quite possibly as soon as August -- which will start to shift sentiment away from the Invincible Fed Money Machine to "Hmm, maybe things aren't as solid as we think."  Ultimately, much further down the road, sentiment will come full circle to "Arrgh, get me out of this market at any price!"

I think we're getting close to beginning that bear cycle.

The long-term chart shows my preferred wave count, and while I can't rule out the more bullish count, I'm still inclined to favor the black (B) wave rally, which will reverse (ideally sometime in August), and ultimately head back to retest the 2009 lows.  Of course, that sounds impossible right now... about as impossible as SPX 1700 did, back in 2009.

On the hourly chart, we can see that the structure still appears to need another wave up, to yet another new all-time-high.

The five-minute chart is my best-guess on the near-term wave structure. The recent action is a bit messy, which is usually suggestive of a fourth wave correction.

In conclusion, I don't think it's time to get uber-bearish just yet, as I believe the structure is still pointing to higher prices.  But I think we're getting close, and traders with an eye toward the intermediate and long term may want to consider beginning to position for a fundamental change in the market's character.  Trade safe.

Reprinted by permission, Copyright 2013 Minyanville Media Inc.

Any Reasons to Get Bearish Yet?

In this update, we'll revisit Apple (AAPL) and see how the wave count is progressing, and also take a look at the broader market.  Before I get too far, though, I should mention that since I reside in Maui, I may end up "off the grid" in the near future.  We're awaiting the arrival of Tropical Storm Flossie, which is due to hit Monday morning and projected to pass directly between Maui and the Big Island of Hawai'i (this is a relatively narrow space, which means it's going to hit us pretty hard).  In preparation, I spent yesterday braving the long lines at Costco in order to stock up on necessities like Doritos and Kit Kats, in case the storm wreaks havoc on Maui's infrastructure and leaves us without power and chocolate.  Honestly, though, it's tough to take a storm named "Flossie" too seriously.  To me, "Flossie" sounds like the name of a cheerful licensed cartoon character who promotes the virtues of good dental hygiene ("Remember kids, Flossie says to clean between your teeth after every meal!  Especially after eating Kit Kats and Doritos!").   

Anyway, last update noted that the S&P 500 (SPX) had reached the 1695-1705 target and was probably due a fourth wave correction.  It appears that correction has unfolded, and is likely complete, suggesting the market is beginning wave (5) up to the 1700's.  The decline appears corrective so far.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDU) put in a bullish reversal on Friday, and this type of candlestick suggests a lot of buyers were/are waiting just under current price levels -- which suggests solid price support for the near-term.

The Dow Jones Transportation Average (TRAN) presents an interesting picture.  It's formed enough squiggles for Minor Wave v to count as complete, but wave v would appear disproportionately small if it is indeed finished.  One of the guideline of Elliott Wave Theory is two waves in an impulse tend toward equality -- usually wave i and v.  If we've only seen wave (1) of v, then there's quite a bit more rally still to come.

Too Many Markets, Too Little Time

I apologize for the brevity of the updates lately, I've had a great deal going on in my personal life, and haven't had much in the way of free time lately.  Hopefully things should return to "normal" (whatever that is) in the reasonably near future.  I've updated several charts, but will have to keep the body of the article short. 

First up is the Nasduck Composite (DUCK), which is probably the clearest example I could find of a market that suggests new lows on the way.

Next is the NYSE Composite (NYA), which has a similar bearish rising wedge:

The Philadelphia Bank Index (BKX) chart notes a bearish sell trigger:

In the last update I noted that we should begin looking for a correction, since three markets had reached target zones.  It appears likely that a deeper correction is on the way, and I've noted the first two downside targets on the S&P 500 (SPX).  This is of course predicated on bears reclaiming 1680.

In conclusion, the correction suggested in the last update appears to be unfolding now.  Note that wave (4) could run quite deep without creating any technical issues, and give the shallow nature of wave (2), a deeper wave (4) correction would not be out of the ordinary.  Also continue to keep in mind the alternate possibility that ALL OF wave v completed at 1698.  Trade safe.

SPX, RUT, BKX: Russell 2000 Reaches December's Target

The rally has continued largely unabated since last update, and several markets have reached their target zones.  As yet there's no concrete sign of a turn, but two markets have reached near-term targets, and one has reached a long-term target, and this suggests a cautious stance is warranted. 

The S&P 500 (SPX) reached the 1695-1705 target zone for blue wave (3), but it's unclear if it has farther to run or not.  So far, the melt-up channel remains intact.

The Philadelphia Bank Index (BKX) cleared target zone one and is within pennies of the second target.  It's now bumping its head against theoretical channel resistance, which is always a zone where I consider action in the form of taking profits and/or anticipating/positioning for a reversal.    This is a zone that provides information and defines clear lines of demarcation.

Of some note, the Russell 2000 (RUT) has reached the long-standing target of 1050, from way back in December.  Again, it's unclear if there's farther to run -- but this market is also bumping into theoretical channel resistance, in conjunction with reaching my long-term target. 

In conclusion, there's yet been no real signs of a reversal, but with several markets reaching targets and resistance levels, this is clearly an area where we should begin watching for one.  Presently, it appears the market still has a fourth wave decline to unravel, followed by a fifth wave to new highs.  The alternate count allows the possibility that the market is completing fifth waves at multiple degrees, but we'll need to see the form of any forthcoming decline before adding credence to that possibility.  Trade safe.

Short Update

Unfortunately, I only have the time and energy for a short update today.  Yesterday, SPX made a new All-Time-High, as the charts suggested it would.  So far it's come within a couple points of the next blue box target zone from 7/15, and I have some caution levels to help determine whether it will be reached or not. 

The first near-term level for bears to reclaim is the previous all-time-high at 1687.  The next key level is 1684 (which was also the first installment in the now-famous series of George Orwell novels, featuring Ye Olde Big Brother).  If those levels fail to act as support, then we may have begun the blue wave (4) correction a couple points early.

Beyond that, there isn't much to add from the previous update.  Trade safe.

SPX and Apple Have Both Reached Minor Inflection Points

Not surprisingly, the market encountered some resistance at the all-time-high, making yesterday the first down day the market has seen since the Truman Administration.  At least, it seemed that way... but it's probably been longer. 

There is some room in the charts for near-term bearish movement, but right now the decline is only an abc sequence, so bears will need another new low to begin thinking in terms of a more meaningful correction.  The near-term chart below outlines some key short-term levels and contingent targets.  If we see a solid new low (shown as gray (5)), then we'll begin anticipating the next bounce will be followed by another leg lower for the near-term (gray ABC).

Stepping back a time frame, I'm inclined to believe that we're still in blue wave (3) until the market says otherwise.  Note the bearish alternate count remains viable as the all-time high is still intact.

I'd also like to share a long-term count I've been tracking for a while in the Nasdaq Composite (COMPQ).  The unique perspective that the Nasdaq affords is that we know, without a doubt, to expect a five-wave rally.  In SPX and many other indices, we really don't know which long-term structure to anticipate -- either an ABC or an impulse wave.  But because Nasdaq is still recovering from the tech crash, and is clearly in a c-wave, we know to expect an impulsive upwards move.

Note the Nasdaq recently reached the 61.8% retrace of the tech crash, which is always a good spot for a correction to begin.  Ultimately, it appears more likely that Nasdaq has higher prices in store for the long-term, and the 4000-4200 zone presents targets at two wave degrees, so assuming we can get through current resistance, that may be the next spot to watch.  Of note, my preferred count for Nasdaq has us in wave v of (5) of v -- which means it's anticipated to be the last leg up at multiple wave degrees.  This also means that it has already completed the minimum expectations of a fifth wave (having reached a new high), so there's no room for complacency heading forward.

I'd also like to briefly update Apple (AAPL). Apple has performed well and tacked on about 20 points since I suggested it as a long play on July 8.  Since we timed this entry properly, we can either take profits or move stops up to roughly break even, thereby limiting or eliminating risk.  In any case, AAPL has reached an inflection point, so I'd like to talk about the other side of the trade in more detail. 

I'm still favoring the bulls for Apple, and the preferred count is a bullish nest of first and second waves, which would lead to a strong rally in a nested third wave.  The only thing bothering me for AAPL is the rising wedge shape it's taken, but it's not uncommon to see this structure before a strong rally.  However, it needs to launch out of that wedge with authority to validate the bull case; and the longer it hangs around current price levels, the more cautious I become.  I view the bearish wave count as roughly a 40% underdog, but Apple has now completed a potential ABC rally, so it needs to be watched closely for the moment. 

In conclusion, the trends remain pointed up for the time being, but the market has reached an inflection point, and a new low would shift the near-term trend.  And that always leaves open the possibility of a larger trend shift underway, though it currently appears more likely that the market will head on to new highs after this correction completes.  Trade safe.

 

Reprinted by permission, copyright 2013 Minyanville Media, Inc.