NYA and SPX: Back in the USSR

Let's jump right into the charts, starting with NYA, which has now captured its second upside target box:

SPX is, interestingly, back into the inflection zone I mentioned a couple weeks ago:

In conclusion, I want to see if and how the market reacts to these inflection zones before commenting too much further, so we'll take a deeper dive on Wednesday.  Trade safe.

SPX and NYA Updates

Since last update, SPX has made the previously-favored b-wave low count seem less likely:

NYA has captured its first upside target zone:

If NYA reaches 15400-15800, then that is a very significant inflection zone, so I would be interested to see how the market reacts to it.

In conclusion, the near-term bear count in SPX hasn't quite been invalidated, but it's on the ropes.  NYA is now in the process of forming three waves up, and recall that three waves can be an ABC correction.  The current wave can run higher, but be aware that this can become a very significant inflection and reverse.  I'd like to see a bit more from the market before calling for a reversal, but just putting that option out there for now.  Trade safe.

SPX, NYA, OIL Updates

Last update focused on the near-term potentials, and the market traded sideways/down since then, leaving everything unresolved.  I've added the new relevant commentary to the near-term SPX chart:

No change in NYA:

Finally, I thought about adding this oil chart to Monday's update, then didn't, and I'm still uncertain about adding it now... but will anyway.  Oil does NOT yet have an impulsive rally off the low, so keep that in mind, as this may be premature.

In conclusion, not much to add beyond that.  Trade safe.

SPX and NYA: Near-term Potentials

Everyone should understand the big picture potentials by now, so today will focus on the near-term.

Friday's update offered a near-term option that turned out to be the only chart we needed (at least, for Friday's action):

Zooming out a bit, the near-term options appear to be as follows:

And then zooming out a bit more, if bulls were to get their ABC (either immediately or after another low), then it could lead to another leg for the rally.  (If bears are already in control, then we're already in a third wave that may not let bulls up for air for a while.)

In conclusion, the first half of Friday's near-term speculative count was a hit, we'll see if the second portion of that count works out too, but be aware of NYA's tag of the second line (above) and the "alt: bull c" option on the second chart.  Trade safe.

SPX, NYA, TLT Updates

Last update noted, regarding the SPX chart:

In a perfect world for bears, though, SPX stops at or before the highlighted confluence

SPX stopped at the very bottom edge of the blue zone, and shy of the confluence, so things continue to look "not particularly bullish."

I want to call attention to one potential near-term path.  The pattern isn't clear enough to call this a "hard prediction," more of a soft speculation... but the option is there, so I thought readers might want to see it:

NYA just missed its first zone and reversed.  It is now coming up on the red trend line, which may or may not offer support:

TLT is at a near-term crossroads:

Last update concluded:

[W]e do have five clear waves down (an impulse) in NYA, which means that unless that impulse is wave C of the noted expanded flat, it will be followed by another impulse down that is equal to or greater in length than the first. We cannot entirely rule out all bull options, but if this is the start of blue 3, that next impulse down will be a nested third wave and thus fairly brutal.

And bulls have done nothing to help their case, so that stands for now.  Trade safe.

SPX and NYA: What

So here's something I don't get to say very often:  The "passable impulse down" I mentioned last update was a bust, and SPX cleared the noted invalidation level (3965).

Price is still hugging the near-term channel I drew on March 17 -- for now, anyway, but bears probably need that to be a diagonal (approximated by the red and blue lines below) so it doesn't threaten a breakout.  If it does break out, it may head toward the confluence shown on the third chart.

Nothing like a near-term miss to get one thinking, so the NYA chart does mention the bull option (in passing -- for now, I'm not focusing on it):

SPX is in similar shoes to NYA.  In a perfect world for bears, though, SPX stops at or before the highlighted confluence:

In conclusion, we do have five clear waves down (an impulse) in NYA, which means that unless that impulse is wave C of the noted expanded flat, it will be followed by another impulse down that is equal to or greater in length than the first.  We cannot entirely rule out all bull options, but if this is the start of blue 3, that next impulse down will be a nested third wave and thus fairly brutal.  Today is, of course, a Fed day, so watch your back out there, and trade safe.

SPX and Gold Updates

Last update called attention to the fact that SPX had reached the upper boundary of its near-term red channel and mentioned that we might have three waves up off the 3808 low.  SPX dropped lower from there, and has now formed a passable impulse down, potentially for all or part of wave i down.  The key level for bears to hold for that potential first wave down to remain on the table is 3965.

Big picture, nothing has changed, and blue (3) remains the leader unless/until the market tells us otherwise.

Finally, a quick update of the gold chart, which we haven't looked at in quite some time.  Gold has formed three waves down (the inverse implication of the near-term SPX chart -- three waves can mark a completed countertrend correction):

In conclusion, not much to add to the past few updates, except a reminder that if blue (3) is indeed underway, this market should start to get ugly over the next few weeks.  Trade safe.