SPX, NYA, BKX: It's a Mad Mad Mad Mad World (or whatever)

The market continues to defy bears (and reality) and head higher.  Bears haven't run out of real estate just yet, but NYA is getting close, and bears need to show up soon if they want to prevent a breakout:

I haven't updated BKX in a few months, and this seems like a good time to do so:

The SPX "immediate" bear count will come under fire if NYA breaks out:

And the SPX bull count, which would also function as another version of the bear count (with both the bull and bear options being in agreement for a time; see annotation):

In conclusion, still waiting on NYA to either reverse or break out in order to clear the air.  Trade safe.

SPX, COMPQ, NYA: Party Like It's 2020

So far, nothing much seems to be going for bears, as every decline is bought like it's still 2020 and the market is expecting massive inflation from all the "stimulus."  On Monday, I noted that there was not yet a confirmative impulsive decline, and the market never formed one (and apparently never will again lol).

NYA continues to edge toward its key zone:

COMPQ is still in "back-test" territory:

And SPX is adding that "next wave up."  Whether it will end there or if that will only end up being the midpoint on a larger bull(ish) wave remains to be seen:

In conclusion, still watching NYA as the most significant of the current hurdles, so it's about "do or die" time for the bears.  Trade safe.

SPX, NYA, COMPQ: The Eye of the Storm

Last update concluded:  

[A]s I've stated previously, unless and until NYA breaks out over its blue (C) high, I'm continuing to give bears the benefit of the doubt. While there are several near-term options, if NYA is to hold its key high, then there's just not a lot of room for bulls to run much higher. If I'm wrong, then I'm wrong, but right now, this makes more sense to me than the bull alternative.

On Friday, SPX initially rallied strongly, but it then reversed equally-strongly and gave back all its gains on the day.  This is normally not a bullish development -- which, in essence, means there's no change from Friday's update.  So, I've updated the charts with the latest price action, but as I've outlined several times recently, I continue to favor the bears until proven otherwise -- thus, unless and until the market "proves otherwise" (or, conversely, until such a time as there's a more confirmative reversal), there's still nothing new to say about the charts.

NYA:

SPX near-term:

SPX intermediate term:

COMPQ very long term:

Trade safe.

SPX, COMPQ, NYA: Hope Springs Eternal

SPX and NYA have both been preliminarily rejected from the lower edges of their respective inflection zones.  As of yet, we do not have an impulse down to confirm anything, but it certainly looks possible that one will develop.

Although it's a hard market to say this in:  I continue to lean toward the bears until proven otherwise.  The question at the micro level is whether they're ready to show up again immediately.  As noted above, it's entirely possible they do, especially given that COMPQ has hit an ancient resistance line:

NYA:

SPX big picture:

Finally, I'd be remiss if I didn't disclose that SPX does have multiple near-term options here, even for the broader bear case:

In conclusion, the market is playing for keeps around these levels, and as I've stated previously, unless and until NYA breaks out over its blue (C) high, I'm continuing to give bears the benefit of the doubt.  While there are several near-term options, if NYA is to hold its key high, then there's just not a lot of room for bulls to run much higher.  If I'm wrong, then I'm wrong, but right now, this makes more sense to me than the bull alternative.  Trade safe.

SPX, NYA, COMPQ: Second Verse, Same as the First

The market barely moved during Monday's short session, so I'm not going to strain myself trying to think of something new and exciting to say, since there's literally nothing to add to Monday's update.  I have updated the charts with the latest price action, but there's nothing else to do beyond that.

In italics is the same text from Monday's update:

SPX cleared its most recent high on Friday, as did NYA, putting NYA closer to its significant level (blue (C)).

SPX may have cut its last fourth wave a bit short -- though could still form an expanded flat to create a larger fourth wave:

And last but not least, COMPQ is finally back testing the very long-term trend line we've been watching for a year or so:

In conclusion, not much to add to the past few updates. We're still watching 16223 in NYA closely.  I look forward to the day when the market allows me to stop repeating myself,

I look forward to the day when the market allows me to stop repeating myself.

Trade safe.

SPX, NYA, COMPQ: Back Test

SPX cleared its most recent high on Friday, as did NYA, putting NYA closer to its significant level (blue (C)).

SPX may have cut its last fourth wave a bit short -- though could still form an expanded flat to create a larger fourth wave:

And last but not least, COMPQ is finally back testing the very long-term trend line we've been watching for a year or so:

In conclusion, not much to add to the past few updates.  We're still watching 16223 in NYA closely.  Don't forget today is a short session, and have a safe and enjoyable Fourth of July.  Trade safe.

SPX and NYA Updates

There's little change from the past few updates, but last update I did state that my lean was that the current bounce was wave 2/B, and that lean is going to be tested today.  While B-waves aren't subject to the same rules as second waves, the second wave option would be off the table north of 4449 (the B wave would not).  

The micro count outcomes above have no impact on the bigger picture:

NYA is the market that has greater potential to impact the big picture -- if it were to sustain trade north of the blue (C) high, then that would signal slow going for bears for a while.  That could either take the form of a diagonal, which would need at least several more weeks of sideways up, or a bull nest (or a b-wave high -- but let's not worry too much about these unless/until bulls break the blue (C) high!  In a perfect world, they won't break it at all.)

In conclusion, not much to add to recent updates.  Don't forget that Monday is a short session (close is at 1 p.m.), and Tuesday is the Fourth of July, so the market is closed.  Trade safe.