SPX Target Capture Trifecta

SPX captured its target zone for the third time in a row, then reversed (for the third time):

As noted on the chart, bulls do still have a "gotcha" option, where they could revisit the current 2/B high before declining again, but presuming SPX breaks 5390, then that would most likely resolve bearishly.  If it holds 5390, then anything is possible.  Not much else to add beyond that, but do continue to keep in mind that big picture, we were looking for a possible MAJOR top when the market topped, so the most bearish long-term potential is that we just ended the bull market.  Trade safe.

SPX, INDU, COMPQ: Fed Day and Targets

Today is, of course, a Fed day, which means that precisely at high noon (plus two hours), Jerome Powell will emerge from his pod and fight a dramatic Duel to the Death with the financial press corps, armed with only his notes and a Browning .50 caliber heavy machine gun. (He keeps that hidden in the podium most of the time.)  Everyone is expecting the Fed to keep rates steady -- but they're also expecting the Fed to provide lots of Happy Talk about how things are going swimmingly and thus hint at rate cuts coming down the line.  

If this Happy Talk doesn't happen, then keep an eye out for the .50 cal.

Chart-wise, it's still a case where nothing of any technical significance has happened since Friday's update, but don't worry, I'm not going to publish more bunny pictures today.  That was a one-time thing (unless I decide to use that joke again in the future, in which case... anyway, no promises).  Despite SPX remaining range bound, I am able to provide some potential target zones (one of them being the same zone I mentioned on the forum on Monday):

Keep in mind that in the event SPX is done correcting, then Target 3 would be "a retest of the all-time highs, plus/minus."

INDU is still not entirely playing along with the bear ideas, which continues to make me feel like at least some degree of bear caution is called for:

Of note, COMPQ did make a slight new low yesterday, which makes it look a bit more like maybe it will want another wave down after this bounce, so it and INDU still feel like they may not be on the exact same page, with SPX somewhere in the middle.  Not much to add beyond that.  Trade safe.

INDU and Bunny Updates

Literally nothing happened in SPX since last update.  

Which means nothing has changed -- so today, we should just enjoy these cute bunny pictures:

As we can see from these images, there's really no reason to stress about doing an update with nothing to add today.  We should just reread Friday's update if we have any questions.  

The only thing worth mentioning today that's different from Friday would be INDU:

In conclusion, we can see that, although there appear to be four bunnies in the second picture, all four look pretty much the same, so we can't be 100% certain it's not one bunny in four different poses.  Also, INDU managed to get back above blue resistance, at least for now, which gives bulls some options if it sticks.  No other change beyond that.

SPX, INDU, COMPQ: Another Target Capture

Since last update, SPX captured its first downside target zone (immediately after capturing its upside target zones!):

I didn't update the COMPQ chart, because I didn't want to redo all the annotations (which delete themselves any time I update it), but this appears to be an impulse down.  The bull counterargument here would be that said impulse is wave c of an expanded flat, and that's not impossible:

The bear counter would be the long-term, which continues to look iffy for bulls:

INDU has given a bearish signal with its breakdown and failed back-test of blue, but not yet overlapped black horizontal support, so it's only a partial signal so far and thus still can be subject to being reversed:

In conclusion, the simplest version of things is this:  SPX reached its first downside target and bounced; if bulls can continue that bounce, then we can't rule out new ATHs coming.  But, if bears can sustain a breakdown at yesterday's low, things are going to start to look bleaker for bulls.  Worth noting that yesterday's bounce sure felt like a short-covering rally.  Trade safe.

SPX, INDU, COMPQ: Upside Targets Captured

Last update anticipated that no matter what pattern SPX was in, it would likely head toward two possible targets, both of which it then captured before reversing:

Futures are suggesting a new swing low for SPX -- if that holds and if COMPQ does the same, then COMPQ in particular is going to start to look pretty impulsive off its suspected wave 5 high:

INDU has been the market that's causing misgivings, but if it can overlap the black line, and especially the red line, it's going to have a more bearish technical look (though then we'll have to worry about the ATH as a b-wave, we'll burn that bridge when we get there).

In conclusion, SPX captured its upside targets and reversed.  COMPQ hit noted resistance and reversed and will start to look impulsive with a new low.  INDU is still a bit of an outlier, but maybe that will resolve soon, too, we'll see.  Bears do still need to sustain new lows in COMPQ and SPX first, though.  Trade safe.

SPX and COMPQ: Inflection Zone at Friday's Low

On Friday, I let three charts do the talking, while the SPX chart noted that the decline could be closing in on completion.  Futures are currently indicating a big bounce from Friday's low, so here's the updated state of things:

COMPQ ended up dropping right to its new "or 4?" label before bouncing:

In conclusion, Friday's low (give or take) is probably a pretty important inflection point, since it could mark three down in COMPQ and the bottom of the c-wave of an expanded flat correction in SPX.  If bulls are still in the near-term driver's seat, this is an opportunity for them to run it back up to new ATHs.  If bears can instead sustain trade below Friday's low, it might indicate a shift, as that would start to look like 5 down in COMPQ, at least.  Trade safe.

SPX, INDU, COMPQ: Three Charts and the Truth

Last update discussed the conundrum, today I want to drill down and use the charts to illustrate it, and to discuss some things that may help map the way going forward -- starting with INDU.  INDU's near-term pattern is one of the main things keeping my bearish angels in check right now; the annotation explains why:

SPX discusses the options:

And with any luck, COMPQ may help point the way going forward:

In conclusion, those three charts probably say just about everything there is to say right now.  Trade safe.