SPX, COMPQ, INDU, NYA: Careful Out There

Last update noted that bulls had been put on notice, today's update will go into more detail on the potential patterns.  I was having weird intermittent internet issues this morning, which cost me a couple charts, so today's update will be short on words, and we'll let the chart annotations do the talking.

Let's start with SPX:

Next up is COMPQ:

INDU:

And finally, NYA:

In conclusion, as we've known for a while, the market is potentially into the final fifth wave up from the 2022 lows, so it's a tricky position for bulls.  Thus far, we have no confirmation of an impulsive turn, so whether or not that was "it" for the bull market or not remains to be seen.  Given the pattern in the charts at this exact moment, I'd probably still rather see another wave up, but it's maybe 50.5/49.5 at this point, so a larger decline would not come as a surprise at all.  And against the possibility that the bull market is over, we don't want to get caught trying to pick up nickels in front of a freight train.  I'm far more certain that "the top is closer than the bottom," so be careful out there and trade safe.

COMPQ and INDU: Bulls Put on Notice

In Monday's update, I wrote:

If it breaks down before then, then there are still options for that decline to be a C-wave, but we'll have to start watching things more carefully, because, as we know (and as illustrated on the NYA chart), we are likely into a larger fifth wave. And my old personal adage is, "Never bank on fifth waves." For now, we'll continue to presume there are still higher prices out there, but I did want to illustrate that it's not a great place for complacency.

The market is now in the process of attempting a breakdown, so we do need to start watching things more carefully.  INDU is still three waves down, so it's not time for bulls to panic just yet, but the chart discusses some of the options in the event that the current decline goes on to become impulsive:

 COMPQ moved a bit higher, then reversed:

SPX invalidated its proposed triangle, but I'll present a more detailed chart on Monday.

In conclusion, we've known for a while that we were in the ballpark that a fifth wave could complete, so while it would still be nice to see one more wave up, the likelihood of that wave may be more deeply called into question if this decline becomes impulsive.  Trade safe.

SPX Update (-ish)

The market was closed the past two sessions, at least in spirit.  It went nowhere, though apparently it was open, technically speaking.

Accordingly, there's really not much to add, except to note that if this is indeed the triangle I speculated about in Monday's update, the last two sessions are what you'd expect to see.

Do be aware that there's one wacky way to count this that would have the abcd all done on the triangle and just e remaining before a breakout.  Lower probability but not impossible.  Below 5800 would take that off the table.

In conclusion, there's no real reason to update any charts at all, given the last two sessions, but I updated the SPX chart anyway.  Since nothing happened, there's nothing to add, and please refer back to the prior update for more details if needed.  Trade safe.

SPX, COMPQ, NYA, INDU: Interesting Times

I'm going to mainly let the charts do the talking today.  Let's start with COMPQ, which finally broke above its red resistance line.  For a minute, anyway.

Next is NYA, mainly to illustrate why things are getting a little more interesting now:

Next is INDU, whose near-term outlook is the same:

Finally, SPX, with one potential outlined:

In conclusion, in my perfect world, SPX would go on to form a triangle fourth wave here, launch out, hit its target, and reverse.  If it breaks down before then, then there are still options for that decline to be a C-wave, but we'll have to start watching things more carefully, because, as we know (and as illustrated on the NYA chart), we are likely into a larger fifth wave.  And my old personal adage is, "Never bank on fifth waves."  For now, we'll continue to presume there are still higher prices out there, but I did want to illustrate that it's not a great place for complacency.  Trade safe.

INDU and COMPQ Updates

Since last update, the market declined slightly, but still not a ton to add to the last few weeks of updates.

COMPQ dropped down to its support line, which has held so far:

INDU fell back through blue for the moment, but is holding the black channel:

In conclusion, as noted for weeks, there's probably still at least one more 4/5 unwind needed to new highs, so we may have just seen (or still be within) that fourth wave, with five up to new highs still to come.  After that, things will start to get a little trickier again.  Of course, if there are breakdowns before then, then either a deeper fourth wave is unfolding or something more bearish -- but we'll worry about that if it becomes necessary.  Trade safe.

INDU and COMPQ: "No SPX for You!"

As those of you who own tape measures have no doubt noticed, the market has gone nowhere since Oct. 14, choosing instead to grind sideways.  Which means there's still nothing to add, really.  Which means:

So today will simply focus on a zone below the market and a zone above the market (2nd chart):

COMPQ's relevant zone is above the market:

That's it, those are the next two zones to watch, as they have been for the last couple weeks.  Trade safe.

SPX and COMPQ: A Look at the Long Term

The last few updates have talked about SPX likely still needing to unwind higher and blah blah blah but let's talk about something interesting today.  Over the weekend, a reader requested I update the long-term SPX chart from March 11, and by golly, I thought that was a good idea.

On that chart, I had mentioned (in March) it appeared we might be in an extended fifth higher, whose textbook target was 6380-6450.  And while that seemed kind of ludicrous at the time, SPX isn't so far off from those levels now.

So what would happen if we were in that count?  Well, we'd head higher into the election (as I mentioned several updates ago), maybe beyond, then we'd peak and head back to ~5120.  Then we'd retest the high.  Then we'd drop like a rock to ~3810.

So that would be interesting and fun.  But let's see how things go in the meantime, as COMPQ is still a little bit of a thorn in bulls' paws:

In conclusion, not much to add to the near-term discussions from the past couple weeks, but it's probably a good time to return focus to the long-term count and keep an eye on how that develops.  Trade safe.