SPX and INDU Updates

Last update noted:  

The most recent decline has been a little slow (relative to its position in the structure), so that does leave open the potential of the larger b-wave and bounce discussed on the chart. But it's not an assurance of such, because sometimes things like a "wave i of 3" can start a little slow.

Since then, SPX briefly broke down, but it didn't stick... which leaves open both potentials discussed on Monday (wave i of 3, with this bounce being ii of 3 -- or the larger b-wave, with this bounce being larger c):

It will also be interesting to see if INDU gets back to its long-term trend line and whether that serves as resistance if it does:

In conclusion, the two main options presented in the prior update both remain viable, for now, so we'll see which one the market chooses.  Trade safe.

SPX, INDU, COMPQ Updates

Since last update, SPX, COMPQ, and INDU have all broken their prior swing lows.  This confirms the "possible b-wave low" discussed on January 6:

The most recent decline has been a little slow (relative to its position in the structure), so that does leave open the potential of the larger b-wave and bounce discussed on the chart.  But it's not an assurance of such, because sometimes things like a "wave i of 3" can start a little slow.

I've added some potential targets to the COMPQ chart, if things break here:

And INDU's pivot zone seems to be working well enough.  The question here, as with the others (though this chart illustrates it more graphically) is whether the market will want another stab at the pivot line first or not:

In conclusion, bears continue to signal that they retain the upper hand for now, at least in the bigger picture.  The main question is whether the market will choose a delay tactic or not.  Trade safe.

SPX, NYA, COMPQ: In Case I Was Too Subtle

Not much new since last update, but I did want to revisit a statement I made back on January 3, because I sometimes convey things maybe a bit too subtly.  The statement I'm referring to specifically was the comment "for now, we'll give that lower weight."  What preceded that was a discussion of the bear options as the (implicit) "higher weight" value.  In other words, I've been suspecting that we've already seen an "end to the bull run for now, or even of the entire bull market."  That's the assumption I'm currently operating from, but I wanted to reiterate that, in case it wasn't clear from the comment I made on Jan. 3:

Beyond that, nothing to add to the SPX chart.  I still tend to suspect we're headed for a break of the prior low and hence the 5500s.  If bulls wanted to annoy everyone, they would create another wave up here, possibly as part of an ending diagonal c-wave higher (with i of c already completed, and ii of c the decline since).

Finally, COMPQ is also unchanged:

In conclusion, if bulls were going to pull out an upset, they're probably running out of real estate in which to do so.  As noted on the NYA chart, that can't be ruled out yet, but it does appear to be the underdog.  Trade safe.

SPX, COMPQ, INDU, NYA: Fairly Clear

Not much to add from the past couple updates, but we are increasingly seeing signs that bears may be able to run with the ball from here.  Let's start with COMPQ:

SPX tagged last update's blue trend line on the nose and then gave up:

INDU still remains below is key pivot zone:

And NYA continues to illustrate how the market could have recently completed a larger wave, perhaps at significant wave degree:

In conclusion, bears still haven't broken the key levels they need, but they are doing what we'd expect them to do if that was where the market was ultimately headed.  As noted on that SPX chart, that would suggest a trip down into at least the 5500s over the nearer term.  As INDU and SPX both also note, however, the zone above which bears might want to back off looks reasonably clear.  Trade safe.

SPX, COMPQ, NYA: A Critical Time

Friday was the type of "gap up and then stumble gradually higher day" that is known for its ability to cause traders to quit en masse and pursue new careers in less demanding fields, such as spearfishing, so there's not a ton to add to the prior update.  Maybe the most noteworthy near-term chart at the moment is COMPQ:

NYA is still in the same basic place as last update:

And SPX has now given itself just a little breathing room:

I'll add one more chart for consideration, but the caveats are outlined on the chart:

In conclusion, not much else to add from Friday's update.  This is potentially a critical time in the market, as bulls need to hold the general zone of the most recent lows.  A sustained breakdown could signal significant bear moves on the horizon.  Trade safe.

NYA, INDU, SPX: Happy New Year

Last update (December 18) warned that it was "getting hairy out there" and included this:

6035 can no longer be the bottom of wave C of a triangle. That low is either wave (a) of said C wave, wave a of a b/2 correction to the prior leg up, or a NESTED WAVE 1 down. In other words, bulls should be very cautious on a sustained breakdown of the blue "alt: a/1" low.

As it turned out, bulls did need to be very cautious and the nested wave 1 down appears to have been the reality, given the incredible speed of the decline after the breakdown of the blue alt. a/1 low.

The NYA chart I published then showed how the rally could be over if the final wave had been a diagonal, so let's update that chart now:

 NYA again:

INDU's chart contained a warning about the black trend line, and INDU remains below it, having so far backtested it and failed to claw back above:

Finally, SPX's chart is intended to help cut through the noise:

In conclusion, it is indeed possible that the bull market has ended, but it's very much up in the air yet and not a forgone conclusion.  So, bulls should be very, very cautious, but they're not dead by any means yet.  The charts above will help with determining where the market heads from here.  Trade safe.

NYA, SPX, INDU: Getting Hairy Out There

Okay, so since last update, a few things have happened.  Let's start with NYA, which topped and reversed where I'd anticipated, but then just kept dropping:

The two main options for NYA probably look something like this:

Next, we have INDU, which is back to its key breakout line:

Finally, the near-term SPX decided to also get a little goofier.  I haven't updated the chart, because there are too many options now -- but 6035 can no longer be the bottom of wave C of a triangle.  That low is either wave (a) of said C wave, wave a of a b/2 correction to the prior leg up, or a NESTED WAVE 1 down.  In other words, bulls should be very cautious on a sustained breakdown of the blue "alt: a/1" low.  Note that under the most bullish counts, that low could break somewhat, without too much technical damage immediately, but it would certainly be cause for caution.

In conclusion, the market apparently got wind of my holiday schedule and is trying to make things interesting to keep me from relaxing.  Which brings me to: I'll be traveling with my family starting tomorrow and running through Christmas week.  Due to the way the calendar lays out this year, there are only 4 remaining Monday/Wednesday/Fridays that don't fall on holidays anyway, so I'll be taking those off and returning after the New Year.  I wish everyone a safe holiday, a Merry Christmas, and a prosperous New Year.

In the event there's something Earth-shattering going on toward the end of Christmas week, I may try to publish a special update.  But I'm really hoping that's not necessary just yet!  Trade safe, and have a great holiday!