SPX, INDU, COMPQ: One for Da Bears

Last update looked at the bull micro-count, so it's only right to look at the bear micro count in this update.  The bear micro count is for a WXY off what I'm calling the "Trump Tariff Low":

WXYs (when correcting bear waves) consist of three ABCs -- two that trend higher, and an intervening ABC that trends lower.

The bull option remains the same as noted last update:

And COMPQ has, so far, been rejected from its standing upside inflection zone:

Today is, of course, a Fed day, so the market will likely decide the winner between these counts in fairly short order.  Trade safe.

SPX and COMPQ: Two Very Interesting Charts

There are two charts that are really worth looking at today.  The first is COMPQ, which has now bounced all the way from its downside inflection zone to its upside inflection zone -- both of which were drawn on this chart more than a month ago:

The next chart of major interest is SPX.  I've illustrated on this chart that the rally can be counted as an impulse.  As long time readers know, usually when I see an impulse, I'm fairly comfortable calling it out as such and drawing conclusions from it -- but in this case, I'm not at all confident in it, because the preceding pattern is so... odd.  Nevertheless, it's there, and my job is to share what I see.  So here it is:

In conclusion, COMPQ has rallied all the way up to its upside inflection, and SPX is sporting a potentially complete or nearly complete wave (impulse?) -- so we should at least be alert to the potential for a turn lower from this general zone.  In a bear's perfect world, it would be the start of the next major wave down -- but in a bull's perfect world, it would just be wave (2)/B down, and hence only a correction.  We'll watch carefully to see what develops from here.  Trade safe.

SPX, NYA, INDU Updates

A couple hits since last update:

1.  The back-test of the red trend lines occurred.

2.  The April 23 upside target was ~captured.

SPX is in the ballpark of another POSSIBLE resistance zone, but so far, bulls have been lumbering right through all of those.  And that successful back-test of the breakout is not helpful to bears.  Every now and then, though, you will see a successful back-test that leads to one more push which then falters, so it's not a slam dunk just for bulls just yet... but it's still encouraging for them.

NYA is back to its black line:

And INDU has finally gotten on the same page as everyone else:

In conclusion, keep in mind that the most bullish possible pattern here would be a bull nest to new highs.  And while the market isn't quite behaving right for that at the moment (there should be more upside momentum), that can change in a heartbeat.  On the flip side, it does keep open the option that we're dealing with something else -- at least, as of this second, that's an option.  But either way, bears aren't doing anything to get them excited or even really have them do anything other than watch and wait for an impulsive turn -- again, at least, for now.  Trade safe.

SPX and INDU: Some Details on the Near Term

The market hasn't done much in recent days, so not a lot to add to the big picture, but I do want to call attention to some things on the near-term SPX chart:

And INDU still remains as something of a thorn in bulls' sides for now:

Nothing new has happened beyond that.  Trade safe.

SPX, COMPQ, and INDU: Mixed Market

Since last update, SPX has sneaked over its potential trend resistance lines, so bears have a brief window to reverse this or else they probably need to await an impulsive decline (because the pattern does allow for an ongoing rally if there's no reversal soon):

The two markets keeping this from being a slam-dunk for bulls (yet) are INDU and COMPQ.  INDU first:

And COMPQ, which still hasn't back-tested its long-term uptrend break:

In conclusion, SPX has not gone bears way and they need to be aware of that.  They probably need a reversal fairly soon to keep their near-term (and perhaps even intermediate term) hopes alive.  Trade safe.

SPX, COMPQ, NYA: Upside Inflection Zone

So the market has now bounced from its downside trend support zone all the way up to its upside trend resistance zone.  We should pay attention to the winner of this battle:

Note that COMPQ is still a ways from getting back into its uptrend... but again, don't ignore it if it DOES get back in:

Finally, NYA is also in the zone of potential resistance (from here to horizontal black):

In conclusion, if bears still have gas in the tank, they probably want to mount a defense of these zones.  If they can't, then we should not ignore that -- so let's see how the market handles this.  Trade safe.

SPX and NYA: Fun

Last update noted that even though the market had perfectly followed the ~10-day-long projected triangle path, that didn't guarantee that we were in that particular triangle (the market can be funny this way -- sometimes you can "see" what it wants to do, but WHY it wants to do that is up for grabs).

There's not much a bear can do in such a situation, really, other than cover once the market moved back above the lower boundary of the triangle (which was the first warning that something else may be afoot).

IF this is still to be a triangle (still unclear), then here's what it would need to do:

Note that the last rally leg (on the Trump tariff announcement) was so large that it's not impossible for the current rally to be WAVE 5 OF C of a corrective bounce off the crash low.  That said, it's very hard to trade that, so I wouldn't be inclined to front-run it personally.  If the current leg breaks 5482 and then forms an impulsive decline, then I might take a small stab at it in that case.  Not trading advice, just how I treat ambiguous things like this.

I concluded Monday's update by reiterating the following warning (then I'd like to highlight that chart again):

As we can see on the chart above, as of right now, SPX is still above its long-term uptrend lines -- meaning (as I mentioned last week) it is still technically in an uptrend, unless and until bears can sustain trade and closes at lower prices.  Once again, the recent low is an inflection zone that extends a bit lower (so another minor new low would still be within the inflection) -- because we're still at three waves down so far. 

Finally, I want to update the NYA chart with more detail.  I talked about this pattern in broad strokes last month, but here it is in all its glory:

In conclusion, the jury is still out on whether this recent "tariff crash" was just another bull market correction or the start of something more serious.  Bears still need to sustain trade and closes below the long-term uptrend on the second chart to really get things shifted firmly into their court.  Trade safe.