SPX and NYA: March 2024 Target Captured

So for the last, what, two months, three months (? - I don't even know, seems like forever), the updates have basically been "the trend is up, so unless the channels break down, bears should stay out of the way."  And so I've been doing my darnedest to keep these updates at least vaguely interesting in the meantime, but there's only so much I can do when the market gets like this.

Anyway, we finally have something noteworthy to mention, in that SPX has captured that crazy target from March 11, 2024 (which, uncharacteristically, seems like forever ago now):

Next up, bears will still need to break down from the channel to get anything going:

NYA continues to hint that there's probably still at least one more 4/5 unwind higher needed:

In conclusion, the capture of any target does serve as an early *potential* warning, but note that the target zone stretches up to 6450, and it's not uncommon for the market to make several stabs into a target zone before deciding whether it wants to reverse or punch through.  Combined with NYA, we can probably anticipate that bulls still have some gas left in the tank for now.  In the event SPX were to create a convincing breakdown of its noted support channel, then we might consider other options -- but for now, there's really no compelling reason to.  Trade safe.

SPX and NYA Updates: Finally, a CHANGE!

Last update noted that all remained quiet on the Western front, and for now, that persists.  There is finally a change worth mentioning, however, and always best to catch these early (as we have).  The market has been hinting that it's establishing a new channel that supersedes the old red channel:

Big picture, we can't forget that old long-term "crazy extended fifth" target from a year and a half ago... because we're almost there (!):

Finally, NYA intimates that the market may need at least one -- possibly two -- mid-sized fourth and fifth wave unwinds higher before bears get a fair shake again:

In conclusion, blue is the new near-term channel to watch (first chart).  Beyond that, still no signs that the rally is over just yet... but there may be opportunities for bears upcoming soon enough (unless this beast extends again).  Trade safe.

SPX and Temperature Updates: No Change

Was the market even open on Friday?  There are rumors that it was, but no one seems to know for certain and the charts can't confirm or deny, since there was essentially no price movement.  We'll assume, for sake of argument, that it was open.  However, the truth is, the market action of Friday barely justifies my effort to even produce this update.  But I shall plow ahead diligently nonetheless, with a confident proclamation that I would normally only deploy defensively in urban environments.  Which is: 

"No change."  Sorry.  I only carry credit cards!

So, first up is SPX -- same as Friday:

To add some variety, next up is a temperature chart from 1975.  It's interesting to compare this chart to modern charts, which portray the temperature from 1940 to 1970 quite differently, despite the fact that time travel has yet to be invented... which means they have to be working from the exact same extant dataset (we can't go back in time and take new measurements, after all).  Yet somehow the same core data is portrayed quite differently nowadays:

And finally, SPX again.  My comment on Friday was: "Bigger picture, this is still a potential resistance zone, so we'll see if SPX does any more backing and filling here or not:"

In conclusion, obviously there is nothing to add since Friday -- or really, to most of the last few weeks.  Trade safe.

SPX Update: And It Was

Last update noted that SPX was probably in a fourth wave that would ultimately resolve to new all-time highs, and that played out:

Bigger picture, this is still a potential resistance zone, so we'll see if SPX does any more backing and filling here or not:

Beyond the successful resolution of the expectations I held for the past week, nothing much else to add yet.  The trend remains up for now.  Trade safe.

SPX Update: Near-term Potentials

Last update noted that SPX had reached resistance and might react to that, and it did, dropping fairly steeply over the near-term yesterday.

Over the intermediate term, SPX is still above red trend support:

And over the near-term, SPX appears to have formed a b-wave high -- the main question is whether that b-wave subdivides as a wxy, in which case the lower target on the chart below become appropriate.  If it didn't subdivide, it could make a new all-time high fairly directly:

In conclusion, the best fit right now is that SPX is undergoing a fourth wave correction, which is either nearly complete or will require a trip toward 6160-72.  In the event that lower zone were broken substantially, then we might need to reassess -- but for now, the fourth wave appears to be the most parsimonious explanation.  Trade safe.

SPX and COMPQ: Resistance

The market has continued to be less exciting than reading a manual on toilet installation, but apparently they're still ringing the opening bell everyday, so here we are.  

Despite Friday's attempt to bore everyone to death, let's start with an interesting chart of SPX:

COMPQ has reached a similar (though not quite as old) line:

Finally, the near term SPX chart shows the first zone bulls will need to hold/bears will want to break (on a sustained basis):

In conclusion, the market has paused for a few sessions at resistance, so let's see how it handles this next.  Trade safe.

SPX Update: In the Event of a Water Landing, Your Seat May Be Used as Shark Food

Last update continued the trend of the past few weeks, which is basically just "higher as long as the trend channel holds" and the market again delivered, with SPX making another new all-time high.  There is some indication that it's still possibly unfolding a correction, though, so it might test the red trendline, and could even break it slightly. 

I think we really only need that chart today, since there's nothing to add on any other recent charts at the moment.  Again, keep in mind that a minor break of the trend channel would be okay for bulls -- as long as SPX doesn't sustain that breakdown.  Trade safe.