SPX, COMPQ, INDU: The Least Exciting Market in History

The market once again did nothing, as it's been doing for almost three months now.  

INDU did test the blue trend line again, so I guess that's a thing.  It was enough to make an annotation on the chart, at least.  I mean, honestly, I didn't really NEED to make an annotation about it -- I think my threshold for what gets annotated is just low at the moment, because there's been nothing worth annotating in like 10 days.

SPX barely moved in the last two days:

Same with COMPQ:

In conclusion, there is, of course, nothing to add to the past... what?  Couple of weeks of updates?  Three months of updates?  I mean, really, we're still in the "will it/won't it?" zone for that expanded flat I outlined (in SPX) way back on December 8, 2025.  And I've since covered the bull case and bear cases several times in the event the market ever leaves this zone.  So yeah, just not a lot to say that hasn't been said three or four times by now.  

I guess on the plus side, some analysts have undoubtedly spent the last three months screaming day in and day out that something or other is "imminent!" and they've all been wrong (I'm not thinking of anyone in particular, I'm just guessing based on ~30 years of experience).  We've avoided that game, at least, so we've got that going for us.

Anyway, did you hear the one about the Fed Governor?  Trade safe.

SPX, COMPQ, INDU: No Change

The market remained in a holding pattern on Friday, so there's nothing to add to the last three or four updates.

Everything is basically in the same place.

INDU:

SPX:

COMPQ:

So far, bulls are holding what they need to.  The last few updates have covered why they want to continue that and what could happen if they don't, so please refer back to them if you missed those discussions.  Trade safe.

SPX, INDU, COMPQ: The Thin Blue Line Between Correction and Bull

Last update talked about the need for bulls not to give too much more ground.  Let's take a deeper dive into that, because it's a bit layered.

On one layer, we have SPX, which is just going to start to look... not great if bulls let the market fall too much farther below its prior swing low.  This is because of the potential bearish 1-2 nest -- but we'll look at some more nuance in the charts that follow.

Next, let's look at some "no interpretation needed" charts.  INDU is the old standby here, and it's still above its key support levels:

Next, COMPQ's near-term chart.  There's not a lot to say about this chart that hasn't already been said to death, but there's more to discuss about COMPQ in the chart that follows this one:

The COMPQ chart that really matters it the one below, for reasons outlined on the chart:

On the COMPQ chart above, we can see that in 2024, COMPQ cracked the blue line for a minute, but recovered it quickly.  The more important observation is that every other time COMPQ sustained trade south of blue, a larger correction followed.  Which means, that's the clearest line we've got for COMPQ.  Nothing that happens ABOVE blue is anything other than noise.  If COMPQ sustains trade below it, though, we probably have to assume -- based on three prior events -- that a larger correction is underway.  Trade safe.

SPX, COMPQ, INDU: Bulls Running Out of Real Estate?

Since last update, COMPQ moved deeper into its blue support zone -- then bounced again.  Bulls probably need to keep this bounce going, or they may run out of real estate:

SPX is above near-term support, but here again, bulls probably need to keep the rally going, just because the structure is going to start looking squirrely if SPX heads too much lower:

INDU remains above long-term support:

In conclusion, even though it's hard to draw high-confidence conclusions within a multi-month noise zone (like the one we're in), my instinct is that bulls probably can't afford to give too much more ground here, or things may turn in the bears' favor for at least a while.  Trade safe.

SPX, COMPQ, INDU: The Dirty Dozen

Last update noted that the market had reached resistance "for the eighty-third time" (it was actually the eighty-fourth), and the market reacted by dropping back into the noise zone.

Worth knowing that the more often a price zone is traveled, the weaker support and resistance become in the middle of that zone and the more the edges start to be the only things that matter.  This is now literally the TWELTH time SPX has covered this same price territory in only two months, so most of the middle range buyers and sellers have been cleared, which is why price moves tend to become faster.

The net end result is that we still have to keep the expanded flat potential, which I first mentioned way back on December 8, in mind.

Bigger picture, INDU is still above its key zone, so we can't take any of this too seriously as long as that continues to be the case. Yes, it could always ultimately fail -- but we don't really have anything pointing that way until it actually does.

Near-term, INDU reacted to its last resistance zone, so no huge surprise there:

COMPQ is another one worth watching and where, IF things start breaking, we might have reason to think more things will break.  But as of right now, it also remains above key support:

In conclusion, additional near-term downside is always possible and wouldn't immediately break anything.  Sustained downside might, but given how the last two months have gone, it's probably prudent to let the market lead us to that conclusion, as opposed to imposing it on the market without evidence.  The first bear option remains the expanded flat first discussed two months and a week ago.  Trade safe.

SPX, COMPQ, INDU Updates: No Gnus is Good Gnus

I'm going to reprint last update's conclusion, because 1) we did get more upside since and 2) it's still the prevailing thesis:

In conclusion, there's still nothing to get bearish about yet.  If they want to make things complex, they could turn INDU's high into a b-wave high and run back at support again, maybe whipsawing below it to really throw everyone before rallying back up.  But they don't need to do that and could just run higher from here.  Either way, we'd still need to see sustained trade and closes before long-term support before getting particularly bearish. 

INDU rallied up to its next resistance zone, as suggested last update:

Big picture, it's put some distance between it and long-term support:

COMPQ hurdled its near-term resistance and back-tested that line at the close:

And finally, SPX is back to its recent resistance zone for the eighty-third time:

In conclusion, no change from recent updates.  Trade safe.

SPX, INDU, COMPQ: Keeping It Easy

Last update concluded that there was still nothing to get bearish about:

INDU, SPX, and COMPQ are all still above long-term support.  INDU and COMPQ are brushing against it, but bears are going to need to sustain trade and closes below that support to make this look like anything more than noise. 

Not surprisingly, everything rebounded on Friday.

The problem bears have now is that INDU and NYA (not shown) both look like three waves into their new all-time-highs, which suggests more upside on the horizon -- either directly or after more noise.

INDU has continued holding its key long-term support, which has actually made this pretty easy for everyone (or at least, for everyone who reads these updates and knew about that key zone!):

On the next INDU chart, you can clearly see the three-wave structure into the current high:

COMPQ bounced from its support zone but hasn't hurdled short-term resistance yet, so that's worth watching for near-term traders:

And finally, SPX, which never broke below its black trendline:

In conclusion, there's still nothing to get bearish about yet.  If they want to make things complex, they could turn INDU's high into a b-wave high and run back at support again, maybe whipsawing below it to really throw everyone before rallying back up.  But they don't need to do that and could just run higher from here.  Either way, we'd still need to see sustained trade and closes before long-term support before getting particularly bearish.  Trade safe.