SPX, NDX, INDU Updates

It appears that last update's "Bear 3/C" inflection point may have indeed marked the bottom of "Bear C."  Let's get right to the charts.

First up is SPX's bigger picture chart:

Next is a closer look:

NDX has already made a new high:

And finally INDU, which is lagging a bit, and the only hint of weakness in the market -- INDU does create at least a little bit of concern for bulls until that rectifies:

In conclusion, there is some resistance approaching, and there's always a chance for any rally to stall at resistance, so bears aren't without any chances at all for the moment (although there are as yet no impulsive turns, even at micro degree) -- however, if the market sustains a breakout there, then that will have to be respected as bullish until proven otherwise.  Trade safe.

SPX, INDU, NDX: Mixed Market

Friday's market declined right to Target 2, then meandered around most of the session before bouncing strongly into the close.  We currently have some mixed near-term signals among different markets, and Boeing looks set to drag the Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDU) into a deeply red open this morning -- while SPX has remained relatively flat.

But the signals aren't mixed for THAT reason, but due to the charts Friday's session left us.  Let's start with SPX:

While SPX has broken its first near-term downtrend line for the moment, it has yet to reach the black trend line that's currently crossing near the 2762 (and falling) zone.

INDU, on the other hand, didn't even manage to break its first trend line on Friday, and if it declines strongly off the open, that could "lock-in" a three wave corrective rally:

The NasDUCK 100 (NDX) finds itself in a similar position to INDU:

In conclusion, the market did rally off the target level (target levels often act as support/resistance zones), but it has not yet signaled the "all clear" for bulls, so we can't yet say if the decline is over or not.  (Bears, of course, are hoping "not," but that's not a given either yet -- and if the rally starts to show legs, then these apparent "three wave" structures could develop into something bullish.)  Either way, sustained trade below 2722 should take us toward 2700+/-, though if SPX throws in a complex correction, that next target might not be reached immediately.  Trade safe.

SPX and INDU: A Change of Character

We finally have a change of character in the market, much to the excitement of bears.  Last update noted some key levels, both of which proved to be valuable.  The first tell was INDU, which was rejected right at its key bull/bear line:

SPX then acted as confirmation.  When it violated its key downside level, its first target zone was reached easily during yesterday's session (I've since moved the "Bear 3/C" label):

In conclusion, we should expect further downside for the immediate future (first targets as noted above), and will be watching carefully to see if this decline develops into a larger impulse wave, or remains corrective.  Trade safe.

SPX and INDU: New Charts!

On Monday, the market did something different:  It traded as if it was open, and there were actual live people placing trades.  If you can imagine.  In honor of the market doing something different, I've drawn up a (drumroll please) NEW CHART!

And an edumacashunal chart (to further your continuing edumacashun), at that, which depicts the potential of a classic "expanded flat" pattern.  The most recent high is far from being a "clean" five wave structure (b-waves highs are corrective, not impulsive), which is one of the reasons we do have to be alert to this potential:

On the flip side, bulls do need to get back above the black trend line:

In conclusion, bears finally have an impulsive decline, BUT it's possible that's wave C of an expanded flat.  The most recent low (2767) is thus the first important dividing line.  Trade safe.

SPX Update: Still the Same... for Now

Last update noted that there still appeared to be little hope for bears, outside of a more complex short-term correction, but that even if there was such a move, it would still be expected to be "just a correction" (meaning the larger trend would remain "up") -- at least for the time being.

Nothing much has changed, and there are still no signals suggesting the rally has ended.  All of that can always change tomorrow -- the market can change character on a dime, and it usually announces that fairly clearly once the first turn happens.  But for right now, the uptrend is what it is and must continue to be respected as such.

In conclusion, nothing much to add (as usual lately!).  I did note a few potential resistance zones on the chart above, but as I've said many times, until we see a clean impulsive decline, the trend remains up.  Trade safe.

SPX Update: Witty Yet Germain Update Title Goes Here

Last update suggested that SPX might need another near-term wave down, and that wave down then materialized later in that session.  That now creates the appearance of a three-wave structure from the most recent high to the most recent low.  Three wave structures are generally corrective in nature (for example, an ABC is three waves -- and, of course, those waves are labeled as Wave A, Wave B, and Wave O, for "OMG this market!"  Wait,  I mean Waves A, B, and C, for "Crikey, this market!")

Let's take a look at the most recent SPX chart:

Ha ha, just a little technical analyst humor there, designed to elicit angry responses from the type of people who are offended by everything they read on Twitter.  (Now I just need to post this on Twitter, which I keep meaning to use but almost never do.)

Let's take a look at the real chart now, which, in many places, looks basically the same as the one above.  We can see the new blue channel has held the recent decline:

In conclusion, there appears to be a three wave structure heading down from 2813 to the most recent low, which suggests that the rally isn't over yet.  Bears could get a more complex correction, which would test the high then dip below that low, to work with, but it would likely still be "just a correction" (not a prediction, by the way, just an option to be aware of).  Trade safe.

SPX and INDU Updates

Let's get right to the charts.  First up, INDU is working against an obvious channel:

INDU closed near support, so we'll see how it reacts to that today.

SPX seems to have shifted into a new near-term channel -- the blue channel, which I drew on the chart a few days ago:

SPX MIGHT need another near-term wave down, but it's not entirely clear to me at this moment.

In conclusion, SPX has run a little past the dashed red resistance zone, but is presently back-testing that zone.  A sustained whipsaw back through the lower red line could generate a larger sell-off, if that were to occur.  If it holds the breakout, then it would be back to "business as usual."  Trade safe.