SPX, COMPQ, INDU: Stop Messing with the Time Already

First off, we don't do DST here in Hawaii, so it's easy to forget it exists... but some internal buzzer was apparently set and told me I'd better check this morning.  God knows how I remembered that.  Otherwise, the update would have been late.

Last update noted that the market seemed to have reached a tipping point, and while nothing happened on Friday, futures are suggesting that this morning is going to open lower, so if bulls can't recover directly, then the market may have room to run.

We're still tracking the flat below as an increasingly live option:

SPX closed in its inflection zone:

INDU is below support:

COMPQ, however, is somehow *above* support -- for now:

In conclusion, it looks like SPX will open lower... this is probably the last chance for bulls to pull a whipsaw.  If they can't, then bears may take the wheel for a while.  Trade safe.

p.s.- if anyone is asking, I would prefer we stay on STANDARD Time, not DST.  We were just on Standard Time, which puts Hawaii 5 hours behind New York.  DST puts us 6 hours behind.  And no, Standard Time isn't what makes the days short -- Winter is what makes the days short.  Here's what sunrise and sunset would look like during the summer (when the days are long) if we stayed on the actual time (Standard Time, which is determined by the sun being overhead at noon).

SPX, INDU, COMPQ: Tipping Point on Deck

So the market remains poised on the edge of a balance beam, and bulls can't give away too much more here without the whole thing falling over.

I've moved the inflection box down slightly to better reflect the current reality... but there's going to come a point -- and we may have finally reached that point -- where if it goes much lower, it's just going to run.

INDU is below its support zones at the moment:

COMPQ is above its IT zones -- for now:

Finally, the SPX expanded flat chart illustration:

In conclusion, I think bulls are finally on thin ice.  Prior to recently, I haven't been too concerned with minor new lows... but I suspect we've finally reached the point -- after months of waiting -- where if the market tips too much further and sustains a breakdown, sellers will take over.  Again, SPX might still tolerate one more short whipsaw of the most recent low -- but I don't think it will tolerate much more than that.  Trade safe.

SPX and INDU: Some Interesting Things

Some interesting things have happened since last update.  

Let's start with INDU, which captured its standing target:

SPX briefly dipped below the highlighted box I drew on Monday and found support at a trendline we've been watching for roughly a month now.

It effectively tested the trendline on this chart as well, though it didn't quite touch it:

In conclusion, bulls probably need to mount a comeback now.  If the market sustains trade below these support levels, then the market will be falling into some potential "air zones," where trend support gets thin.  Trade safe.

SPX and INDU Updates

Most of the market barely budged on Friday, leaving us in more or less the same position we were then. Maybe the most interesting thing to happen was that INDU dipped below its blue trendline, but then closed on it -- so the jury's out as to whether this will become a sustained break or a whipsaw:

SPX basically has two primary options here:

1. The current decline is part of a nested third wave down (in which case, we're likely embarking on the expanded flat we've been watching for three months).

2. The current decline is part of wave 2/b down and getting close to bouncing.

Hence the inflection zone highlighted on this chart:

Finally, the most bearish option in detail below:

Not much else to add beyond all that.  Trade safe.

SPX, INDU, COMPQ: Detailing the Bear Case (again)

So the market has remained range-bound, but I'm going to rehash some of the bear options I've covered over the past few months, since they're worth revisiting.  Let's start with the oldest one: SPX -- but I've drawn a new chart to help readers.  Because it finally feels like the right time to actually draw this chart, for whatever that ends up meaning (it just feels like the market finally wants to do something soon, one way or the other. Maybe lol.).

The old chart is unchanged:

INDU's chart discusses its options:

Finally, COMPQ again:

In conclusion, SPX's most recent rally was a clear three wave structure -- so far.  Which means bulls probably don't want to see a sustained break of 6775 now, because that would put the option of a bear nest on the table and could lead to a rapid drop.  Note that a RETEST of the ~6775 zone is still an option, so a slight break wouldn't be the complete end of the world yet.  But a sustained breakdown on accelerating momentum would point toward the expanded flat and ~6356.  Trade safe.

SPX, COMPQ, INDU: The Least Exciting Market in History

The market once again did nothing, as it's been doing for almost three months now.  

INDU did test the blue trend line again, so I guess that's a thing.  It was enough to make an annotation on the chart, at least.  I mean, honestly, I didn't really NEED to make an annotation about it -- I think my threshold for what gets annotated is just low at the moment, because there's been nothing worth annotating in like 10 days.

SPX barely moved in the last two days:

Same with COMPQ:

In conclusion, there is, of course, nothing to add to the past... what?  Couple of weeks of updates?  Three months of updates?  I mean, really, we're still in the "will it/won't it?" zone for that expanded flat I outlined (in SPX) way back on December 8, 2025.  And I've since covered the bull case and bear cases several times in the event the market ever leaves this zone.  So yeah, just not a lot to say that hasn't been said three or four times by now.  

I guess on the plus side, some analysts have undoubtedly spent the last three months screaming day in and day out that something or other is "imminent!" and they've all been wrong (I'm not thinking of anyone in particular, I'm just guessing based on ~30 years of experience).  We've avoided that game, at least, so we've got that going for us.

Anyway, did you hear the one about the Fed Governor?  Trade safe.

SPX, COMPQ, INDU: No Change

The market remained in a holding pattern on Friday, so there's nothing to add to the last three or four updates.

Everything is basically in the same place.

INDU:

SPX:

COMPQ:

So far, bulls are holding what they need to.  The last few updates have covered why they want to continue that and what could happen if they don't, so please refer back to them if you missed those discussions.  Trade safe.