SPX Update

Yesterday saw the market gap lower at the open, but that decline caught itself on the black trend channel shown in Wednesday's update.  The pattern from here does at least suggest some potential "if/then" targets.  Theoretically, anyway.  The market lately hasn't been terribly kind to its own patterns, so don't get too married to these.

In conclusion, so far bulls are continuing to hold the black trend channel, but if bears can turn the market back down and sustain a break of the black trend channel, they could potentially muster a larger correction here.  Trade safe.

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SPX Update

Monday's update noted that "today could be make or break for the near-term bear count," and it turned out to be "break."  This market continues to frustrate bears, and has yet to offer even a decent retrace.  There really isn't much to say in a market like this, other than "the trend is your friend" -- which is why I've been keeping the updates relatively short for the last couple weeks.

In conclusion, it's still a "ride the trend" market for bulls and a "watch and wait" market for bears.  I'd still prefer to see a decent retrace at some point... we talked about it briefly previously, but there was confirming momentum at the December low, and it's unusual to see that go untested.  We saw a similar situation in 2018, though, wherein the market rallied all the way up to new highs before finally testing (and in that case, breaking) the 2018 lows.  Early-on in this rally, we discussed that as a possibility here, so we'll just have to take it as it comes for now.  Trade safe.

SPX Update

Last update noted that we may finally have a near-term trend change, but that the market could rally back up for a second test of the broken channel.  On Friday, SPX managed to rally part of the way toward that goal, and overnight futures (ES - E-mini S&P futures) have since run up to within the ballpark of a channel retest.

Today could be make or break for the near-term bear count.  Other than that, not much to add.  Trade safe.

SPX Update: Channel Break

The last couple updates noted that we appeared to be approaching an inflection zone.  On Friday, I had noted that another wave up might be needed, and we did get a new high after that update -- and that may finally mark a complete wave off the December lows.

Bears, of course, want to hold the breakdown of the black channel against retests; bulls tested the channel at the close yesterday, and so far that test has been rejected.  Sometimes the market likes to create a second test of such channels, but I'm not sure if it will do so here or not.

(Please note typo:  Fib area should be 2589-2604)

In conclusion, presuming bears can make this breakdown stick, SPX may take aim at the 38% Fib retracement.  If it does, we'll see how it looks from there and decide in real-time if it looks pointed lower (toward the 50% or 62%).  Obviously, if it sustains a breakout over this month's high, then all bear bets are off.  Trade safe.

SPX and INDU Updates

Last update noted we might be approaching an inflection zone, but that the trend remains up unless and until bears forced a breakdown of the defined uptrend channel.  So far, no breakdown, and the market has meandered higher.

A bit closer view:

INDU has a similar appearance:

In conclusion, there's still nothing much to add, which is, of course, the way bulls like things during an uptrend.  Trade safe.

SPX Update: Nobody Likes This Market

Friday was another choppy day, high in noise and low in information from the market.  As a result, I still have little to add since Thursday's upside target capture.  There is a possibility that we can count five waves up in at least one degree of trend, though it's not clear to me if another wave up is required to complete that.

We'll watch the next couple sessions carefully to see if there are any signs of a downward correction.

In conclusion, this remains a challenging market for the time being.  At some point, we will get a larger downward correction, which will then allow us (hopefully) to anticipate several things:

1.  How far that correction might run.
2.  Since we'll have a completed upwards wave to examine, that will allow us to determine exactly what the market is trying to accomplish in the bigger picture, which will in turn tell us...
3.  whether to expect further upside after that downwards correction completes, and...
4.  if so, how much more upside.

In other words, things should clear up in time; ideally, significantly so.  Trade safe.