SPX Update: Patients with Patience

The last couple updates have opined that bulls continue to have the edge, and the market has since borne that out.  Presuming this wave is to become a straightforward impulse and not something weird and wacky, then it might roughly follow the path laid out below (though would likely stretch out over a bit more time than I had space to show on the chart):

Bears will get another inflection zone at the blue 3/c label, at which time it's always possible for a flat to develop (a flat is represented by the black "bear: C" at the bottom of the chart), but for now, I continue to lean toward the simplest explanation of the fifth wave running itself out now.  Be aware that after this wave completes (ideally up near the blue 5 label), then bears could finally get something significant going.  Until then, patience probably continues to remain the order of the day for bears.  Trade safe.

SPX Update: MacArthur Park in the Driving Snow

Last update expected bulls would follow through, and they have, so far, since capturing their first "Bull: 3" target from April 26 (5200-20).  Again, I didn't need to even move the label, which is nice, since it saves me approximately 6.39 seconds of work, which really adds up over time and -- if I can amass enough of these -- may ultimately allow me enough extra time for one last leisurely cup of coffee at the end of my life.  Hard to put a price on that.

As the chart above discusses, the most likely (not guaranteed, of course) pattern is still the bull pattern, which suggests we're in a small fourth wave correction now, but that SPX will go on to form an impulsive rally wave that ultimately targets 5290-5340 (okay, that target isn't on the chart because I ran out of space).  As also noted, bears are not completely without options here at the infamous, if minor, Bull: 3 Inflection, so we'll stay on our toes just in case any declines start to appear impulsive.  Trade safe.

SPX and COMPQ: The Ballad of Spiro Agnew

Since last update, bulls have retaken 5123 SPX, which implies they have more in the tank than bears right now.  There are still, of course, bear patterns that could materialize, but considering SPX turned up right at the Red C inflection (three waves down being an ABC, and ABCs being corrective patterns), it's more of a stretch to cling to bear patterns than it is to assume bulls are probably going to get what they want (new ATHs, ultimately).

COMPQ also turned higher at its inflection, and as mentioned two weeks ago, probably NEEDS another high to start looking like a more complete pattern:

In conclusion, bears could always whip out a surprise turn here, but so far, the stars appear to have aligned for bulls.  Trade safe.

SPX Update: Right Said Fed

Last update concluded:  

So, this is a do-or-die moment for bulls and bears. If bulls could turn it back up over this week's high, then they could have a bull nest underway and launch a strong rally. If bears can keep pushing lower and break 4953, then they will be getting into the ballpark of a possible impulsive decline, which could signal a larger trend change. The upcoming sessions could thus be important for setting the intermediate tone of the market. 

And the market's gone nowhere since then, largely ignoring Fed Chair Jerr Ohm Pow Well's statement that there had been a distinct "lack of progress" on inflation, while keeping rates steady.

Accordingly, there's been no real change:

Are there patterns where bulls could marginally exceed 5124, but that then turn out bearish?  Or patterns where bears marginally break 4953 before the market reverses higher?  Certainly, on both counts.  But those remain the best levels we have for the time being.  Trade safe.

SPX Update: But Who's Counting

Since last update, SPX rallied up into its first target/inflection zone, then the inflection zone did its job and SPX topped right at the "bear: c" label that I'd placed on the chart on April 26.  I didn't even need to move it for today's update:

So, this is a do-or-die moment for bulls and bears.  If bulls could turn it back up over this week's high, then they could have a bull nest underway and launch a strong rally.  If bears can keep pushing lower and break 4953, then they will be getting into the ballpark of a possible impulsive decline, which could signal a larger trend change.  The upcoming sessions could thus be important for setting the intermediate tone of the market.  Trade safe.

SPX Update: Second Verse, Same as the First

Last update expected SPX would continue higher on Friday/Monday into its upside target zones, and SPX came within literal pennies of the first of those targets (5115-40).

Accordingly, there's nothing to add to Friday's update, or any of the last few updates, for that matter.  The annotation is unchanged from 4/26:

In conclusion, today's one of those pleasant days where I don't have to scrutinize every squiggle, and there's no material change to anything we've discussed recently.  Trade safe.

p.s.-- I've used today's title at least once previously, maybe twice.  And I reserve the right to use it again in the future, goldurnit!

SPX Update: One Chart to Rule Them All

We really only need one chart today, and it's this one:

Last update concluded:  

In conclusion, bulls have so far turned the market back up where it was expected and where they needed to. Bigger picture, bulls probably continue to have the advantage unless bears can reverse this and form at least one more new low, to give the decline a more impulsive appearance.

And there's really nothing else to add since then, other than to note that we'll probably enter the ABC inflection zone either today or Monday.  Again, though, as I also wrote last update, "bears should be ready in the event the market elects to disappoint them."  Trade safe.