Monday, October 4, 2021

SPX Update: Reviving an Old Chart

On Friday, SPX broke its prior low, which now definitively confirms the ABC count posted on Sept. 24.  It then bounced hard, which was in line with both the options we've been tracking/anticipating:

On the chart above, do keep in mind that if we are entering iii of 3 down, it will be an ugly and relentless decline until it runs its course.

Stepping back a bit, there are some trend lines at/just above Friday's high that bulls will need to reclaim.  The first is the median channel line on the hourly chart: 

The second can be seen on the very-long-term chart:

The VLT chart above also may represent some form of "hope" for bulls, in that SPX still hasn't broken below the old red trend line.  In fact, it tested that line at Friday's low and bounced, so if one is still bullishly inclined, that may be the next line to trade against.  If there's a sustained break below red, then the green trend line will probably be tested.  And as I said previously, it's a bit early to say with 100% certainty that the bull is over -- I do continue to suspect that it is (at least for the foreseeable future), but I've been around long enough to know that, as Spock used to say, "there are always possibilities," my own inclinations notwithstanding.  Trade safe.

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