Thursday, September 8, 2011

Giving the Bulls Some Airtime

It always pays to play devil's advocate against yourself from time to time.  I decided to take another hard look at the wave structure of this rally, and see if the more bullish (short term, anyway) alternate count I suggested a few days ago could have any credence.  It does.  There are a few areas of the chart that are a clusterf*dge to count, but there's nothing that violates any rules.

One thing that gives this count a bit more weight, in my mind, is the way that time and price will coincide with the c of (z) target to bang it right into the top trendline to finally complete wave iv.  It's almost too perfect.  After taking a close look at this chart, I am now completely on the fence as to the preferred (see preferred count a couple posts down) vs. alternate count.  Today's action should clarify things one way or the other, and by the time I write the next update, I should be able to give a better idea of where this market's headed over the short term.  I'll try to do a live update during the day if possible.

A couple things to watch for:

1)  an upward break of the 1204 high, depending on the internal structure of that wave, might indicate wave c is unfolding

2)  a break of 1121 obliterates the alternate count (I know, that's a long way down)

Sorry I can't give you much else at the moment, the market has stalled at a place that puts both counts in limbo; tomorrow could head either direction given the current wave structure... and the advanced notice of which direction has been chosen will only come from the internal structure shown in tomorrow's price action.

As an aside, usually when I decide to give a lot of credence to an alternate count, the preferred count is within hours of proving itself correct.  If that tendancy holds, the futures will start crashing almost immediately after I post this.  ;)  Trade safe!

No comments:

Post a Comment