Monday, September 12, 2011

Intra-day Update, Short Term SPX Count

It looks like I was a tad premature in marking the end of sub-minuette 1 down.  The fourth wave at micro degree was a "running" fourth and initially looked like waves 4 and 5.  A running fourth is characteristic of an unusually strong or, in this case, weak market.  Interestingly, the market broke right through the rising trendchannel that's been support since the wave iii low, and it found support instead at the head and shoulders neckline. 

The head and shoulders pattern is now complete.  Ideally, we do not want to see the market break above the falling black trendline which connects the head and the right shoulder.  Probably not coincidentally, that trendline crosses right through our wave 2 target box.  I would expect a brief rally here, though we may test the neckline once more before moving toward the target retracement.

If the market fails to rally and instead breaks down from here, it is likely that the previously suggested scenario of nested 1-2's is playing out.

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