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Thursday, December 8, 2011

SPX and Dow Update: Just the Fax, Ma'am

Alrighty then.  Apparently, the hours I'm keeping have become too much for my body these last few days.  Many apologies.  Here's the charts I finished last night before falling asleep at my computer for the 3rd night in a row.  :(

The first is a big picture SPX chart, and shows what the market is up against at this level:



The second is a chart of the Dow, which shows my preferred view of the current market.  I believe the market has formed an ending diagonal here, and the next move should be lower -- ideally into the blue target box. 

What I've been unable to determine is whether the rally is a three-wave move, or a five-wave move.  The three-wave interpretation would imply that the November lows will be taken out in the near future (shown as the blue 2).  The five-wave interpretation would imply that there's a correction coming, followed by more upside (shown as the red A).



Below is a close-up of how to count the Dow chart and rally as being part of a bearish corrective three-wave move.  The gap open on December 5 does create something of a question mark within the count.



Below is the SPX chart, which reflects similar ambiguity, it is also labeled to reflect the three-wave interpretation -- in other words, it shows how to count the diagonal as part of a three.  In both cases, assuming my ending diagonal labeling is correct, there are lower prices due immediately.


So, in conclusion, I remain long and medium term bearish, and am now solidly short-term bearish as well.  The form taken by the (assumed) coming decline should help determine whether the recent highs are all she wrote, or if there's one more new high coming before the big leg down starts.  Trade safe.

270 comments:

  1. Keep up the good work on the behalf of us little guys.  Much appreciated!

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  2. Apparently I need a new sleep schedule.  :\

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  3. Or you may want to relocate to a different time zone.  

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  4. PL,

    You are a special person. God Bless you for your very hard and dedicated work on behalf of all of us. Regards.

    Daniel B

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  5. Lower prices due immediately, written 2 hours and 10minutes into the trading day.  The dog ate my homework and I fell asleep at the computer.  Take yourself in hand and cut out the internet porn.  People expect prompt updates .  Isthis supposedto be a professional endeavour of your hobby?  You are asking for donations...so what are they paying for?

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  6. That would help, no doubt.

      :D

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  7. How much have you donated?  That's what I thought.

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  8. we're right at the 1245ish support of PL's diagonal... i guess its do or die time...

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  9. Sorry about that pr*ck.  Water off a duck's back.  Many of us appreciate and many of us have actually read your prior posts and know that you didn't magically turn bearish 2 hours into the trading session.

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  10. Think of me as your father givingyou some sage advice.  You're a big boy, you can handle it.  Do the right thing.

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  11. If you're not part of the solution with your "people who are paying you who aren't me are expecting something" -- then you're part of the problem.  Not exactly rolling in dough over this "hobby" that's destroying my body right now.

    You're welcome. 

    God, the nerve of some people.

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  12. lol- must be Anon20's new name.

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  13. seriously? screw off Illiterate Bum. If you're going to criticize, dont even be here. We dont need you here

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  14. california's nice ;)

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  15. pretzel - if there is a chance you will fall asleep at your computer again (which is probably likely) you might consider putting an alarm clock on your desk that goes off 10 minutes before the open. So if you are there...you'll wake up. Just a thought :)

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  16. Let me see, uh-mm, I think of  you more like, wait, oh yea, an Illiterate Bum, that's it

    PL - learning a lot here - thanks

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  17. new to this blog, but following for the last month or so, two questions: 1. what are your time frames when you say short-trm, medium-term, and long-term  2. assumimg one more leg higher how low do you expect the spx to go before going up short term, have dec puts trying to decide when to close

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  18. Here's the thing Rock -- I already did that.  It isn't waking me up these last couple days.  I just really need to get some good sleep this weekend.  3-4 hours a night for however-many months is too much to handle apparently.

    Gonna go the Edgar Cayce route otherwise...  :(

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  19. Blue target box would be short term expectation.
    I do sometimes use the terms in relative fashion... but in general:

    Short term:  a few days to weeks
    Medium term:  a few weeks to months
    Long term:  a few months to years

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  20. i was thinking the same. same pretentious tone

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  21. Yeah, what's up with that ?  PL isn't an employee of the audience

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  22. Actually, I was thinking the same thing! 

    Anyhow, Pretz, thanks for the update.  I have been amazed that you have actually been able to keep up the blog with the amount of sleep deprivation that you have.  I mainly lurk, but have learned so much in the past month since I've been following the blog and all the folks on here.  Appreciate all the commentary and feedback (well, almost all).  Just wanted to reiterate my thanks, and I am sure there are many lurkers like myself hanging out and trying to learn this trading biz. 

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  23. To my real supporters:

    I do genuinely apologize for my inability to keep my eyes open these last few days.  A little catch-up sleep is apparently something I desperately need right now.  Should get it straightened out this weekend.  I'm very sorry for the update delays the last 3 days... had a perfect track record up 'til then, and I'm quite annoyed with myself. 

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  24. hey pretz, any price targets for the s&p short term?

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  25. The sleeping sage, Yes!

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  26. Your personal health and your family's well being are first, your human followers understand your humanity as well!

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  27. Pretz,
    I'm sure we all understand. Don't worry about it bud

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  28. No need to apologize, you are providing a service without requiring registration/anything. I'm sure most are thankful - ignore the shills.

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  29. SPX short term targets:  1200-1225

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  30. PL - thanks for reply and your time, learning quite a bit all my respect

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  31. btw- many thanks to Sam for showing his support for the community a few minutes ago!  Thanks, Sam.  :) 

    I do feel like I don't deserve it today, though.  :( 

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  32. A quick post focused on the charts like you did today is fine.  You are a good writer and you obviously enjoy the creative write-up, but the extra time that takes may not be worth the lost sleep.

    As a voluntary donation site you are providing great value.

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  33. PL,

    Don't sweat it!!!   If that is the worst thing that happens to you today, you will have a great day!!!  Thanks for the update!!!

    BTW.....didn't you hear my alarm!    :)

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  34. Closed out position taken shortly after open on the bounce back  up to 1,245. 

    Seems sellers cannot piece 1,245 (for now) and buyers cannot pierce 1,265 . . . for longer than like ten minutes. 

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  35. Yes - we still have Pretzel.

    When he tries to sleep we start blaring music he and the whole world hates: Milli Vanilli.

    If you want this to end, post NDX charts and hit the donate button.

    The NDXCLF (NDX Chart Liberation Front) will not be suppressed!

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  36. I don't think I would have heard a nuclear test blast this morning.  My alarm went off for 2 hours before my wife finally woke up -- from the bedroom down the hall! -- and came in and shook me awake. 

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  37. Thank you for your analysis. It has improved my wave counting tremendously. Great work.

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  38. No apologies needed. If some people want 24/7 hand holding service, Walmart is open.

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  39. Man, I'm pretty mad at you anyway, Pretz.  Seething and resentful over here just cause it's my preference to indulge feeling sorry for myself.  Ha, ha.  ;)

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  40. lmao -- you guys see what I endure for you?  Milli Vanilli is far more than should be asked of any mere mortal.  Girl, you know it's true...

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  41. I would say, just relax. Walk away, even. All these price movements now is just quantum noise. Mental clarity comes first. Rest is necessary.

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  42. no need to apologize,we understand and appreciate the hard work.You have kept me from dumping shorts at a loss when emotions says to do so.

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  43. Thanks guys -- this actually made me a little misty-eyed.  I'm sure Anon20's new name will tell me that's not what a "man" should do.  Fuck him.

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  44. Battle Royale at 1,245.  If there was a time for sellers to assert themselves with authority in the last week, this is it . . .

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  45. milli vanilli......that's harsh!

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  46. And pardon my French.  Lots of firsts this week!  I'm not usually one to use that type of language -- but every now and then it's appropriate.

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  47. lol- I went back and edited it anyway.  I'm trying to keep my commentary "family friendly," and up until today, have succeeded.  :o

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  48. PL... as always, thanks for all your work and sacrafice. Do yourself a favor and schedule some time with EVERYONE that is pulling on you... including yourself and get some sleep. Would hate to see you blow a gasket! When all this really started getting crazy several months ago, I was also working on a few hours of sleep a night and it makes you goofy.

    The last couple of months (actually, pretty much since I found your blog), I've calmed down and actually have mostly green on my tally sheet. Probably calmer cause I've found out that I'm not the only one that sees the long term outcome of all this as ... not great shall we say.

    Tomorrow might not be the best day to sleep in... but definately find one that works, grab some ear plugs and put a do not disturb sign on the door!

    Have to say that I, and I'm sure most here, am thoroughly amazed at your quality of work even with the lack of sleep... I'd have a hard time doing 1st grade math!

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  49. Reminiscent of Play Misty for Me a la Clint Eastwood? :)

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  50. Well being a self-confessed "Illiterate Bum" nobody should be surprised that he doesn't know the difference between "sage advice" and a "sad vice" LOL

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  51. Not thrilled with the shape of the decline so far. 

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  52. I'd like to see the SPX find resistance in the 1252 area here.

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  53. Lol Pretzel,

    I know you're trying to balance lots of different demands.  Staying on top of the markets and charting for your own reasons, the blog, keeping the wife at ease and trying to do it while hopefully keeping everyone happy sane and healthy while in Hawaii.  I know the pressure is on for you to leave there.

    I doubt this will mean much to you but like many people I suppose, I too have thought about living in Hawaii. At least until my most recent visit in which I somewhat experienced it.  That trip wasn't my first to HI, but was the first to Maui.  When we first arrived in Maui, we stayed at the Grand Wailea  and during that time I kept thinking how awesome it would be to live in Maui.  For the remainder of the time on Maui, I rented a home in Kihei. 

    It wasn't until staying in Kihei that feeling wore off.  We used the kitchen, so we had to buy groceries & clean up the place.  We even managed to get stuck in awful if not rare traffic jam going to Lahaina.  Somehow while doing those routine things I could understand "island fever."  Not saying you're experiencing the fever, but it sounds as though wifey is. 

    I know you've said it was a dream of yours to live there, but somehow I don't think your dream included some of what you're experiencing.  And there's no other way to say it, but that isn't the best place for this particular endeavor.

    Hope you can make the best of it while you are there!
     

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  54. You are welcome Pretzel. Your effort is valued in its entirety, which for me stretches back to March 2009, not on what may or may not have happened on any single day!. 

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  55. Longs doing a good job of playing keepaway from 1,245.  Was probably smart of them to save their firepower for when things got to here.  A break below 1,240 will be confidence blow to bulls. 

    I think the bull case got pretty well demolished today though with the announcement by Draghi that ECB moves will be tepid and piecemeal. 

    Only a matter of time now before some new headline breaks that sends the market into a tailspin again.  Which will probably happen after the Euro summit is over.

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  56. Hey! Maybe we could all switch to trading the Japanese market!

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  57. fwiw- I hated living in Kihei.  We lived there when we first moved here, and I probably wouldn't love Maui if I had to live in Kihei still.  :D

    But, yeah.  We'll probably move back sometime next year -- gots to keeps da wife happy.

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  58. USD just broke out - finally been waiting for this one for a while..

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  59. PL! Thank you for your hard work and for being awesome!

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  60. Yeah, got that right...

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  61. Not just the wife, gotta keep yourself intact too!   Interesting about Kihei,  it woke me up from chasing that costly dream. lol. 

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  62. Absolutely and exactly, I agree. Way to go, PL!

    P.S. When I finally make a bit of money, I will send you some also :-)

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  63. Personally, I don't like much about Kihei.  It's an ugly town, the weather is non-stop HOT, hardly any rain... just really hated it there.  Lahaina is nice, Kula (where we live now) is nice.  Kihei, no thanks.

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  64. Many thanks to Andras for showing support.  Much appreciated!  :)

    Donations received today will go towards buying a really LOUD alarm clock, lol. 

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  65. surprised to see a defense here......I thought it would come at 1236.

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  66. PL, AWESOME!!! SPOT ON. Sorry for yesterday's 3 vs 5 wave down question. I guess I am as confused as anybody else with this +/- 20 points side way action over the last 5 days, hence my question. I'd like to see below 1240 prints before calling it. Not much follow through on below 1245 IMHO.

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  67. Pretzel,
    Thanks a lot for your work. I'm a newbie both for EW and trading. I have already been learned a lot in the last 5-6 weeks since I visit you site. Your prompt insights are priceless.

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  68. np, Arnie, I was just messing with you yesterday.  :)

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  69. PL,are you still leaning towards your preferred count or has the bullish count percentage increased above 35%?

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  70. wonder what the rumor dujour is going to be near the close today

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  71. Still leaning toward the preferred -- but it's a pretty close call at this point.

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  72. Given the last week's range, 1,240 is now the line at which it becomes apparent that the game is up and the rally is over. 

    A decisive break lower from here quickly leads to questions of do we stop at 1,220?  1,200?  A break below 1,180 again?

    I think the only thing holding the market up here right now is that the Euro summit has not concluded and the FOMC meeting next week.  Maybe something more will  be offered to bulls out of either one of those. 

    Short of a bond buying spree or another round of printing and CB intervention, I expect the market to sell off pretty hard pretty soon. Certainly if the next thing that Ben says is that nothing is changed interest rate or QE-wise.  Which now seems rather likely.

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  73. PL - just wait for what we have in store for tonight!

    Hint: "Everybody Wang Chung Tonight!"

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  74. And here comes 1,240.  Logjam at 1,243 to 1,246 is now broken.  This is the big 'test' of the day. 

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  75. btw- re: why I love Maui... here's a "live" view from my backyard, taken about 10 minutes ago.  

    This is looking North, you can see how the sun hits the West Maui mountains as it rises -- the big shadow at the bottom is from the mountain I live on the slopes of (Haleakala).  The shadow vanishes after the sun comes up fully.  It's a 10,000 ft. mountain -- we live about 3,000 feet up the side.

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  76. Any thoughts on whether we've seen the LOD?  Looking for a day trade this afternoon.  Covered something like 1/3 of my shorts near current R2k LOD.

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  77. Brian ... Much appreciate your realtime play-by-play commentaries. Learning a lot from you.

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  78. Very cool!   Maui is a beautiful place!!!

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  79. i respect you, but now i kind of hate you :)

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  80. Oh no!  Do what he say, do what he say...!

    And don't ANYONE suggest "We Are the World" or "Don't Worry, Be Happy"!

    "Here's a little song I wrote,
    it might make you want to slit my throat...
    don' worry... be happy."

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  81. Lol - broke to new lows as I wrote it.  Probably too scared to play for a bounce on a day like today.  But the standard 3pm false rumor rally will probably bail the longs out again today.

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  82. Pretz-  You said you weren't thrilled about the decline so far earlier, why?  Looks like it was tracking your count perfectly.

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  83. lol, I would hate me too.  You can see why I don't want to move back...

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  84. Overlooking Kihei, I see ; -) 
    I think I remember where Kula is, I believe you are clear of the bikers coasting down the highway. 

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  85. Broke 1240, woo hoo. Go! Go!  
    (BTW Love McKenna, Kehei is a white trash hole. Dinner at Mams Fish House will fix all!) 

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  86. All the bets that were placed this week front running the ECB are now running for cover.  I'd expect a crushing today and a GIANT GAP DOWN in the AM - 3 WAVE down time - IMHO

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  87. Form looks better now.  It was at a point where it could go either way... now it looks like a 1-2 instead of an abc.

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  88. Bombs away with that break of the pause at 1,239.  This rally is over.  And we won't be seeing 1,250+ again for awhile.

     ssuming no new announcement from ECB / IMF / Fed/ Central Bank Cartel that would be a game changer. 

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  89. Mama's Fish House is da bomb.  ;)

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  90. sold my position around, been burned too much by this market to hold much longer... my guess is we'll get at least some pop to reshort

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  91. Starting to look like an impulsive move down -- may be entering a tiny internal 3rd wave now, if so, should start rolling after a little pause here.

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  92. Yep, good eye -- that's Kihei in the lower left.  Dunno about the bike path -- we live off the main road, so they don't come past our street.  And of course, since we live here and take it for granted, we've never done half the tourist stuff we probably should try at some point.

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  93. Would you have any idea of why William shatner isn't negotiating as hard?  Is he on vacation?

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  94. Hi PL, on Monday you were perfect anc today Wall Street is following the righ side

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  95. lol- I sold those puts a while back -- but looking at the chart, if Shatner can't continue negotiating prices about 472 (which I don't think he can), then look out below.  Bottom could fall out below 472.

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  96. I'm thinking the pause here at 1,239 is the last ditch effort that'll be made by longs.  If they can't take it back up from here, the rout of the bulls is on. 

    What a fucking change from the IMF lie from last night and misinterpreation of Draghi's comments about the ECB buying bonds this morning. 

    Had the market believed that the ECB would be buying those bonds.  Or that there is a new $800 billion IMF fund to pump money into the market we'd be pushing 1,270 right now.

    Seems pretty clear now that the ENTIRE foundation of this run was more printing and central bank intervetion.  Without that, bulls don't have much to work with.

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  97. Also, FYI, at the minimum if 472 goes, I would target 425.

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  98. I sold them too, but, like a fool, I got back in just before the announcement from the Fed.  Oh well.  Missed out on all the fun these past few days.  Looking to get out when I can.

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  99. They've already spoken - all steak and no sizzle.  They are taking the long term, responsible approach - not the Bernake quick fix/fail route.  Germany calls the shots there and they are fiscal conservatives

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  100. Market's bouncing off an old resistance line... bulls trying to turn it into support.

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  101. Old trendline on SPX:

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  102. Makes sense. 

    One other way to look at this:  Bulls have to mount a defense somewhere.  And bears are CLOSE to having accomplished what they needed to completely deflate bull confidence.  A close below 1,240 today would be very encouraging.

    By biggest concern (at this point) is that with the Euro summit not yet concluded and the Fed having not announced, there is still time for another stick save move.  But those don't usually come until we are at the edge of the precipice.  Which is not what this is.

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  103. lol- I love Disqus.  Now the Maui pic will come up everytime I post today.  Actually, now the Maui pic and the old trendline will come up today.  Gonna have the OTCAMPLF (Old Trendline Chart And Maui Pic Liberation Front) on my back soon...

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  104. Thanks.  I'll be sure to donate once that happens.

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  105. Ah, a picture says a thousand words.  Both of those do. Makes complete sense that bulls are defending here now. 

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  106. targeting 1245 to start rolling in a decent long short position...

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  107. btw-- please PLEASE do not get complacent here.  That bull count is still alive and well, and we could see a strong bounce to new highs at some point.

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  108. Ok the old trendline but the market today turned down and not upward. In my statistics I need today decrease

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  109. Pretzel, is that from your yard?

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  110. On a brighter note, my ES shorts from 1265.50 last night are looking golden right now.  :)

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  111. Agreed.  Covered some to lighten up into tomorrow.  Missed the current lows of the day but got pretty close.  Will have to reassess overnight.  I might put in some futures orders overnight (don't trade ES that much), that way I won't miss the gap one way or the other if the news storm starts before our open.

    Would be interested in hypothetical sell stop and buy stop levels tonight.  :)

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  112. Yes indeed, very nice.  I was thinking about that earlier and hoping you didn't get stopped out so that you caught the downdraft.  See, the day can't be THAT bad after all.

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  113. I'd like to see the bears defend 1247 now.

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  114. Conversely, today's low could see downside accelleration if broken.

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  115. yeah man! great windsurf spots rigt around the corner!

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  116. I'm rather curious and waiting to see what the last hour of trading holds. 

    Do bears let bulls it take back up a few points to lull everyone into thinking that the rally can be saved?  Or do they press forward in the closing hour to really start the bulls a panicking. 

    If I'm thinking about the absolute smartest IT move, I'd wait until Wednesday before lowering the boom on this rally.  Beacause that we've heard from Ben, all the meetings are wrapped up, and the news is out.  And the current 'lay of the land' is pretty well announced by the PTB.

    Until then there's a chance that a strong move downward is reversed by Ben or Draghi or the IMF making some dramatic announcement.

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  117. Hey, buttho PL, how could you confuse ME, for 'illiterate bum'.  I'd rather be dead, than be your father, hommo.
    Nice view, though, where did you steal the dough to buy it?   I underestimated you, you're a crook, just like ME.
    You're rich, had no idea.  Cannot understand how a rich man let's wife order him around, unless she's a cashcow.

    So hey, whatever, drop dead, write, blahblah, PENDEJO imbecile.  I got 6 days left for MY crash. 
    Shifted some gold shhtt around today, so I survive 1 more month, even if I'm wrong, short-term.
    "F*uc off", you say, to ME?  Finally starting to make you a MAN, I see, maui p.c. neutered turkey.

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  118. As to the close.....the meeting is being held now......try to run it up towards 1252 to shake out a few folks and then down....

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  119. ah, good old fleahei. how's tourism these days down there? stayed two years ago at the Marriott; pretty nice!

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  120. Good morning guys I just woke up and saw the world is falling apart again :-)

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  121. I mistook your brother for you, apparently.

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  122. Appears someone forgot to take its meds

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  123. Hey Pretz, Bengal here.  Been on the sidelines for the past two weeks, but tried to "Name My Own Price" on PCLN yesterday.  Cap'n Shatner feel asleep at the wheel the moment I shorted, but I'm going to be patient because The Negotiator has always come through for me.  Juan, you be patient too (with a reasonable stop-loss, of course).  Cheers, Bengal.

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  124. I went ahead and took some profits... small donation coming your way again this month

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  125. this is not constructive at all

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  126. This is one possible interpretation of the charts right now -- by no means the only interpretation, though...

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  127. Thinking of setting up a straddle now over the weekend... Monday might set up to be boom or bust based on FT headlines over the weekend

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  128. Good lord.  It's the chart w/ the numbers on it that I was referring to...

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  129. I further edited your edit, Unnamed Moderator.  :)

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  130. Nice! Im on the same page. Have this weird gut feel that we might be going lower fast. But cant really quantify it...

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  131. Anon20 has gotten a lot more amusing of late.  I'm beginning to really enjoy his posts.  :D

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  132. heres your chance bears @ 1238... make it happen or lose the chance

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  133. The chart of Maalaea Bay looks ready for me to build a position starting right now.  I can see a clearly defined wave structure.

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  134. lmao - good one!

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  135. If you haven't read Anon20's post, I highly recommend it.  I'm still cracking up. 

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  136. I just think these are interesting for at least s/r

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  137. Yep, good charts -- ty. 

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  138. im freeeee, freee falllinggggggg

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  139. 1236... new low for the day! 

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  140. It's more likely that Warbles was hiding in his pants....

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  141. A quick shout-out to Birgitt!  Thanks for your support of the PretzelCharts community.  :)

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  142. Alright, this is where bears need to push through.  A solid bounce would be strengthening this perceived support level.

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  143. Nope - the aforementioned groups already spoke.  They aren't going to reconsider because the market is selling off

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  144. I was making some Italian food and didn't get a chance to watch the markets closely (probably a good thing), but man crude oil is down. Sweet!

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  145. Covered my shorts @ 1236.25 -- ready to go short again if we break the most recent low.

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  146. nice...."serenity now"....

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  147. I'll take 29.25 points for the day and be happy, though, even if it doesn't break any lower.  :)

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  148. if its not to personal- Are you going to small positions with large moves, large positions with large moves? 

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  149. Okay, that was either an expanding ending diagonal fifth wave, in which case we're headed higher for the rest of the day, or another nest of 1-2's, in which case, we should be zooming lower after we break that low.  Hard to tell yet.

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  150. I don't understand this question, sorry.  :D

    I trade ES/NQ/YM primarily, if you're asking what the vehicles are.

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  151. btw, that was likely the "decision point" shown on my last chart.

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  152. Looking like the expanding ending diagonal fifth right now...

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  153. so higher for the rest of the day?

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  154. Well... gawd, there's one other option here.  That this is wave c of an abc running flat... gimme a minute, lemme see if I can nail this down.

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  155. And here we are with the bulls they need ta save Christmas Rally

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  156. Okay, much above 1245 and we can rule out the ABC.  If the ABC is correct, we should be reversing soon.  Just took a small ES position short @1243 with tight stops.

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  157. ESM BAIL-OUT FUND TO BE GIVEN BANKING LICENCE - DRAFT-reuters

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  158. You erased MY TRUE prior post, as always, Fahgot MORON, or your boss of a bitch wife did.
    Some mental retard copied MY ANON20 name, and wrote some crap, I don't even understand.
    But I get point, no problema, as it was almost certainly YOU that did it, IDIOT BITCH PRETZEL SHIT.

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  159. ah sorry for the stupid question...

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  160. Whoop-de-doo - there is one guy in Belgium who puts out bogus releases every day at 3:30

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  161. Okay, FWIW, if I were swing trading this, I would have my stops at 1247.10

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  162. agree. its damn frustrating. just breakdown to 1200 already. 

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  163. Isnt 1247 the KO for this one?

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  164. See above.  :)

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  165. It's not ME.  It is your lickazz wannabe-messiahnic mastah PL, playacting mocking ME, since he is such a cashcow pussee-whipped FAHG, he (she) CANNOT CONFRONT ME.

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  166. Time to apply the crusher bears !

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  167. Honestly, it's been so long since I've had to "lock in" to a position, I forget what it's like, and I don't always look at charts that way.  Since yesterday's discussion, I'm going to keep that in mind in the future -- but I'm a little rusty in that regard, so bear w/ me for a few days until I get get my thinking back into that mode a bit more. 

    I'm going to try to keep that type of trading in my thoughts in the future, though.

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  168. GERMANY REJECTS DRAFT MEASURES INCLUDING BANKING LICENCE FOR
    ESM, SIMULTANEOUS RUNNING OF EFSF AND ESM, COMMON EURO ZONE DEBT
    ISSUANCE -  SENIOR GERMAN OFFICIAL- caused instant 6 point drop in spx

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  169. the do just tanked 100 points in- 3 mins? after 100 point pop?  whipshaw city...

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  170. Now THAT was an impressive response by sellers.  Bears saying:  Nice try you silly bulls.  But you're all locked in the barn now.  And there's no getting out.

    Had buyers been able to push back up to 1,247 and held there, then the majority of the day's trading would have been underwater.

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  171. I have confronted you, but you continue to speak to everyone like a jackass. 

    If you can't play like a human, then you can't play at all.  My board, my rules.  That simple. 

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  172. if you can trade this market intra day or. if you have the balls to hold, overnight, play on. I cant believe our entire financial markets are being dominated by rumors that get rejected every 3 mins.  Zero stability~!

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  173. BREAKING HEADLINE:   Santa may bypass all of Europe this year on his rounds.......stay tuned, he's consulting the elves

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  174. lol -- mav I wasn't saying that to YOU, I was saying that to the charts.  :D

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  175. Okay -- if that was an a-b-c expanded flat, it's all downhill from here

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  176. Bears capitalizing here big time.  New LOD and 1,235 here we come.  The opposite of yesterday's IMF rumor . ie.

    Watching my Jan SPY puts explode in price is pretty cool.

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  177. But did you notice how the potential was there in the charts already?  Fascinating, I think.

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  178. It was more like an "oh gawd, it could be THIS instead."  Which it looks like it was.  :)

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  179. Free falling! Rock N Rolling!

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  180. This rally's done. 

    Only a very dramatic change in policy from the Fed saves this one for longs now.  Europe just bowed out of the bull hopeful / fake out / sucker's rally, which is what this always was.

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  181. Now that's what I'm talkin Bout - like to get some of those gaps back down starting tomorrow after Asia and Europe tank

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  182. you are totally right, i need to adjust my trading style.  if i just held my positions i'd be golden, rather than getting in and out.

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  183. of course, today is the first day a help short position actually worked.  just frustrated, but flat for the day at least. :)

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  184. Aaarggghhh, sold out half my shorts, still holding half.  Did fine, but damn I need a sucker bounce to let me back in....

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  185. Redrum, re:  "you are totally right, i need to adjust my trading style. if i just held my positions i'd be golden, rather than getting in and out."

    It all depends on how and where you get in and out.  I picked up an extra 5.75 ES points today by covering at support, then shorting again at higher levels.  That's also how you protect profits -- had the market moved against me there, I'd have "saved" an extra 5.75 in profit.  

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  186. A quick shout-out to Katharyn for the donation!  Thanks -- your support is very much appreciated.  :)

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  187. well there ya go pretzel...plenty of price action to keep you charting all night again :)

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  188. Your welcome PL, just wish that I had found you long ago. :)

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  189. And many thanks to Michael R. for the donation!  Apparently I should post more trades in real-time.  :)

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  190. thx man, your posts are really helpful...

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  191. And just so you know that I *did* have those charts done and saved to my computer last night, here's what they would look like if I hadn't... stockcharts updates everything in real-time, including annotated charts. 

    Let's see if the image comes up...
     
    Sorry again about not having it posted pre-open.  :(

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