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Friday, January 6, 2012

SPX and BKX Update: The "Wear-Ya-Out" Market

The last time I felt the charts were this challenging was on September 29, 2011.  That was the market getting geared up to reverse and turn into the October rally.  I ended up nailing the turn to the day, but a few days before it happened, the charts got really messy.  The market often gets most confusing near major turns as it tries to grind everyone up, and right now it feels like the market just doesn't want anyone to know exactly what's coming next.  Many of the other technical analysts I periodically check in on seem to be expressing similar angst -- at least the ones who don't just shoot for the easy answers.

Yesterday was another one of those "do nothing" days that doesn't aid much in analysis.  The possibilities put forth on Wednesday and reiterated yesterday still stand.  The top may be in, or another lunge higher may be in the cards.  Let's start with the preferred count, and then I'd like to share a couple alternates.  The first chart is the preferred ending diagonal count, and suggests that one more lunge higher may be needed to complete the rally -- though it's not required.



Now let's discuss some alternate possibilities.  I uncovered a potential in the Philadelphia Bank Index (BKX) which will probably not thrill bears -- there is still the potential of a bit more melt-up from these levels.  Here's the BKX chart, so you can see what I'm referring to; I'll discuss this further beneath the chart. The blue count agrees with the ending diagonal preferred count; the black count does not.


The chart annotations explain some of the positives each count has going for it, however there is one additional mention that the black count has in its favor: the target of roughly 45 equates to both the Fibonnacci 1.618 extension of wave a, and the target given by the equation where wave 5 becomes equal in length to wave 1.  When two forms of targeting both agree on the same number, it calls for caution. 

That said, the issue I have with the black count is discussed on the chart: momentum should have increased during the third wave, not decreased.  So I am somewhat torn, and unable to give an edge to one count or the other at this moment.  Hopefully Friday and/or Monday's action will help.

The next chart shows how the S&P 500 (SPX) could track the BKX if the "more melt-up" scenario unfolds.  The other thought regarding this scenario is that a move like this could break the last of the bears into capitulating.  Surprisingly, despite the AAII sentiment numbers of 17% bears, there are still a reasonable number of us who haven't yet been shot or had to gnaw off our paws to escape traps.  A final push that sustains trade over 1300 for a few days would probably get most of the remaining bears to cover their shorts. I like to say those are the levels where the big players sell their shorts -- which are then bought by all the retail bears who are covering theirs.

Anyway, this SPX chart shows how to count this potential in line with the information revealed on the BKX chart.  The blue 5th wave would target the 1310-1330 zone under this count.  Again, hopefully the next couple sessions will reveal if these alternate counts have any legs.


The ongoing observation I have is that the SPX has not performed at all in line with expectations for a "normal" c-wave rally.  The third wave in particular was weak thus far, and had a very deep fourth wave retracement.  This suggests several possibilities, such as those discussed, but we're still left with unanswered questions. 

There are now many divergences beginning to crop up on the indices and on individual stocks, and this too suggests that the rally is not much longer for this world.  The patterns being formed are suggestive of a distribution top.  I remain of the belief that this is the last rally before an extended decline -- but the market isn't making it easy on technical analysts to pinpoint the top.  I'm sticking to my call for a reversal in the 1269-1310 zone.  In a perfect world, today's market would run higher to complete the ending diagonal in the 1292-1310 zone, then reverse and call it a day.  Keep in mind that non-farm payroll days often line up with major reversals.  Trade safe.

The original article, and many more, can be found at http://PretzelCharts.blogspot.com

347 comments:

  1. Morning all.  I think the title comes from the fact that I am friggin BEAT.  Spent about 10 hours charting (after 4 hours of sleep), trying to look for any potentials I might have missed or overlooked.

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  2. Morning PL.  In your conclusion paragraph, you may want to change "tomorrow's market" to "today's market".

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  3. looks like the NFP number was positive; futures were up but then they have drifted back down as get nearer to the open....which of your counts does this situation favor?

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  4. PL, Can you look or comment at the SPX at 1288 as a max target due to the 3rd wave not being the shortest...

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  5. lol.  Started writing it yesterday, so it was tomorrow when I wrote it.

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  6. It's possible.  It would actually be 1288.5.  Seems immaterial, though. 

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  7. Doesn't change anything.  Still favoring the ending diagonal.  3-6 point moves in futures have zero impact on the cash counts.

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  8. Morning.

    Thanks for all your work.  Before a certain someone arrives, please consider the following as it may put his rants into proper context.

    http://www.xtranormal.com/watch/12887918/spoken-word?page=1

    I swear this is the last one.

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  9. morning, good stuff! wouldn't above 1300 be the ideal wallstreet/media trap??? can you imagine the news headlines, falls expectation etc, and then booooooom south we head. My ideal scenario (and I know we don't live in an ideal world). Up above 1300 today or monday, or at least above 1292, monday or tuesday kinda doji day and then red (based on bad Q4 earnings). Brilliant! huh!?

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  10. Hi PL! Any chance that the top was reached during premarket and thaerefore the reversal may begin during today's session?

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  11. If the top is in already, sure.  Still the same counts from yesterday, with the addition of the work I did in BKX and trying to look at SPX with fresh eyes.

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  12. Not to mention the work I did in FTSE, DAX, TRAN, AAPL, NDX and a bunch of others you guys don't see when I write the article.  :)

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  13. Hi PL,

    Any chance the top may have been reached during premarket and therefore the retreat may begin during today's session?

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  14. After your 10 hours of work, helping to proof read is the least I could do.  Literally.  :)

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  15. Something tells me this market wants to go down, good job data notwithstanding.
    Seconds?

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  16. Excellent, excellent post PL. When mrkt action (and EW counts) get weird, it usually portends something about to happen. And absolutely no one can call a top until well after it happens.

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  17. It may be a whipsaw day. :)

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  18. PL  Great analysis as usual.  You are becoming a very popular blogger.  Over 300+ comments yesterday during a single day and this is not the weekend.  This is all a sign that your analysis is top rate and well respected by more and more traders.

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  19. Yeah, appreciate it actually.  I catch typos and stuff sometimes an hour or three after the article's up.  By this time of night, my brain is mush. 

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  20. Juan...The "Village A20" is the best....keep'em coming.

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  21. At 10 am the 120 candle will close. PURE SPECULATION NOW but it could be a doji or an inverted hammer. IF SO, this will be a huge doji or what ever and put in at least a ST top right at my morning tgt EW5 for ES 1282.5. The 60 min. candle has already closed; it is an inverted hammer. No one knows it a LT top is in...... until well after when we can look up to it from a valley floor.

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  22. I wanted to ask a question to everyone about decay in leveraged ETFs.  I took a flier on UPRO yesterday at around 63.50.  It closed at 63.80.  After the close you could buy it after hours from anywhere between 63.10-63.20 which I did and then sold the whole position before the employment report at $63.88.  I guess my question is - is decay the reason it could be purchased after hours for .70 cheaper than the close ?  If that happens all the time - why not just buy after hours and sell at pre-market every day ?  On 1000 shares that was a $600 trade and the risk was the over-night session.  Thx

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  23. I'm sure I'll get PLENTY of NEW MATERIAL SOON directed at MYSELF.  But not to worry, I found a little starlet who's going places with ME!

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  24. My other comment is - 2 days worth of joyous employment numbers heralding the new bull market and recovery, and the market just cannot get away from 1280.  I would say that action is decidely NOT-BULLISH

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  25. ty, Shing, kat, Arnie, Juan.  :)

    I'm just sitting here brain dead now. :D

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  26. since we are opening lower, i wonder if the reversal take us to that 1290 range??

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  27. ES 1269 tgt, break or bounce...

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  28. as said many times by anyone with a clue. stay away from leveraged etfs. lookit up on googl and see what is aid. its a suckers bet. good god wait til they come out with 10 times etfs then we can all make lots more monies lol. if you buy one just keep a few days. most will be underwater and say well i will keep it a lil longer. oops then hold for a year. then it decays to nothing, compare fas and faz they are both way down in 3 years of life. soory about the rant but cant stand to see peeople raped of their money. gl

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  29. yep, i thought this would be a nice run out of the gates... i don't get this market anymore

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  30. I agree.  I think leveraged ETF's are a scam.

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  31. Wave counters ....

    Where are we now?

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  32. I was thinking more of the decay factor buying it cheaper after the close and flipping it before the open or the next day.  It opens where it closed the previous day - but you can pick it up cheaper after the close then re-sell it the next day which is what I did.  I found that rather interesting

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  33. I'd say the effects of decay due to rebalancing are imperceptible for one single day.  It was almost entirely due to the futures being negative a 2-3 points from 4-8pm EST.

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  34. Inverted hammer on the 120.

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  35. Just a FYI ....

    Hungarian sovereign was downgraded by Fitch by one notch.

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  36. Analysts are piling on Goldman .... :)

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  37. No, not bullish at all, even with all the wonderful planetary effects furrr mentioned ;-) Chic7 was right (as implied, not said), 1325 etc ain't gonna happen. I'm merely waiting for one last squeeze up before massively shorting near the close. Dangerous perhaps but.

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  38. They are not a scam if you short them simultaneously and hold for a while.  I used to run a fund and we shorted SDS and SSO from 2007 to 2010.  We made 50% enjoying the decay instead of running from it.

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  39. AAPL break EW tgt of 419 by a couple of points and 440 is next tgt.

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  40. Following PL's preferred count, it is either an extended IV   OR   ii of  V  by what I see...

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  41. Probably about the equivalent of a downgrading Nebraska debt. 

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  42. Yes, shorting them is definitely a good play... using them against themselves.  :)

    Problem I often run into is trying to find shares available to short...

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  43. Does appear to be the wave3 up within the final v-up to (2), by PL's preferred count on first chart of blog.

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  44. Exactly.  Buy or sell and hope is the best way to lose money even in non leveraged instruments.  If you aren't taking advantage of Theta decay, then look it up and learn how to make it work for you.

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  45. shorting both may work, but in some instances it will break you. i believe a one way market would give you considerate losses. finding shares is the problem.

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  46.  Do your homework. Retrace or not? Bounce off of 1268 or not?

    http://www.screencast.com/users/katzo7/folders/Jing/media/ec75dbda-ca72-47fc-a8c4-84cc9b60b9c0

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  47. I should say delta neutral strategy that takes advantage of theta decay to be more specific

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  48.  We just tapped the .382 retrace....

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  49. Agreed.

    Just like yesterday? :)

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  50. http://www.google.com/finance?q=tna+tza+fas+faz

    click on 5 yr chart and see

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  51.  My thinking is ST down move is over, we will work higher slowly now. This is not going to be that easy. Avoid getting bearish at bottom of triangle and bullish at top of triangle... when in the triangle.

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  52. repeat of yesterday?  I want to get a fast scramble up, without that capitulation type move up im worried the short side is limited to quick trades

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  53. Funny how on daily, AAPL has seen steadily dropping volume since the last island top in mid October. Now it is again up there, but the volume is very weak.

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  54. I shorted on the way down, covered, and is now long - for the day. :)

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  55. Good article on why the market is not impressed by the job numbers:  http://www.zerohedge.com/news/massive-beat-not-so-fast-morgan-stanley-warns-42000-jobs-due-seasonal-quirk

    From the link: "Enamored with the 200,000 number? Don't be - the reason why the market has basically yawned at this BLS data is that as Morgan Stanley's David Greenlaw reports, 42,000 of the 200,000 is basically a seasonal quirk, which will be given back next month, meaning the true adjusted number is 158,000, essentially right on top of the expectation. From David Greenlaw: "some of the strength in this report should be discounted because of an seasonal quirk in the courier category of payrolls (Fed-ex, UPS, etc).  Jobs in this sector jumped 42,000 in December, repeating a pattern seen in 2009 and 2010 (see attached figure).  We should see a payback in next month's report.""

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  56. It has been like that for the past 3 days - today included, I think. :)

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  57. Possibilities, this is for day traders and in general to understand EW market structure, this TA can apply to ALL time frames. DO NOT get confused, this is a very different count that PLs, for day trading ONLY. Copy those stats a posted down below. I have to go out for about two hours. Good luck....

    http://www.screencast.com/users/katzo7/folders/Jing/media/a737ebf3-4daf-4216-82c3-a43b3612e2a3

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  58. There is a lot of nervousness on APPL. They are on the cross hair of all the big boys. It is tough to short it though - because it may announce a dividend out of the blue. :)

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  59. http://www.google.com/finance?q=sds+sso

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  60. Never used the word bullish ;) 
    "Summation - Not a lot of bearish energy in the picture short term."

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  61. VXX has been marching relentlessly southwards. Shorts of SPX beware. :)

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  62. At this rate, it would take a long time before the current "minuette" wave 3 to reach 1289, which it must do according to theory. Might be a good time to place swing short at that point, because I can't see much upside for wave 5, due to resistance at 1292. So if today *is* to be like yesterday, EOD would be the right time to do it. There's also an EW observation that it's likely that two of the three waves are the same size, so if 1=3, then 5 must be short, therefore little point in not shorting at the end of wave 3, at 1289. Man, this rally looks tired. We haven't even recaptured tuesday's high!

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  63. Hey, ASSHOLE, go fuck your mother, or if she's a carcass already, then your sister.  Or, if you are neutered or impotent, as you probably are, then get fucked by your father or brother.

    IF you had a brain, scumbag, which you don't, you'd realize I could change MY ANON20 moniker herein any time I wanted, and post differently.  But your opinion on anything is less than shit to ME, worthless trash.  So I will change nothing, about what I say, or how I say it.  This is the last time I will address you, garbage.

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  64. Lines up perfectly with the sentiment report! The universe is in harmony!

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  65. RE: Dust Devil from yesterday. "There's a full moon on Monday, so whatever takes place towards the close on Friday should get amplified/accelerated on Monday? Furrr??"Lunar cycles in isolation are not valid in correlation to market moves.  In general astrology, full moons culminate energy initiated at new moons. 
    That said, some of you may be interested in knowing that solar/lunar cycle combinations have very high correlations to ST moves/trends/reversals in the silver market.
    In financial astrology, we evaluate weighted factors for other planetary energy combinations that have historical correlations to market reversals.

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  66. Today is opt-ex day. Anything can, and will, happen. :)

    I've seen big boys cleaning everyone's clock without mercy many times. So be nimble.

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  67. sarcasm? i think this would be a great time to buy.

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  68. Well, a little rally started about two weeks ago (new moon), so in "general" we are reaching the culmination of this rally on Monday?

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  69. Euroland is now closed.

    The real action begins. Let's see what the market really wants.

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  70. Whatever you want to buy/sell, just make sure that your are not married to it/them. :)

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  71. It's like ground hog day - didn't we see this exact day yesterday ?

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  72. yup i say up down or sideways too lolz

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  73. anyone else see the spx wedge breakout? false move?

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  74. lol. Prove your conviction with $s, right? ;-)

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  75. Just curious ....

    Does this shit (pardon my French) really work? :)

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  76. In my humble experience, it can and did. I made good money coming out of 2010 August doldrum, caught the September rally, based on this stuff. That said, that was clear. Right now, it's all a mess and has been this way for a long time. Hence, I now turn to EW, another form of voodoo, maybe ;-)

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  77. Last new moon 12/24.  This little rally is pushing off the passing of the slightly negative Sun conjunct Pluto of early am 12/29 which was only a short term pause off of the positive energy 12/19-20 and the separation of the hard energy of Venus square Saturn 12/18.

    if you're watching longer term than intraday, pay attention to 1/13 when all this may run out of fuel and 1/19 which is a hard hit of Sun square Saturn.
     
    Short term, the Mercury square Uranus on 1/8 (Sunday night EST, so maybe a Europe moment) may give a little hiccup for Monday. 

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  78. I'm looking for the uber swing trade, not intraday. Jan 13 is a long way away from PL's possible one last hurrah, maybe today. Hard to reconcile the two dates an entire week apart.

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  79. PL, NDX has become the new Gold and like the Gold it will end

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  80. Pretzel - what do you think? PCLN about to start a C down?...or 3 down?
    Looks like a nice ABC off the early december low and it's running into the 50day moving average...i suppose it could go to 500 where the 200dma is at.

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  81. I'm trying hard to see wave 3.2(abc) completing here. Really trying.

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  82. Break 1276 ES and we go up break 71 and down.

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  83. There is a major upward explosion apparently coming very soon in the usa dollar index, as it is VERY near it's major breakout area of 81.5 approx. (it is now approx. at 80.9).  In a matter of just a few days, it will explode up nearly 10%.

    Why will this occur?  Trillions of electronic usa dollars, in usa dollar 'carry trade,' HAVE to be returned to their righful owners.  And this 81.5 dollar index area, has already been established, for last 2 years, as the 'breakout' point, of the usa dollar trading range; and the zero-interest usa dollar borrowing ( to exchange  and hold for other interest-bearing world currencies), no longer becomes profitable---and actually becomes RISKY.

    Last time usa dollar broke out from this 81 index area, was May 2010, and the dollar shot up immediately from 81 to 88, in only days. 
    Concurrently, the spx fell 75 points, in only 3 days---and continued falling raggedly for 2 months, from May at 1200, to July at 1000.
    (And this spx sudden fall is because the BIG players must get their trillions in sudden dollar covering losses from somewhere, and it won't come from usa t-bills or bonds, it will come from OVERPRICED equities profits, and OVERPRICED gold and silver profits).

    here's the dollar chart, poised like a coiled snake ready to breakout:
    http://www.fxstreet.com/rates-charts/usdollar-index/?version=1
    (btw, you will also note usa dollar is flying way above its 200dma, first time since early 2010)

    EVERYTHING is aligning in place, for THE major 10% one-day CRASH, I have been waiting for, for nearly 2 months now.
    GSC 5.  HUNTING the big one.

    Now let's see this in the maui turkey's article tomorrow (yes, he does have a big move in his dollar chart due soon, but I am explaining the reason WHY it will occur).

    And also btw, I was the one that MADE the bear call on silver's big fall from 35 to 26, WEEKS before the maui punk even did his silver charts, and he only confirmed what I had already written, that silver would hit 25-27 soon.

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  84. I'm sure I speak for the entire blog when I say:  Thank you for the priceless and free entertainment.  However, if you want to get anywhere in this business, I'm going to need you to say it like you mean it.  Pout, baby, pout!  Gimme some cowbell!

    http://www.xtranormal.com/watch/12889415/a202

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  85. I sold my long about an hour ago (as precaution to protect my gain). And is now watching where the sucker is heading for the next move. Or just stay out for the weekend.

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  86. You have to look at the WEEKLY chart, to see what I am talking about, the default link sends you to the daily chart, in which you can see nothing of what I say.  (the change of charts is done by clicking on the left top corner).  It let's you see 3 years of usa dollar action, and you will see how crucial this 81 area is (all the way back to early 2009, were it did the opposite, and totally broke down from this area).  Whenever this 81 is crossed, there are MAJOR sudden moves, either up or down, since 2009.

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  87. Yesterday you said we would get the spike over 1985.  Do you still stand by that after today's action and your dollar prognostication?

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  88. Here is new AAPL research. Said if 312-4 was broken the next tgt was 320, that AAPL would go into a power EW3 up move.  If that 320 level is broken next level is 340. Here is a chart applying EW research.

    http://www.screencast.com/users/katzo7/folders/Jing/media/d9459410-7914-46e9-bd28-a331ecfb2fa1

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  89. I would not be surprised if SPX goes back to 1270. This is typical of OP-EX day, especially when the vol is low. It will be pushed around to follow the path of least resistance - just to clean everyone's clock.

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  90. My sense is that 1271 will break.....

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  91. katz,
    Does one still subtract 4 to get S&P cash targets for this post?

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  92. Completely agreed A20, USD is going parabolic in the coming days/weeks and will send the sheep to the slaughterhouse (those who are long that is) as minor wave 3 begins in epic fashion.

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  93. Looks like a 1 down on the 5th wavelet. No?

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  94. any chance this is just a deep wave 2 retracement? or maybe a wave 5 and the last drop was simply a wave 4?

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  95. Been discussing the dollar for weeks and it always appears on my charts (UUP). There is presently a disconnect between the dollar and $SPX. Been posting charts of eur/$$ for weeks.

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  96. Whip sawed,
    ES H2 is at 1272.5. now and $SPX is at 1278.47. Add 8 points at this present time, this is always changing.

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  97. At this rate, EUR could be near 1.2 by the end of next week. No doubt this would have a severely negative effect on risk markets in general. This decoupling idea being spread around in the mainstream is exactly what has lured the sheep out to be uberbullish here as evidenced in the AAII sentiment data. Has everyone forgotten that the whole Eurozone could be downgraded? Decoupling is nonsense/gibberish. USD will rally hard in the coming days.

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  98. Anon20,

    Read your post on the dollar. I was just listening to another strategist who opined that dollar, stocks and Precious Metals may now start going up together.   Do you see that even remotely happening??

    Daniel B

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  99. Just a FYI ....

    Alcoa will kick off the earning season on Monday. Good/Bad/Ugly earnings and good/bad/ugly outlooks will all be coming out in the coming weeks. Watch out! :)

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  100. Just took on an aggressive position on short side, not the massive one I planned on. Since are so not playing out according to script. My timing probably sucked as far as it was at the bottom of the ST wedge, but then I was mindful of opex as you warned. The bottom could just drop out instantly. As a swing trader, a few micro-points isn't going t make too much difference to me.

    This idea of us shorting at 1290 - hah! Fantasy meets reality. Now just hoping for that humungous France downgrade tonight. I notice not many bears on this board are shorting. That should be an contrarian indicator to short, no?

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  101. RockyTop,
    If AAPL breaks 427 area, this cannot be a retracement. Anything is possible and we have to apply our standard systems to what we see. Do a computation on the EW1 & Ew3 ratio, the EW3 is at 1.618 now. That is good enough for me.

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  102. Is anyone else's paint dry yet?

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  103. Anon20

    See my message top of page.

    Daniel B

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  104. At times like these, you might just have to go back to the big picture. As per PL, the top may already been in. Don't you get a sense that 1282 is resistance?

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  105. Levels are 1271 & 1276 ES, anything else is pure BS. lol

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  106. I may be taking on a modest  near term (1 wk) put spread to bet on the beginning of earning season. My take is that even if the earning and outlooks are good, which is a bit of a stretch, Europe will still be a pall over the whole market. Good luck. :)

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  107. Reverse H&S formation (from 1:45PM til now on SPY cash)... If we break upward from here, it projects to approx. 129 on the SPY.

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  108. Correction... meant to say from 1:45PM yesterday! til now.

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  109. Thanks. I'm sipping port - I feel like the general who've just sent a million men to their certain death.

    Wow. did you just see that spike up *and down* on 1min chart? Volatile, for sure :-0

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  110. I still opine that the last of last of last leg up will NOT be truncated, as it is right now.  So at least a print high over the oct.27 top, is still required, to not be truncated, and fully finish the form, even if only intraday, like it did in oct.4, yet inversely.  Yes, I still expect it.  But today's action does look top heavy, like it's spinning wheels and sliding back, in the low 1280's.  Despite this, I still expect it.

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  111. Reverse H&S formation on the SPY (cash) from 1:45PM yesterday until now.  If we break upward, the projection is to approx. 129 on the SPY.

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  112. FYI:  "
    Stock Market Gains May Not last" (DUH we already knew that, but this article got some interesting (business) cycle analysis 
    http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article32491.html

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  113. No.  Not 1 chance.

    But I would like to know what kind of hallucigenics he is taking to come to this LSD conclusion, I want some.

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  114. volume is crazy thin... where is everyone?

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  115. Curled up in fetal position?

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  116.  Here is a ST chart with my levels and counts.

    http://www.screencast.com/users/katzo7/folders/Jing/media/38aa4485-04d5-49ea-9aca-c1fc6ee18b3b

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  117. Very strong resistance at 1281. Impressive.

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  118. Per PL and Anon, yes I said them in the same sentence, LOL, hoping for a burst of upward energy at some point so I can sell at close.

    PL seems to have dropped off the sleep?

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  119. Lol!  Sounds about right, though...

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  120. Can't blame him, you know. Have a heart. :)

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  121. Seriously, if you're a bull, this is scarey.

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  122. What is the best way, other than futures to play the US$?
    UUP doesn't move much.
    Thanks

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  123. Haha, no, it's not blame, just wondering.  I certainly appreciate him keeping the site free!

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  124. Well, if you're a bear, this is scarey also.  The old saying "Never short a dull market." applies here.

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  125.  Whooa, look at AAPL go....

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  126. yes.  stops i place in case short buster make a late day surge, what a perfect way to kill bears over the weekend

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  127. I'm not using stops. This is opex, as I get reminded.

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  128. The perfect way would be with a gap up on Monday.  That's not what I want, by the way.  Just saying.

    China loosening policy is a big risk that could cause a gap up on Monday.

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  129. That's extremely bullish for the market, and their earnings are still more than 2 weeks away.

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  130. OR ... this could just be a techical response to a failed complex H&S.

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  131. I am getting out of my AAPL long right here.

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  132. Thanks for posting the chart.  Since it's weekly I would expect it would take several tries to penetrate this resistance zone, a la Feb to April '10 before it finally broke through in May.    It may not take as long this time, but why should it break through in only days this time?

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  133. impressive- you are strong with the dark side....

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  134. Since Bears are not letting it go above 1281, Elliott waves be damned, this means they have a wicked strategy for Monday?

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  135. lmao ... Join me, and we can rule the GALAXY together!

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  136. katzo7,

    where did you learn ew theory and how long have you been doing it?

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  137. Me thinks drop coming.....

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  138. LOL. I do not know. However, hope you are correct about dollar. Thanks.

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  139. Weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee! all the way down :)

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  140. me berneke, me say no. print more monizez

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  141. Closing bell with your favorite news team.
    http://www.xtranormal.com/watch/12889844/news-flash

    Earlier reaction from San Franciscio Castro district  local
    http://www.xtranormal.com/watch/12889415/a202

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  142. Yes.  I've been watching 1282 all day.  This week's action has formed a nice ending triangle that is at the make-or-break point right now.  If we don't have a direction by close, I think we definitely will on Monday.  I keep thinking about that France downgrade that is waiting in the wings.

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  143. Just a freethought here, and a serious question....looking at 5 year SPX weekly....week of 05/19/08 kinda rhymes with what I am seeing currently if you squint real hard.  My father-in-law disagrees. Can anyone point out who needs to get their eye's checked sooner. Thanks all for your great posts.

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  144. You are a funny guy Juan; thanks for the laugh on this boring trading day

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  145. me think you kina right

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  146. The idea that the DG has already been priced in is a pretty fuzzy concept. How do you price in the *reaction* to the DG?

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  147. as father and... son?

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  148. search your feelings, luke.  you know this to be true!

    lol from memory

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  149. Don't forget the China policy loosening that is also waiting in the wings.

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  150. I bet he was under 35, 'a child of the bubble', as I like to call them, today's market morons. 
    No one over 50 would say that extreme stupidity, I mean---gold/dollar synchronicity?
    Like I said already, I want to know the hard drugs he takes in private, I want some.

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  151. Much appreciated.  I have to contribute somehow.  You guys are way out of my league when it comes to trading and EW.  Personally with our news anchor alter egos, i like to give credit where credit is due...which is why there's two of them...one serious, professional, and very capable, and the other...well...

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  152. Ask the maui punk.  I do not play the dollar index, I watch it.

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  153. cobra and daneric are claiming bullish ascending triangle is forming....fridays love triangles.
    looks like C up for 5 to end the ED is coming monday....I'm still short, but I'm taking a little bit off to have some ammo when this thing pops on monday.

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  154. Please select a different user name so there is no confusion as to who is writing here.  I have been posting as "Guest" for a few weeks now.  I posted earlier about the reverse H&S formation from 1:40Pm yesterday, etc...  This post regarding the US$ is someone else. 

    Again, please select a different user name to avoid confusion here.  Thanks.

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  155. Reply button does not work. Interesting point jbg1911. I rode that move down with Atilla. Daily P/L's were 79k, 99k. I tripled my acct. in a month with options. My father-in-law called me every day at 4 p.m. to see what I did. He turned his account over to me. Yes, there are similarities.

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  156. I REALLY like jewish girls.  A LOT.  All that GUILT, I adore them.  Easy to manipulate.

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  157. Yes.  You are correct.  It make even MORE churning in this area, for several more DAYS, to break through the 82 index level, and EXPLODE upward, to at least 88. 

    However, it will NOT take weeks (just relook at the crazed bull AAII info. provided by the maui punk, UTTERLY insane, never before have I seen a 32 point divergence in bull/bear ratio, for usually all it takes is 20 point difference, say 45bull/25bear, to create a dramatic waterfall).

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  158. I am not saying that it is priced in, but I do not know the extent of the possible reaction. 

    I mention China because everyone seems to be excited about the downgrade of France, but no one seems to worry about some bullish central government action coming from China.

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  159. "Me thinks drop coming....." 
    Saweeeet !

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  160. Crap, it traded mostly in the fib .236 - .500 extension range. I could've shorted 4 points higher. lol

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  161. Glad to hear that, Katz. I'll take your word for it. :-)

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  162. Nice contrarian story about Japan. http://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/08/opinion/sunday/the-true-story-of-japans-economic-success.html?_r=2&pagewanted=1&hp

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  163. I didn't select it the site did, must be a default if you don't create a name.
    I didn't just show up today, been here for a couple of months.

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  164. Lots of printing coming up this next year...
    Country 2012 Bond, Bill Redemptions ($) Coupon Payments
    Japan 3,000 billion 117 billion
    U.S. 2,783 billion 212 billion
    Italy 428 billion 72 billion
    France 367 billion 54 billion
    Germany 285 billion 45 billion
    Canada 221 billion 14 billion
    Brazil 169 billion 31 billion
    U.K. 165 billion 67 billion
    China 121 billion 41 billion
    India 57 billion 39 billion
    Russia 13 billion 9 billionI can't see how this is going to end well.

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  165. Formatting doesn't seem to hold up well.  Sorry about that.

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  166. I like it.   Father in law needs glasses.

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  167. Out of my short ES at 3;54, that was a PITA (pain in the ass) waiting for that drop. Notice that it dropped right to 1271 ES (1271.75), my lower level. They always pop ES in last 5 minutes of RTH. Best to be out before that. ES closes at 4:15 pm.

    Perfect day for me,  hope I could help some who enjoy learning. Wouldn't it be a kick if everyone on this site made tons of cash? Might be best if newbies just sat on cash for awhile and watched charts. Said ES to 1282.5, it hit that level on the freakin' nose. Then said EW1 ES down move to 1268, it bounced off there and got caught up in a protracted ridiculous EW2 retrace. Went out for Chinese food for lunch as I knew there would be nothing going on during the PPT boy's table tennis match (up, down, up, down). lol. Provided levels of 1271 & 1277-8 to determine a good sense of IT ES direction, awaited the table tennis match to end.

    Posted chart on first predictive ES count and alternate. Got out of AAPL at its EW3 top (422 based on DAY chart), awaiting an EW4 retrace of AAPL to around 411-15. Of course it will be a nasty ABC move, never seen so many ABCs in the EW4 moves. AAPL EW5 might be 440 if EW4 works out. Said at 3:10 a drop was coming, voila. EOD drop set up nicely. Be doin' some research over the weekend, will post if interested.

    For who asked, been doin' EWaves since 2007 just before the crash.  Was a buy and hold guy before that for 25 years. Took a class while in Miami Beach, got to know teacher pretty well (no, not Madoff, he applied EWT that only went up til it crashed on him). Teacher said then in class (late 2007), "what would you say if I told you that EWaves predicted market was going to 600 SPX." One quarter of the 40 ppl in the room got up and left. One has to keep an open mind in this; there are bold traders and there are old traders but there are no old bold traders.

    Have a great weekend.

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  168. Baby bear children, beware of Monday, and next week. 
    This is GSC5' END, 300 YEARS, of amerikan hisssstory,
    and it's spx current supposed TOP, is still TRUNCATED.

    I DOUBT VERY much, THIS will END this way, truncated. 
     ANOTHER high, next week.  1 more, little cubby boobies.
    Just have the patience of chicago cubs fans---100 yr. wait.

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  169. Thanks all....Still trying to convince my F-I-L that Buffett is not a god, and that "times, they are a changin". Old habits are hard to break.

    p.s. I still haven't figured out how to reply directly...must be my browser or something. I'm doomed...LOL

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  170. Was this an esignal trainer?

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  171. Looking at market indice data going back to Jan/1996, there is rarely a 'major' market top without one or more of the small (Russell 2000/S&P600), mid (S&P400), large (S&P500), and COMPQ first closing above the upper Bollinger band.  There has already been a close below the lower Bollinger band for the VIX/TNX which is not a neccessary but fairly reasonable indicator of a potential local high in the market.  However, there is something close to an 80-90% success rate for not calling for a local high or major high in the market until the above indices close above the upper Bollinger band.  My system is for multiple month if no longer trades so that 401K trade rules are not encountered so for those long/short for hours/days this bit of TA observation is not neccessarily useful.

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  172. um- so are you bullish or bearish?  I have no idea what you wrote.

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  173. There's a reply button there, but invisible unless you use IE9. If you select the whole page with control A, you will see the button. Even if not selected, hovering mouse there will work.

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  174. BB on daily charts?

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  175. I wrote repeatedly 1-2 MONTHS ago, that 2011/2012 chart, was in many ways nearly IDENTICAL, to 2007/2008 charts.  Except NOW, with extra spicy red HOT pepper sauce, just the way I LIKE IT.

    2012 will make 2008 look like a happy park pinic, for ALL you boobie amerikanos, bulls and bears alike.

    BUY TONS OF BULLETS, hurry up, clean out the gunstore shelves, while they are still not totally govt regulated.
    THIS is the very best BARTER item, neighborhood and friend and community wise, of your soon to be future.

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  176. AAPL

    http://www.screencast.com/users/katzo7/folders/Jing/media/c3368a8a-f7b9-4e08-a1df-bc8ef077b9f7

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  177. Eh - maybe next summer, trying to help mortgage rates down.  Interest themselves are going to start to heat up and the stock market will have a tough 1st half as it starts to discount the trouble elsewhere.  Fed is always reactionary - right now they don't have much cause to do anything other than take a wait and see approach as we all do - next up earnings season where everyone will hone in on the outlooks - now how companies did last quarter

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  178. tend to agree with Anon20 on this one, reasonable bearish prediction.  We might be finishing the wave 5 of iii, still away from the real topping yet.

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  179. Eh - maybe next summer, trying to help mortgage rates down.  Interest themselves are going to start to heat up and the stock market will have a tough 1st half as it starts to discount the trouble elsewhere.  Fed is always reactionary - right now they don't have much cause to do anything other than take a wait and see approach as we all do - next up earnings season where everyone will hone in on the outlooks - now how companies did last quarter

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  180. ...or just "highlight" the black area below the post you want to reply to, and the "reply" button will be visible.  Mine was not working for two days, but now appears to be OK.

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  181. haha. he's short term bullish (next week) and long term bear

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  182. Could any of the EW gurus out there take a look at MSFT?   It started to wake up a few days ago after months of doing nothing.  How high can it go?

    Thanks!

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  183. BB on the daily with closing values as the levels to watch.  I would like to say that I care less about intraday moves although if I am long and the market is dropping (and visa-versa) I do but my trend system for traditional buys and sells only uses closing values.  I use intraday values for buy/sell failure type signals and am developing a cash signal as well with intraday values.

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  184. How about just creating a username like everyone else thus no confusion.
    I have seen the name Guest for a long time and am not sure what the site default is but it isn't too much of a step
    to be creative and make up your own identity.

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  185. Has to do with EW, ask your maui punk guru what 'truncated' means.  The last leg has not fulfilled yet ABOVE the prior smaller leg, the oct.27 top, not even intraday.  SHEESH.  I actually thought you kew something. I feel sorry for you lost little amerikan children. 

    I AM MEGA SUPER BEARISH, ON THE ENTIRE HUMAN RACE, FOR MINIMUM 1 GENERATION.

    Iam more mega bearish than the maui punk.  He still thinks that amerika will rise from this.

    No.  It is china's turn again, for world dominance.  but transition will take min. 2 decades.

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  186. Sweeeeet. It works. Thanks much you glorious bastages.

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  187. Sweeeeet. It works. Thanks much you glorious bastages.

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  188. HAHA.  beware of next week.  unlikely as it seems, from today's weak activity,
    the human planet is going into an utterly delusional, insanely salivating, last phase.
    Why?  For the reason that it needs to.  They have been repeatedly trained to---believe.

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  189. May be a Dog of the Dow run in January.  Was negative for the year I think

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  190. Wow! That's some dog run.  MSFT rarely moves like this.

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  191. I LIKE YOU... I really do. I picture you with a monocle, and a cigarette holder, surrounded by hand-drawn charts with trendlines drawn in ink. Maps of the world with your secret lairs marked out. I could totally party with you. I sincerely mean that. Entertaining, informative, with a touch of eeeeeevil, surrounded by monkey minions. Very nice.

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  192. I was posting as "Guest" for the past few weeks.  I will be using the name "Authentic" from now on since someone else is now using "Guest" also.

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  193. Guest is a generic name for anyone does not make up a nick name

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