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Friday, January 13, 2012

SPX Update: 12-year Study of Investor Sentiment Points to a Top

The latest American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) sentiment survey numbers were released yesterday, and amazingly, were virtually unchanged from the week prior.  For the second week in a row, bearish investors remain at 17%, still near decade-long lows.  This struck me as a rare situation, so I decided to investigate further.

I set out to uncover how the market reacted when there were two or more consecutive weeks of bearish investor percentages this low, using bears below 19% as the control figure (thus allowing for roughly 12% standard deviation in the data figures). After combing through 562 weeks of AAII data by hand, I discovered that since the 2000 market peak, there have only been twelve other occurrences of this scenario.  Interestingly, the current back-to-back reading of less than 19% bearish is the first occurrence we've seen in almost six years.  So indeed, this is a rare set up.

After locking down the dates of prior occurrences, I went on to chart each example on the S&P 500 (SPX), in order to visually coordinate how the market responded to the excessively low bearish numbers.  What I found was that two or more consecutive weeks were always associated with some kind of peak in the market, even during bull markets.  In bull markets, the peak was sometimes minor, but it was still a peak.

There is another very interesting finding in my study.  Without exception, when bearish investors disappeared during bear markets, it was due to a technical breakout on the indices.  In other words, the shift in sentiment was due to market technicals, and not due to an improvement in the fundamental backdrop.  Conversely, this was not the case in bull markets, where the sentiment shifts didn't seem to correlate to any particular technical levels.  This has important connotations regarding the market's position now.

It seems we may be facing a similar situation today, as the market staged a technical breakout in December, yet the fundamental backdrop seems to have improved very little.

As I present the charts, the question investors need to answer for themselves is whether they believe the current market is a bull market or a bear market, because the implications of this data are quite different for each type of market.  If one believes this is a bull market, then these numbers correspond to a coming correction, which may be minor.  If one believes this is a bear market, these numbers correspond to a major top. 

I personally believe this is the start of a major bear market, and that this sentiment data is part of the "calm before the storm."  I am, of course, always open to the market proving me wrong at some point -- there's no bull side or bear side, only the right side. But at the moment, I see far more evidence for a bear market top than for an ongoing bull market.

The first chart I'm presenting shows what happens when sentiment reaches these levels during a bear market (hint: not pretty), as last occurred five times during the 2000-2002 bear.

 
Note how in every single instance, the sentiment numbers shifted in response to a technical market breakout, just as they have today.  One thing bears may want to keep in mind is that during bear markets, these extreme sentiment readings sometimes went on for a third week -- which can only happen if the market isn't falling too much.  Historically, that would suggest the current consolidation/rally could continue for another week  My current expectation is that it will not, however that could always change with new price action and data from the market.

The next chart shows how this sentiment corresponds with bull market peaks from 2003-2005.  Again, two consecutive weeks of bears below 19% hasn't occurred since.  Worth noting is that the very first shift in sentiment for the last bull market did correspond to a technical breakout above resistance (as has occurred now) -- however, it also corresponded to the 50 day moving average crossing up through the 200 day (known as the "golden cross").  So there were actually two strong technical signals to shift sentiment in 2003.  This golden cross technical signal has not occurred in the SPX today, so current sentiment seems to be "jumping the gun" as it did in 2000-2002 with each upside trendline break.


The next chart is the daily chart of the SPX.  Under Elliott Wave Theory, this bear market should unfold in five waves.  It appears the market is in the process of completing the second wave up, which should be followed by a very strong move down in the third wave.  My expectation for the next wave is that it will first carry the SPX below the October lows, and then ultimately much lower.


We remain on the hunt for the top of Minor Wave (2), which has thus far been sitting in the target reversal zone for the entire month of January.  This is not unexpected, as tops generally take time.  Second waves are particularly difficult animals, since they are able to retrace 100% of the prior move without violating any rules.  This makes them difficult to invalidate, and therefore more difficult to predict.  My expectation remains that the 1300-1310 zone should put the brakes on this rally.  This is not to say that the market can't break above this zone briefly, however, I wouldn't expect it to stay above that zone for long.

The short term wave structure remains very messy, which is another factor that adds credence to the idea that the market isn't going to suddenly launch into a sharp rally and break overhead resistance.  Strong impulse waves have certain characteristics early on which usually gives away their intentions. This rally has, so far, not displayed those characteristics.  Instead, it seems to have struggled higher, and burned off much of its energy in the process.  It's a bit like a marathon runner who sprinted his way to exhaustion just as he's approaching the steepest hill in the race -- which, in this case, is the overhead resistance at 1300-1310.  It sure looks like the rally doesn't have the required energy and momentum to break through this zone right now.

My expectation in this regard has remained the same since a week ago on Wednesday.  Assuming that a major top is indeed under construction, the exact penny of the top will probably only be apparent in the rear-view mirror.  The market continues to keep its options open in this regard, and as I stated yesterday, my stance remains that the reversal could begin at any time, if it hasn't already. 


The next level the bears need to take, and hold, is 1285.  The critical levels for the bulls are 1300 and 1310.  At this point, everything that happens in between these two levels is just noise.

In conclusion, I believe the preponderance of evidence points to a major top in formation, or complete -- and we can now add strong historical sentiment data to that collection of evidence.  My expectation remains that after the market finally turns, the October lows will be broken in short order.  Trade safe.

The original article, and many more, can be found at http://PretzelCharts.blogspot.com

518 comments:

  1. We have a break of the lower channel trendline......FINALLY!!!  Could be a good day for shorts.  And a relief if you went short a while ago.

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  2. Futures dropping like a stone. What a change in character!

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  3. Morning, all.   THAT was a lot of friggin work.

    Whatever happens in the coming days, you can't fault me for lack of effort.  :)

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  4. And furthermore, you should be able to earn a Ph.D. out of all this. :-)
    Would that be Dr. Pretzel or Dr. Logic?

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  5. Testing the ES lows again. Chart is ES/120, you can see rules are made for fools. My application of the fib retrace %s, a retrace & to the 50 or 62% level, becomes meaningless now. It they can't wear you out they will scare you out. Strangest chart pattern I have ever seen, one for the books. I am very particular with any H&S label, looking for symmetry so I do not label this a H&S. But do see the %R.

    http://www.screencast.com/users/katzo7/folders/Jing/media/2c2f866f-459d-4316-9f75-95b35c63962e

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  6. Yesterday may have been a failed fifth wave, which implies a strong move down.  Not gonna get too excited 'til bears retake and hold 1285 though.

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  7. Great post Pretzel. +100

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  8. You guys GOTTA actually read the article.  This one's a masterpiece... I think anyway.  :)

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  9. Pretz, seems like yesterday's plunge was a wick that signed the direction...

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  10. my sympathies, seriously ... one of my problems also :(

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  11. That last chart is a thing of beauty. But I think top is in but nothing would surprise me...

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  12. TL,

    Do you mean a truncated 5th? My understanding is that there has to be 5 wavelets to qualify it to be a 5th, no?

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  13. Another drop and pop? :)

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  14. I am having trouble with the ECB issuing money.  They do not back it with anything.  When we look at the big picture did the fed do the same thing with their QE???  As I did not see an increase in the national debt related from their actions. 

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  15. US 10 year is yielding 1.88% ....

    Which is eye-popping. Something is sending the financial chickens to run for cover. Any idea?

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  16. PL,

    As you know, I do not post much. However, your message and analysis today is truly magnificent. God bless you and all the work you do for us.

    Regards,   Daniel B

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  17. Thank you for all you do, Pretzel.

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  18. Great post Pretz, I think that one says it all.

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  19. This is a great article.  The analysis of 2000-2002 is a very good one.  Thanks for all your work!

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  20. Time to take a nap and leave the firework to us. :)

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  21. PL,

    As you know, I do not post much.  However, your message and analysis today is truly amazing.  Quite frankly, it is unbelievable.  Thank you and God Bless you for all you do for us.

    Regards,  Daniel B now optimal7

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  22. Reuter ....

    S&P to cut some European countrys' rating - no details.

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  23. Thanks Daniel!  Spent about 6 hours straight just pouring through 12 years worth of AAII data and then charting it.  TY for actually taking the time to read the article that went with all that work.  :)  

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  24. Great post as always.  A lot of effort and energy is observed in this analysis.  The review of two consecutive weeks of weak bearish views is uniquely PL.  Thanks for the analysis and research.  We are all enlightened by your hard work.

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  25. so thankful for all you do pl. this has been one of the most fascinating classes i've ever taken :)

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  26. Reuters reporting that S&P will downgrade several Eurozone credit ratings today

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  27. Gotta get this sent to Minyanville real quick -- be back in a few. 

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  28.  This could get real ugly.... today.

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  29. PL ...You are friggin awesome. You are truly appreciated. It would take me a week to pull together such a professional, prescient piece of work like you do (if I knew what I was talking about). Thank you.

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  30. G'day all, I'm going to link to my post from yesterday where I discussed  A VERY USEFUL INDICATOR - THE VORTEX INDICATOR!!!!! ... I EVEN POSTED A CHART SO YOU CAN SEE IT HOW IT WORKS.

    Ok enough with the CAPS!!!! - but it was one my better posts. 

    http://pretzelcharts.blogspot.com/2012/01/spx-update-gaps-usually-get-filled.html#comment-409087848

    What I would really like to see is if anyone can post their own SPX chart with the VI.  Anyone??? Katz, I have to believe that you have it???

    BTW if you don't have it on your software, the free TC charts has it.

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  31. Pretzel - if we break yesterday's lows, does that have any significance for the count?

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  32. break below 1285 - look for retes tto set another short

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  33. Article?  You wrote an article?

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  34. Thanks PL, that's some thorough DD, much appreciated.

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  35. Thank you PL. It is a beautiful piece of work you have here, amazing.

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  36. Hi,
    I do not use it and my software does not include it. I have to stick with eSignal so cannot have it. Looks interesting tho. Thnx.   

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  37. Lol - I actually think this time IS different and we'll be lower today.  Nobosy wants to be too exposed if France is downgraded 1-2 notches after the close.

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  38. Great article, PL.  I wonder why the Investor's Intelligence (II) sentiment figures I posted y'day aren't showing the same very low level of bears?  Historical comparisons of II and AAII figures would be interesting.

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  39. If this is truly the start of something, should be a bit of a retrace to about 10 to 10:30 am, then followed by more down..... I  get  the level of ES 1285-6 as a must hold. Give it a point or two.

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  40. Reuters says that S&P will announce several downgrades of the Euro countries, not including Germany.

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  41. The uglier, the better.

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  42. PL - awesome analysis.  Whether or not today is the start of wave 3 or not, this is remarkable work.

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  43. or at least close that gap- if that gap stays open the bulls will have an easy target as we drop

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  44. Do you have a link, William?

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  45. Wow,  I'm really surprised esignal doesn't have it.  Thanks for checking.

    If anyone else has it plz post a chart, I explained why I'm interested in the other post. 

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  46. Another drop-and-pop? :)

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  47. PL,

    Article has been out for over an hour and only 1 comment.  Seems odd!!!  Technical difficulties????

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  48. on another note- again with the overnight gap?  will the cash market ever be tradeable again?

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  49. not until volume returns...until then, levered futures will move the market.

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  50. It's just the end of wave c of a flat again. There can be up with wave (a) so be careful and trad accordingly... I saw this possibility with my post yesterday.

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  51. I like ugly...2:01 a.m. ugly

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  52. The bulls played keep away with their gaps for weeks.  Let's keep 1285 as resistance now - two can play that game. Note: I am clearly talking my book.

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  53. If you look at the SPX the bull had violated the rule - the 5clean wave (c) down didn't completed properly so today gap down is just a correction of correction. The market may still be down more but it will the same the last few day that it will rally...

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  54. Is that a prediction?

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  55. More details please?

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  56. Katz, the web page posted by someone (OK, it's http://www.vortexindicator.com/) include a link to downloads. ESignal is on the list. ESignal can install custom studies, as you probably know already.

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  57. epic battle for 1285

    katzo what are your key levels if we break the support?

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  58. What do you think of PL's suggestion that yesterday's rally might have been a truncated 5th?

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  59. No more sentiment studies for me today.  ;)

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  60. Are you able to chart it DD?

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  61. I recounted c and it had 5 wavelets down. No?

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  62. True first wave of an impulse is expected to take out the last swing low -- that's one of the litmus tests.

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  63. It can be if you are EW follower.. but I think yesterday rally is just a wave (b) and today gap down is wave (c) thus it can be done here or down more it's hard to say...

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  64. levels ES H2
    UP, 88, 84-85*
    DOWN
    77, 73*

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  65. If you were in the same room with me, I would have no choice but to give you a noogie.

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  66. that wasn't a request btw!

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  67. "If this is truly the start of something, should be a bit of a retrace to
    about 10 to 10:30 am, then followed by more down..... I  get  the level
    of ES 1285-6 as a must hold." Lower lows, that is what it is all about.

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  68. Yes, it's 5 wave down but the length of this wave isn't completed properly.

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  69. You mean it should be below the LOD of the day before?

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  70. To everyone who read the article and commented so far, thanks for the kind words.  :) 

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  71. Good morning all and thank you Pl for another perceptive analysis!

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  72. where is everyone?

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  73. SPY 127.43 (cash) looks like an important stop point.  It is the island top's (SPY cash market) H&S projection down from the neckline.

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  74. Possible good drop further now..... (DJIA down~ 200??)
     

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  75. truerangeballisticJanuary 13, 2012 at 5:17 AM

    Excellent research PL. If only accounting firms were so diligent. Great work.

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  76. Tuesday's up gap closed.

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  77. The H&S looks like "Beeker" being hit hard by defensive lineman.

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  78. I think I may actually prefer the 5th wave ending diagonal count which is mentioned on the chart, but not annotated.  If we the diagonal count is correct, we'll get a pretty quick move down to 1250-1260 in the next few sessions.

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  79. Happy early Birthday!!! http://uk.reuters.com/article/2012/01/13/uk-eu-ratings-slovakia-idUKTRE80C17P20120113 

    There are many articles on it now.  The first one that said "on Friday" was received through my Android phone from Fidelity news; but there are many now on google news.

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  80. Hmm... a few posters are having trouble w/ Disqus and can't see the comments, apparently.  Two so far have been "where is everyone?"   I wish I knew what the trouble was...

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  81. CNBC alert - Greek debt agreement may not be voluntary - meeting is pausing to "reflect".....

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  82. god i hope this isn't another bear trap

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  83. FYI trolls, sold my tza just now at $24.44.  Suck it.

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  84. Another one that says on "Friday", today: http://uk.reuters.com/article/2012/01/13/uk-eurozone-sp-netherlands-idUKTRE80C13W20120113

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  85. Reuters.com - S&P downgrade France

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  86. dude, there's a lot of up-gaps to be closed on SPY.... next stop 126

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  87. Today with the gap down, it's very hard to count. As you know, wave (c) is very strong...

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  88. Nope, looks like 73, covering short ES position....

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  89. From what I am seeing we are in wave 3 of "something" in all major indices: NYA, SPX, NDX, DJIA etc

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  90. annon's dollar snake is uncoiling

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  91. Yeeee Haaaaaaaaaaa baby!!!!

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  92. Greece's "voluntary default" no longer a requirement.

    When CDS's are triggered, all the naked swimmers will stink up the joint. :)

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  93. ROFLMAO..."reflect"

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  94. "Conservative traders would wait for a break of this well-defined uptrend line" - Looks like it's been broken. Is everybody jumping in short now?

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  95. News Update:

    1. Reuters: French TV reports that France rating downgraded by S&P citing government official.
    2. Bloomberg: IFF says Greece debt talks have been halted following "unconstructive" negotiations.

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  96. CNBC reports that voluntary hair cut of Greece debt may no longer be a requirement, which means a technical default and a CDS event may not be avoidable! Serious implications. Also France has been downgraded.

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  97. It can either be wave 3 of 1 of Minor (3)...or wave 3 of 3 of Minor (3) depending on your preference whether that was v completed yesterday morning or failed v at the closing yesterday. My view with untrained eye :)

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  98. Vortex graph posted, using default parameters.

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  99. I love the title of this one:

    U.S. stocks smacked by downgrade talk       01/13 10:25 AM

    NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- U.S. stocks opened sharply lower on Friday on media reports of coming downgrades of euro-zone nations by ratings company Standard & Poor's."With the likelihood of an S&P credit downgrade of France, Spain, Italy, Belgium and Portugal, it's important to understand that number one, they are just following what the markets have priced in and number two, Fitch and Moody's in some circumstances have already moved ahead of S&P," wrote Peter Boockvar, equity strategist at Miller Tabak, in a note.A report showing consumer sentiment rose in January failed to boost equities, which were battered by reports that S&P downgrades of euro-area nations could come as soon as Friday.

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  100. DD,
    You found it in eSignal?

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  101. You can input the parameters to chart it yourself. 

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  102. beware the venom ... but you know, venon can be used for medicine :-)

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  103. Look at the candle on the E 120, after such a strong impulse the algos come in and retrace the last red candle 50% of its move...

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  104. Thank you for this, and to Green for bringing it to our attention.

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  105. It's a downloadable study. Did you see my posted chart? I'll write you the instructions if you need them.

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  106. Yes, I can change the parameters. Just don't know what the "best" ones are. :-)

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  107. My gut says that it will tank dramatically by the end of the day.

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  108. Awesome, that looks more like what I have on my charting than what is on TC charts.  Check out how it indicated several key reversals, including Oct 4. 
    Obviously we appear to have turned the corner on the rally, that's not to say that we won't see another peak as was the case on Oct 27, after the Oct 24 signal. 



    It would make quite a bit of sense in terms too, in that the 5th wave crowd might see the current dip as another chance to get in on the rally, only to be devoured  as it has been and always will be for them. 

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  109. It's a long weekend and nobody wants to hold onto anything with the downgrades.

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  110. You do eSignal? I have some tricks specific to eSignal. We will talk.

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  111. If the bulls can't retake 1285ish... it's OVah.

    Amazing how the charts led the news again...

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  112. I find that part of EW amazing and fascinating.

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  113. Default of 14 looks to work quite remarkable to me. I don't plan on changing it.  If I were going to about the only other thing I would choose is 13 - the nearest Fib #. 

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  114. PL, could you pass my email to Katz, please? (the current email, not the old one)

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  115. Isn't the day a bit young to tell?

    It may be another drop-and-pop. :)

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  116. agree PL, on the same page, orrr chart....

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  117. And as per Furrr, it's amazing how the planets dictate the course of the world, also. ;-)

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  118. Yes, Thanks Green!

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  119. Yes, right now the length of vortex is set to 14.

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  120. Sorry, I know I shouldn't feed the trolls, just didn't want one to pop their head in a few days from now if we're up and try to mock me, without a timestamp of when I sold (in addition to stating my then-underwater purchase levels last night).

    Still in the process of moving fully into the futures market, old habits are hard to break - like always putting limit orders ending in 4.

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  121. dle7319,

    Looking like a 3 wave corrective c. Yikes.

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  122. algos buying here, careful ST establishing short entries, imo wait til mid afternoon

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  123. To all bears, happy trading.  You've been waiting for this for a while.  Pretzel, congratulations on yet another awesome call.  Nailed it...again!  I'll be watching and cheering the team from the 90 day day-trading penalty box.  

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  124. It's very hard to say because of the gap down... It may down again just below today's as wave 5. In this case, wave 1 which is the gap is the longest.

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  125. Different language choice - not "dictate" but reflect - common axiom is "as above, so below"  :)

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  126. Sure.  That's why I said "if the bulls can't retake 1285ish."  If they can, then something else going on.

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  127. I'm out just in case. :)

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  128. Everyone must be on there way to Pretzel's house for the party?

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  129. But if the next wave down (market may restest its low) is above today's low then it's more than likely going up but (again?) with the gap down the market may end toward today's low or lower. Sorry, that the scenario that we have to deal with ... It's challenge, isn't it?

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  130. Now sipping my favorite brandy and watching from the safety of the sideline. :)

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  131. Be that as it may. But 1 and 3 were looooong. I'm not a PIIGS. :)

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  132. To whom it may concern,

    This is what I would have shorted.  Maybe I can live vicariously through someone...

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  133. http://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/business/france-sp-downgrades-french-credit-rating-535800.html

    The downgrades to be confirmed at closing: "The move will be confirmed after the closure of the US markets later tonight when ratings agency Standard & Poor's will downgrade a number of Eurozone countries."

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  134. How long is this retrace going to last?  If we move above 1285 did the bulls win the war again?

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  135. You're good... Yes, it's everyone's guess at this point with the scenario above.

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  136. First Gapfill complete, but springing higher.  What are the knockout levels currently?

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  137. I'm seeing the first backtest of the bottom trendline of the last chart fail...good.

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  138. Awe..Reg-T....that sucks...Sorry to hear that Juan. Now you must know how Lindsay Lohan feels.... :(

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  139. that sucks Juan....I'd open an account with a different broker so that you aren't locked out. I actually use both TDameritrade and Interactive Brokers simultaneously incase I get too close to being labeled.

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  140. 1279 & change is the neckline of the old H&S.  That would be even better for bears.

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  141. if you open up a new account elsewhere you could potentially transfer those funds...just saying...

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  142. Hey IP+1,

    Not sure if you can see this, but there does seem to be a glitch. I only see 5 comments, but on my Ipohone there are like 80 something. I've cleared, refreshed restarted... no luck. Using IE8.

     Actually.. the glitch might be that everyone is on their mobile phones headed to Maui...?

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  143. That will give the PPT 3 days to get a plan together....diabolical.

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  144. 1280 gap filled and aggressively bought... i dont think today is the day for a sustained drop, but a perfect setup for a short buster rally since no one is expecting it... we'll see!

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  145. So I'm short DB going into the day. My largest short....after the downgrade it is down nearly 5%...in the last 30 minutes it has retraced 4% of the drop....wtf? is a france downgrade good for banks?

    And I went short GMCR at the bottom today before it too retraced ALL of it's losses. So far, big bear trap for Rocky. Getting really fuckin tired of this shit.

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  146. Why not just switch broker? Or does this PDT flag stick with you?

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  147. algo buys

    http://www.screencast.com/users/katzo7/folders/Jing/media/0b3c0a78-44bc-4465-ac94-5ff1f5965d32

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  148. I have one with Lightspeed.  IB booted me...I wish I could get back in!  Who does that remind me of?  Hmm.  Anyway, you're right, although at this time, it would take at least a week for the transfer.

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  149. nope, its account based.

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  150. Unless the bears move now and decisively, the bulls may succeed by hanging in just lon enough for the Fed to get ready to announce QE3, the rhetric for which has alreadt started earnest again!

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  151. Probably read that book ages ago. Can't remember a thing. :)

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  152. As I understand it, IB's system stops you from making the trade that will trigger the flag. Customer protection. :)

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  153. RTG,
    You got to be careful with this chit. Got to know what the plan (Market movers) is. "algos buying here, careful ST establishing short entries, imo wait til
    mid afternoon
    appears they set their buy level at ES 127" I do not want to see anyone lose money.....

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  154. does this suggest that eventually (later today) the bears will be able to bring it down again?

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  155. Thanks for the update, will check it out

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  156. short here a 1285.50 really tight stop

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  157. Sounds like you might have chased GMCR.  I'm shorting it as well, not from today though.  It appears as though it is currently topping its upward wave, should continue its rather slow move down in a bit.

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  158. There will be no QE3 anytime soon.

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  159. You're nuts dude. The sucker has a V-shape rebound. :)

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  160. no one knows.... just have to follow the progress.

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  161. you are correct sir- 1st stop triggered, 2nd only pennies away.  whats your entry? 

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  162. goin' out for Chinese...

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  163. I do SPY, bought some puts at the close yesterday. Took all my chips off the table when wave 3 just hooked back. I'm now watching from the sideline to make some sense out of the darn thing. :)

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  164. yeah...I've been punished for shorting into strength plenty of times and now I'm getting punished for shorting into weakness....just can't win it seems. I really thought GMCR was topping, that little rebound over the last couple of days didn't look that impressive because there was no follow through.

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  165. that concerns me...why did IB boot you? wonder if there is something I should be worried about.

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  166. Hi PL!

    I noticed that your last two updates do not have an "alternate count". What are your percentage chances that we are not at 5 of (2) and that there is one more wave up before the top?

    Thanks!

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  167. well par for the course would be to chop here the rest of the day, the move seems to happen in the morning then dead the rest of the session.

    i trade the sds, good call on the spy puts

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  168. morning y'all. don't have much to add, then that this was to be expected at some point. Man how long did it have to take? anyway, question is now; fake out or break out?

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  169. part of it was my inexperience, and part was their sorry excure for customer service.  In reality, I left because they refused to talk to me at all.  There was what I considered an algo-generated misunderstanding, and it was up for review...indefinitely, and my account got frozen.  They flat out told me they dont expect to get to it anytime in the foreseeable future, and to feel free to close the account.

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  170. We just hit the 50% retrace is SPY (cash)  = 125.73...  Down from here?

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  171. stopped out.  done for the day unless we rally hard.

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  172. Their platform is probably the best I've used.  How is TD Ameritrade?  I'm considering that one.  Do you use the Think-or-Swim platform.

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  173. Sorry... meant 128.73

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  174. I can't imagine there won't be some 'real' selling into the close.  I think they're just programming the bots to pump prices intra day to get better prices this afternoon.  But we'll see, 1285 seems to have been at least temporarily recaptured.  Surprising how weak the resistance was there.

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  175. Problem is, unless there's some giant downgrade, i.e.- France dropped to BBB, this isn't a surprise anymore.

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  176. lol, you can go post on Lightspeed's site about how IB sucked, but they'll still never be as good as IB...

    :D

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  177. Today's Friday OPEX, I would not be surprised if SPX makes it all the way back to 1290 to close.

    Just to inflict maximum pain to the largest number. :)

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  178. I went back to see Pretz' Wednesday article, what we are seeing right now could very well fit is Alternate scenario to reach 1310...seems this morning we bounced off that lower channel trend.

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  179. It seems that possibly it's developing inverted head & shoulder reversal pattern so be careful with its trap. It can turn around very quick...

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  180. Yup, the rally has fizzed out,  gotta retake SPX 1282. 

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  181. True.  We've got to watch that possibility.

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  182. appears 1279.75 ES is  now algo sell point, dunno...  hard one.

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