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Thursday, January 19, 2012

SPX Update: Rally Reaches Important Resistance Zone

Wednesday's market action pushed up into the 1300-1310 resistance zone I've been talking about for a couple weeks, and this is the bears last real line of defense in the short term.  We've looked at so many indicators over the past couple week that seem to be signaling a top (sentiment, divergences, numerous indicators, unfilled gaps beneath the market, wave counts, etc.), that it's hard to believe the bulls will push through here.  But ultimately, the price action rules.  If the bears can't stop it here, the S&P 500 (SPX) is clear for a run to 1325 -- and potentially to 1350. 

Logic dictates that I have to continue to favor the bears at this juncture, due to all the circumstantial evidence. But indicators and historical studies don't always play out as expected.  The bulls have an intact uptrend; while it seems the bears have just about everything else.

For the bulls to show that they're serious, the market needs to break above, and hold, 1310.  A head-fake breakout briefly above 1310 wouldn't do much technical damage to the bear case; but sustained trade above that level might.  You'll see what I mean when we look at the longer-term charts.  In any case, we have to be prepared for the possibility.

Fundamentals seem to favor the bears as well, especially if you believe that governments need to take in more money than they're spending in order to be considered solvent.  But as Keynes said, "The market can remain irrational a lot longer than you can remain solvent."

Given the current fundamentals, my twist on that old saying would be: "The market can remain insolvent a lot longer than you can remain rational."    

Certainly, despite particular fundamentals, there may be bullish influences acting behind the scenes that we simply can't see.  The cash fleeing Europe into the U.S., which we discussed yesterday, is clearly one contributing factor.  The European Central Bank's operations are certainly another -- and Lord only knows what Uncle Ben's up to half the time.

The charts are now pointing to a big move -- which direction it heads is going to depend on whether 1310 is captured by the bulls or not.  There's one potential count which could put finally the bulls to rest -- but it's one of those patterns that, if it doesn't play out for the bears, could morph into another melt-up rally.

Before we get to the short term charts, let's take a look at some longer-term indicators and patterns, and some of the reasons I remain inclined to favor the bears over the intermediate term.  The first chart shows a very interesting divergence between the broad-based NYSE Composite index and the SPX.  In 2009, the NYA supported the SPX's rally -- in fact, it often led.  This showed that investors weren't just buying a few select stocks, but were buying the broader market -- "A rising tide lifts all boats," as they say.  Currently the NYA is lagging the SPX considerably, and has yet to break above its October highs.  The last time the two indices diverged like this was August 2008.


The next chart is a daily SPX chart and shows some secondary indicators.  These indicators behave in certain ways during bear markets, and in different ways during bull markets.  There are two things of note on the chart: 

1)  The relative strength index (RSI) is still in "bear-market bounce" territory. 
2)  Standard deviation was still showing bear market volatility levels as recently as last month.


The next two charts are the short term wave counts.  Whoever wins the battle around 1310 will probably determine which of these is unfolding.  The preferred count (below) suggests the top could form today or Monday.

 
The alternate count suggests the market could run into the 1325-1350 zone.  The concern I have with this alternate count is that the move it suggests could potentially flip many long-term indicators into a bullish position.  If this second count unfolds, we'll have to watch the indicators carefully - but we'll worry about that if and when we come to it.


In conclusion, the 1310 zone remains important.  Again, based on the preponderance of evidence, logic dictates that I favor the bears over the intermediate term -- but logic doesn't always work when it comes to the market.  Trade safe.

The original article, and many more, can be found at http://PretzelCharts.blogspot.com

410 comments:

  1. Good Morning PL :)

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  2. @PL, good morning. I'm betting on big move down this Friday. And in the meantime, or whenever, let's hope we don't get 1350. :-)

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  3. This Friday being today, or next week?

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  4. I have had never-ending computer disfunctions tonight.  Pretty annoyed that HP replaced the HDD, but the computer still crashes.  The display driver keeps going haywire and crashing, then it recovers and my screen brightness gets stuck on "OMG THAT'S FRIGGIN' BRIGHT WHERE ARE MY SUNGLASSES" and I have to reboot.  This happened about an hour ago, and I had to plow through the update anyway, because I didn't have time to reboot, since it wanted to update a bunch of crap and I knew it would take 5 minutes.

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  5. Hoping for this Friday opex, tomorrow. Today is only Thursday :)

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  6. LMAO -- my computer says it's Friday.  I thought this week seemed extra short....

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  7. Designed for maximum frustration, for bulls and bears alike ;-)

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  8. I think DD is refering to tomorrow RTH Friday.  It will all come down to the results and outlook for earnings of big tech = INTC, MSFT, IBM, FCS, FLEX, GOOG, and GE - all due before Friday's RTH's.

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  9. Maybe markets will run out of good news announcements soon... Big bank earnings are over, good US economic data are out, Greek PSI has been saved, European bond yields have fell, credit crunch has been averted, etc., etc. Which means that most good news have now been priced in...

    Btw, could someone please explain to me what does January options expiry day mean and WHY this tends to be negative for the markets?

    Thanks a lot!

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  10. LOL, that's why you wrote in the article that the top may be in today or Monday? You forgot Friday! :-)

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  11.  OPEX is not necessarily negative for the mrkts. It depends on where the put/call ratio stands, an overloading by one side or the other can influence Thursday/Friday as the MMs want to destroy value in that largest side.

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  12. It's the day front-month (January in this case) options expire.  It's bearish in January based on the last 13 years -- it's been down 10 of those years.

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  13. Yeah, I just fixed it.  I was so happy to get this computer back... now I hate it.  :D

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  14. HP machines are the worst! For critical work such as yours, I would recommend a custom built desktop PC with only what you need installed in it.

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  15. And since calls are dominant now, if the market moves down, these expire worthless. Makes sense if you've written a huge amount of covered calls.

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  16. Chances are there is something wrong with your mother board, but they changed your HDD as a consolation  prize - delay and extend strategy.  I have suffered with HP before.

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  17. truerangeballisticJanuary 19, 2012 at 4:32 AM

    Looks like this never ending melt up has more legs to it. PL I havee never really seen a market move straight up like this since the first QE. Really has the smell of some monkey business.

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  18. Yeah, it looks like today's earnings will determine the market's direction going forward.  Perfect day for a bull-trap:  Short squeeze runup to EOD and then slam the door shut when all world retail markets are closed and OPEX the following day. 

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  19. ok, nice to see some bears giving up here. taking a small short. @ 1310

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  20. PLZ be careful here with that thinking.

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  21. lol- I haven't given up yet.  Was busy shorting 1307 ES.

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  22. though too many bears now! really tight stop here

    headlines for realmoney:

    Better Opportunities Await

    The Gift of Lowered Expectations

    It Doesn't Pay to Fight Mr. Market

    This Is Not Convincing

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  23. truerangeballisticJanuary 19, 2012 at 4:42 AM

    I agree. Sorry for any wrong inference. I know that so many macro events point towards some type of correction and wave structure is saying the same thing. I guess that some last minute euphoria is needed for a top. I appreciate your insights as well katzo7

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  24. no, i meant OTHER people, lol.  your post was much more level headed today, i think the last few days the board has been way too confident in the bear case.  seeing some fear is... comforting.

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  25. "This is Not Convincing"...I was waiting for your next line to be "You are getting very sleepy". Nice try LOL

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  26. not my headlines, but i am a little sleepy today.

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  27. I am very sleepy, and may have to turn in "early" tonight, at like 5 a.m. or so.

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  28. Gotta respect the price action, is how I see it.  Even when everything else seems to say otherwise...

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  29. Wouldn't surprise me.  Cheap bastages.

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  30. "It Doesn't Pay to Fight Mr. Market" coming in an uptrend sounds like a bullish headline to me.

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  31. Your a machine PL...A MACHINE!!!

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  32. Reminds me a bit of Feb-Apr 2010. I held shorts during that huge run and lost a boat-load of money. Finally capitulated at the end of April only to see the flash-crash a week later. Haven't traded much since that beating. Knowing it must end eventually yet seeing your capital continually drained away is an awful feeling.

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  33. i guess it was pretty obvious the last few weeks- what better reason to rally than everything points to a decline?

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  34. Think that is it on upside.

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  35. Scary.  I could only make it through the first :57 seconds.   :D

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  36. Awfully quiet here, must be everyone covering after the beating of the last two months

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  37. Philly FED 7.3 vs 10 expected.

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  38. Toshiba laptops only for me  x 3, HP printers (Epson can GTH), and Dell PCs.

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  39. Awfully quiet here, everyone must be off covering after the beating of the last couple months

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  40. What beating of the last couple months? 

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  41. The SPX was smacked down hard and fast once it reached around 1,312.

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  42. Look at that freakin' timing !!!!!

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  43. Feb thru April 2010 was very painful.

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  44. I wish every month was like the last 3.

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  45. 45s for me....get yourself a Toshiba laptop...been happy with the three I have owned. Saying that, I now expect this one to dump on me in 3...2.

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  46. multiyear high on ndx

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  47. Nice.  Hope it sticks.  I'm about tired of counting the waves on this "rally."

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  48. sorry for posting so much- last thought- above all i think the hard trade s always the best trade- being bearish the last few weeks has been the easy trade- the market was overbought, europe, etc etc

    NOW that its obvious to everyone that 1330 is in play, we'll dip.

    was it all in the charts?  yes and no, because charts can always be revised.  BUT, dear pretz and board, knowing when to target the reversals is key, just dont have conviction either way.  In fact, conviction is the first sign you need to step back and reassess, because conviction is the ultimate emotion.. 

    Be a pebble in the river or some such zen thing.

    anyway.  i see we are pulling back from the days highs right now, tbd if it'll stick.  moving stops up now

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  49. Honestly, you would think I'd have learned.  This is literally my third HP laptop that's developed HP Hingitis -- which is where the left side hinge cracks from all the heat coming out.  THREE in a row.  I thought the first one was a fluke -- then for this one, I thought they had sufficienly redesigned it.  Apparently, I'm too trusting.

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  50. Shorted the sucker ....

    Hope to ride it to 1280 ish. :)

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  51. Then go long to 1330'ish ....

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  52. Very funny. With my system only make money, don't loose it. That is what stops are for.

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  53. I think it might bounce back up for the next 50 minutes (till 11:00).

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  54. I seriously do with every month was like the last three.  More than 100 ES points of profit each month.  This month has been a bit slow so far, though.

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  55. May be ....

    Strong data, weak market - sign for a pullback is due. :)

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  56. Think it will. With your understanding of mrkt dynamics it provides a good 'why' for me. Thanks PL, stuff I do not have time to or the knowledge of to do.

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  57. HP...hmmm...aren't they the folks who were (for awhile) getting out of the computer thingy. Their printers rock, and actually their PCs aren't bad either.

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  58. Funny how some people think that if you're bearish you have to hold your positions forever and ride out all the ups and downs.  No thanks!

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  59. Out of all GLD and my oil plays.

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  60. Weekly AAII Sentiment numbers are out:  47.2% bulls; 23.6% bears

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  61. I was just going by my Flux timing indicators. 11:00 would be a good time to short.

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  62. I like Lenovo, they have good phone service and actually replace stuff quickly.  Lenovo puts a bunch of software on your computer but not as much as Dell. 

    That said I recently took my i7 laptop off of daily usage and am using a homebuilt PC.  The PC was built right before I purchased my i7 so it is blazingly fast.  This thing smokes the laptop.

    Joe

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  63. Dunno here... this ST structure has kept me guessing for a week or longer.  Could still be part of a 4th wave.  I honestly haven't felt this unsure on ST waves in several months.

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  64.  What we look for is lower highs and lower lows. So far. . . .

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  65. "Discipline Must Trump Conviction" is one of my trading rules.  And post as much as you want -- I definitely enjoy the banter/chatter on the blaaaaaaaaaaawg.  :)

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  66. Yeah, my desktop is way faster, too.  But I can't sit out back on my desktop.  :)

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  67. Pretzel, in periods when you're forecasting the top is in/near, do you play shorts only intraday, or do you do some longs also?

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  68.  Should drop now back into down channel. Let's see.

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  69. Katz, BTW nice call on the ES 1309 target. Hit 1309.25 at around 8:41am EST. So far that is standing as the high.

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  70. DD, somewhere on the thread you asked how I play if I think a top is near -- if I think that's the case, I'm pretty much going to play short only.  But I take profits quick and often trying to game tops, instead of short and hold.  Once I know the trend is down, then I hold. 

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  71. Saw that, thnks Michael.

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  72. Double top right there?

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  73. if you create your own elevated laptop 'platform', as I have, to dissipate the underneath overheating, you would not have these problems, p-head, I am surprised such a 'smart amerikan knowhow' as yourself, has not thought of this before, at least after your 1st one cracked out, it is OBVIOUS, boy..

    Simple.  I noticed the overheating months ago on mine, I realized that the laptop design was not allowing for enough air circulation, so I created a hard cardboard elevated platform for it (I am using it right now), with with elevating resting sections, front and back, allowing more free underneath.  (can be made of light plywood, or plastic, or whatever), maybe I shoud have patented it, but give it to you (and your readers now of course), because I have so many ideas, I don't have time for patent bullshit.

    --             --
    ------------

    above is a crosssection of the design of the platform, the support at front and back run the entire length of platform, for you will note, that all the air intakes/releases on underside of laptop, are not in the front nor back lengthwise.

    and this is the only donation you will ever get from ME, maui child, except, of course, for the ideas you steal from ME regularly, without admitting it.

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  74.  Who is good at lookin at volume. It should be drying up right now on the retest.

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  75. Alright, I need to get some sleep.  Also, I'm trying to update my BIOS, so my computer needs to shut down.  GL!  bbl.  :)

    Hoping I won't get stopped right after signing off...

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  76. retest?  1313 is a new high, breakout of the 15 day channel....

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  77. PL,
    Been lurking since Sept after linking in through Minyanville. The work you do is fantastic - thanks for all your efforts. In today's article, by "sustained trade above" 1310, are you looking for time, price, or both? Can you give an idea of your parameters?

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  78. Rate on 30-year mortgage down to record 3.88 pct.
    Average rate on 30-year fixed mortgage down to record low of 3.88 pct.; 15-year to 3.17 pct.

    just fyi

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  79. Retest of the 1309 ES level.

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  80. long and strong. not fighting it.

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  81. megaphone on SPX 1 min???

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  82. Thanks for that. I was wondering how you work the overall market analysis into your trading. I think I get what you're saying.

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  83. This is a short squeeze in slow motion. A scaredy cat rally. People a scared to go long, and when they are long they go out way to early and have to go back in. No weakness, no bear. If today brings no weakness, then it may run a while.

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  84. is that bullish

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  85. p-head, I sent you a solution below, to your laptop overheating problems, it is the only donation you will ever get from ME, in helping ME lose a ton of money, over the last 3 months, were your short term direction has been wrong, minimum 75% of the time, on a daily basis.   For I have only been wrong over the same span of time, 50% of time.

    that said, I have 1 last bullet left in MY gun, and I am going to drive it into this FAKE 'bull' market, today. 
    one last attempt, to make all MY money back that I have lost, in this next month, just with february puts.
    I have done this before, gotten behind for 14 rounds, but in the last 15th, I punch the sucker so hard, I WON.

    I have more to say on this market, I will write it later, but for now, crucial level for gold is $1680, and still holding.
    The dollar index has backed up still a bit further, at roughly 80.5, but it is still in the coiled snake range, so beware.

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  86. your real funny and really short

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  87. Google will report earnings after the close today.   Their Q1 earnings report is usually a good one because it includes holiday advertising spend--best quarter of the year.  This has the potential of moving the market up a bit further.

    However, tech companies (INTC, DELL, etc.) that depend on hardware sales may struggle because of the impact of the Thailand flooding causing delay of production/shipment.

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  88. Scotty_Doesnt_KnowJanuary 19, 2012 at 6:20 AM

    ANNONN20,  If PL's predictions have done so much damage to your account, then why are you on this blog every day?

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  89. wall of worry...  people are FORCED to go long because they have missed so much already.  Shorts try to top, are stopped out higher, thus spiking the market higher and higher, very slow and steady.  Is it A fake rally?  It doesn't mater.  1313 is 1313.

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  90. fyi to all:
    A  slimline mounting platform with two fans embedded to dissipate heat  is readily available at most computer repair shops. The platform is powered through an available USB port.
    I have also seen them at Wal-Mart for short money.

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  91. Hey Katz - what do you show for intraday count?  If this is a five wave up from yesterday's open, I'm calculating an ES goal of 1315.55.  Any thoughts?

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  92. imagine what will happen wen funds start coming in- 1550 is very very possible before may- we were at 1080 just a few month ago..

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  93. I have EW5s all over the place, on all time frames I watch.

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  94. lol- that chart has so many lines how do you chose which one to bet on?

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  95. What time frames do you watch?

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  96. everyone on this bog is a masochist... 15 days of suffering!

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  97. 1, 3, 5, 10, 15, 60, 120, 240, 480, and DAY.

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  98. Sorry, I meant ES goal of 1310.95 if wavelet 4 ended at 1299.15 in early morning hours.

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  99. Tgt on the ES 120 is exactly 1309. Give that a few points leeway.

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  100. Since your name states that you know nothing, I will slowly explain to you, the OBVIOUS reason.
    Because I totally agree wih his longterm megabear opinion, and because he is an expert elliottician.
    And if you reread what I wrote, I especifically said he has been wrong SHORTterm daily for 3 months,
    at least 75% of the time, on preferred count, and I KNOW I am correct, and anyofyou can track it also.

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  101. Scotty_Doesnt_KnowJanuary 19, 2012 at 6:45 AM

    OK, understand now.  I appreciate you explaining that slowly for me.  Do you think all of the extra negative BS in your posts helps anyone?

    VIX is now sitting on top of it's lower Bollinger Band.

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  102. r u guys still holding tza. i remember a few weeks back seeing charts on buy reccomdeations. think i may buy some here. is this a good level since we are close to 1320. should i put a stop at which area ty in advance

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  103. VIX and VXX are sinking into nowhere land. Incredible ....

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  104. Paolo Giacobbe PiolJanuary 19, 2012 at 6:52 AM

    Statistically speaking the resistence is at 1320 and if it will go over 1320 we will see good news until February

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  105. I believe Anon to be a dom rather than a sub. I could be wrong though.

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  106. Are these reliable predictors, anyway?

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  107. If you are going to go in with triple-leverage, wait until the turn is confirmed (SPX 1270).  If you enter here and this thing continues to melt up for the next 6 weeks, you will really be hurting.  If you *must* take a position here, I would go in small with no leverage.

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  108.  I am fully short now, all accts., all positions.

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  109. Not sure. I think the historical range is 20-15 for VIX.

    But I'm not going to fight the market until they both settle down. Either the market is incredibly complacent or is very calm. Half a trillion Euros + another half a trillion USD are certainly very calming. :)

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  110. That's a powerful statement, coming from you! I'm waiting till 13:50 to buy additional puts. Using my Flux timing indicators.

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  111. Are you bullish, bearish or neutral? :)

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  112. I think people are dumping their protective puts. If true, that is bullish.

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  113. Yes.  Or at least coincident.  If VXX spikes at a turn point or if it starts to rise in divergence with the market going up, it is a good signal that we will change diretion.

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  114. It's hard to maintain our contrarian conviction, either at market top or bottom.  Those who do will often be rewarded.

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  115. Anon20, I wish you luck on your last bullet! Sincerely. At some point, reality must win over insanity, right?

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  116. But it is currently dropping.

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  117. right there witt you buddy- feel like a stone against a tsunami... i get stopped out again im moving to alaska

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  118. ive got 500 TZA at 23.45 i bought on the 12th jan

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  119.  VIX is not a leading indicator. Mrkt has to fall which provides panic which raises the VIX. VIX is a lagging  of confirming indicator, forgettaboutit. MAs are lagging indicators. Divergence is a good indicator but lousy for timing. EWaves are leading indicators, as stated, EW5s are appearing on ALL time frames.

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  120. Hey, there's nothing wrong with shorting a bull market.

    After all, nothing goes in a straight line. No? :)

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  121. katzo7, do you mind if I ask what kind of stops you've got?

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  122. If that's a 5, that is one looong one. What is your first corrective level?

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  123. I respectfully disagree, katz07.  At major turning points, VXX will begin to rise slowly as the market continues making new highs - that's the signal.

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  124. truerangeballisticJanuary 19, 2012 at 7:20 AM

    Katzo7 I know you mainly trade the ES but do you have any ideas on the NDX now that it has blown thru 2412 and 2438. These were my TL from July 26 11 high. Not much resistance up here. But the 2438 was right before the downward  move at the end of July and beginning of August. The wave count is quite different here though. I appreciatee any thoughts.

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  125. No stops put in yet, finger on the tirgger at this point, What I do after entry is to watch the candle action. All based on ly levels. I see something I do not like I get out. So far everything seems okay. Stops will go in at 2 pm. By then we will know character of the mrkt. Always have to give my tgt levels a few points leeway. With this bullish move it does not surprise me we busted my 1309 by a couple of ES points. What percentage is that? True character of the mrkt will appear around 2 pm. Oil and gold selling off a bit, in concert with what I think mrkt will do. Perhaps PMs and oil signaling the turn first?

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  126. Should be a EW1 down (10 min.) to around 1304 to 08, first sign. Should be before 2 pm...

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  127. Paolo Giacobbe PiolJanuary 19, 2012 at 7:25 AM

    In March 2000 SP reached 1527 then corrected and in September 2000 it was bak at 1517, great run it lost only 0,44%. Then in two years SP lost 49%. Let's take it easy and let's leave the market to make its course

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  128. just put some long hedges up for sale to prime this pump

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  129. Not disputing if a bull or bear mrkt. Just in it to make $$.

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  130. For what it's worth. Chart should be self-explanatory.

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  131. I should add:  At tops it goes flat or rises ever so slightly as the market continues higher.  At bottoms, it usually gives non-confirm signals on a lower low in the market with a lower peak on the VXX.

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  132. yes, it's been 15-20 historically; but when the Greece news came out in March, my personal view of the vix range is between 20 - 33.  i would not expect the vix now to stay below 19/20ish for long.

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  133. Yes, most definitely!

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  134. Thank you.  Is 1304 to 1308 ES or cash?

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  135. There are 5 distinct type of trading days. Anyone remember who developed that? So we can do some internet research it? I will be working on these distinct personalities of trading days in the future, try to categorize them. Let us see which day this is.

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  136. Great attitude.

    Market goes up and it comes down. You just have to watch you entry and plan your exit.

    Bulls make money, so do bears. Hogs .... :)

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  137. well that got it moving, selling more....

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  138. hi sdk,

    that's just anon being anon. :)  have to just be open minded and take what anon says objectively and not personally.  he's like the family member that you love and hate at the same time.

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  139. deep down... de e p    d e e p down inside, that comment might have touched anon... just have to dig de e p down...

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  140. a stop for any ES day trader should be set above HOD of 1311....

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  141. Thank you for the chart.

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  142. I start with how much I'm willing to lose on a single trade including round trip commissions, b/c there's always an excellent chance that things will go horribly wrong. Then I look at ATR and recent support and resistance to try and figure out how much leeway I need to have a good chance not to get shaken out by normal jitter. Then I divide the first number by the second number and that gives me a max position size.

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  143. second batch about to trigger

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  144. Always ES since that is what I day trade, add  6 for SPX...

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  145. Well, I say it's Thursday.  PL says Friday.  We can't even get agreement on that!

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  146. No, I don't look at it.

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  147. Is VXX rising now? Notice, I did not mention VXX, only VIX.

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  148. Looks like oil may have an outside reversal day.
    Is this a reversal day for everything?

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  149. Paolo Giacobbe PiolJanuary 19, 2012 at 7:57 AM

    I like the idea that charts should be self-explanatory. My Primary Trend is still positive 

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  150. truerangeballisticJanuary 19, 2012 at 7:57 AM

    I appreciate the reply though.

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  151.  For anyone who is reel [sic] good this next bit is not for you.

    For anyone open to learning, I am providing a blow-by-blow description of what I see. Always right? No. But if wrong I will immediately correct what I see. I did that last nite after close when I first said down to bottom of megaphone (1290-85), then corrected that not ten minutes after I posted saying new tgt of 1309 on Globex or in today's trading, the megaphone test would come after. This is my giving back for the lessons I learned on the net from caring helpful ppl. If one watched on their charts what ever method one uses, one can see sign posts that can be applied and used. This is how I learned.

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  152. PL:  I know you've gone to bed already for some much needed sleep, just wanted to contribute some comments.  Sorry for the delay...I only post during my lunch.Re: Laptop issues...a number of people have commented on ways to help mitigate your problems, of course, they are well incentivized to keep your uptime mazimized.  :)  Anon20 and sunseekerFL both have some good suggestions for helping with the heat.  You also have the problem of very humid and salty air.  Both of these factors combined with your heavy usage is going to be lethal to many PCs.  Personally, I've had an HP laptop at work for the last three years without issue.  Of course, I'm in upstate NY so we don't have hot, humid salty air.  :)  You may want to consider a laptop designed for harsher environments. 

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  153. looks like another stab at the high setting up.

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  154. Thanks Katzy...always appreciated.

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  155. Should peak at 13:50

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  156. Thanks soulsurferusa. The of indicators everyone has shared is really great for those like me who are definitely less/unskilled. You guys are great.

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  157.  This is crucial right here. Mrkt direction will be determined in next 10 minutes. (if HOD holds).

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  158. If it went up above ES 1310.75 then it may go to 1313.15 then 1315.75. Be careful...

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  159. katz,

    At the top of a megaphone, do the bulls always try to push it up in a protracted fashion? Or is it a short and quick descend by bears coming out in droves? TIA

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  160. OH MY GOD WE DROPPED ONE FULL SPX POINT!  HURRAH!!

    jk.  still short

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  161. whay is with 13;50?  significance?

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  162. No one look, all different. Some 'touches or kisses' pass the TL, some never reach it on both sides up & down. SOme touch, then back down a bit, then go back up and touch again. This one did that. Google words megaphone and stock market. I found a LT McHugh megaphone from 1929 era, very interesting and chart looks like present chart. I am not sayin' we are headed for a crash tho, my thinking now is that any major down will be an EW4 and never pass the 666 level.

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  163. dip buyers desperate to get it...

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  164. doug kass is calling a short term top, hes been really reliable on mkt turn in the past 6 years or so... just fyi

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  165. Katzo,  Did you mention that 1314 is the last one to shut off the short light?

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  166. This is high probability peak for this day of week based on 60 day historical analysis. The premise is that traders have certain rhythms to their activities. Don't know what the underlying reason is, just speculating. But the Flux tool does the data mining for me.

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  167. Good to know - thanks.

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  168. no, don't think 1314 was my number.

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  169. You were right. I saw a bit of a pop in it, the VIX. Sometimes it pops and others it does not.

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  170. This is one cliff hanger .... :0

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  171. NP.
    1319 was one of my numbers.

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  172. Ohh, I remember now that is the top of the megaphone TL.  Don't think it will get there, who knows tho.

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  173. Basis the wave 5 of C, which commenced on 1/13/12....we have just concluded wave iii (up)...imho

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  174. 13:50 to 14:00 is usually an important time frame.

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  175. Thank you, katz.

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  176. VXX is suggesting this new high will not hold, but there are no guarantees.

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  177. Annon20,
    Your thoughts on this rally, please?

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  178.  looks like a bot sell program set right at 1310.75

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  179. hi guys.  Big reversal on VIX  just now..up trend?

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  180. Heavy activity on VXZ around 1:30 PM.

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  181. A toll collecting bot. :)

    It's not getting much - judging by the volume. Hopefully, it'll start moving down the price ladder. 

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  182. Yes, New York time.

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  183. im from the future.  it's moonsday here.

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  184. are you talking about the S&P?  you buy calls or trade the ETF long?

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  185. they always win.....

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  186. time to put your stops in, slide them down in context w/mrkt action....

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  187. anyone trade the 2 X Vix  etn  ' TVIX'??  i'm back in for a position.  what a head n shoulders!

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  188. Do you do trailing stops?

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