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Friday, February 24, 2012

SPX, Oil, Gold, Silver, US Dollar, NDX: Snapshots Across Markets

Yesterday both the preferred count and alternate counts anticipated a rally, which the market provided.  It ended up closing dead center in the target zone for the alternate count, which kept it from being eliminated.  The preferred count continues to anticipate some further upside, but both counts remain plausible. 

Since there's not much to add to the S&P 500 forecast of the past few weeks, I've decided to include a few quick snapshots of some other markets.  First, a quick update on the SPX charts.  The preferred count (below) continues to anticipate marginally higher prices, followed by a reversal from the wave 5 target zone.  My current expectation is for at least a 4-7% correction to ensue from this zone, but until the up-trend actually breaks, I wouldn't advise front-running this particular rally -- unless you're a nimble trader.


Next, a close up of the alternate count, which hit the target zone dead-on.  Trade above the 1367 highs would take this count off the table.


Moving on, below is a chart for silver. I've only published one article about silver in the past year: back on November 21 -- when silver was above 30 -- I predicted silver would move down to 25-27 to complete Primary Wave 4, and then reverse higher.  This is exactly what happened, which lends credence to this count.  This count anticipates that silver is now in its fifth wave up at Primary degree, and will eventually go on to new all-time highs.


Silver appears to be in the process of completing a perfect five-wave impulse move off the lows (blue wave 1), which suggests it's due for a correction soon, as illustrated by the blue "2".  Further, it's approaching two resistance lines.

Gold may be in a similar position, though I find gold's wave count difficult to pin down at the moment.  I would be more inclined to trade the trendlines on gold right now. Gold chart below.


Oil shows a much different pattern over the very long term, and its advance since 2009 does not appear nearly as constructive as either gold or silver.  It does, however, present a similar inverted head and shoulders pattern for the intermediate term. 

However, oil is massively overbought -- and as the RSI highlights show, similar RSI levels in the past have often preceded sizable corrections in oil.



These three commodity markets bring us, inevitably, to the dollar.  The dollar has been toying around with a key breakout level for over a month, and my expectation is that it's likely to be forming a base here.  Based on the Elliott Wave patterns, I believe the next meaningful move in the dollar will be up into the 85-87 zone.  This would seem to be consistent with the idea that oil and silver are due for corrections (gold's chart is more ambiguous).

Now, these expectations are based on Elliott Wave analysis.  The fact is, oil and gold have both broken out to the upside (silver has not), and the dollar is below an important support level -- so my expectations are running in direct opposition to the traditional technical patterns in these markets.  Despite my Elliott Wave expectations, these levels and patterns which contradict it should not be ignored.  It would be wise to wait and see how the market responds to these levels -- for example, going long the dollar while it's still beneath a key support level is front-running. 

In other words, a little patience may be in order.  The dollar closed right between two nice trade triggers, so one could play it either way, depending on how it breaks.  Dollar chart below.

The last chart is a short-term Nasdaq 100 (NDX) chart.  The NDX is forming a very clean ascending triangle pattern.  Ascending triangles are usually bullish, though not always.  A break out would suggest 50 points in the direction of the break.


In conclusion, there appear to be many good trade opportunities across various markets right now.  Regarding the SPX: we've been anticipating it would trade up into this zone since February 8, and as I've mentioned before, this is an excellent zone for a reversal.  However, this has been a very resilient trend, and most technicians will agree that this market has not been behaving in its "usual" way... so it's advisable not to get too anxious to buck this particular trend.  If this zone doesn't slow it down, it's likely headed into the 1400's next.  Trade safe.

The original article, and many more, can be found at http://PretzelCharts.blogspot.com

259 comments:

  1. Good morning.  Hopefully, it's enough charts for everyone...  ;)

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  2. That was fun to read PL...It was like reading the "Special Edition"...Thanks

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  3. Question...On the NDX...did you determine the 50 pt upside by the price difference an the start of the triangle? Or, is that just a coincidence.

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  4. Yes, you measure the widest part of the triangle for the target from breakout.

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  5. :) 

    If people like it, I'll do more like this. 

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  6. Thanks...I dun lerned sump'm.

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  7. It added more flavors at the ice cream stand. It was like getting the 5-scoop bowl instead of just a vanilla cone. :)

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  8. Great stuff.

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  9. I enjoyed
    studying the various charts provided as they broaden my view of the market and
    the interrelationships of the various commodities.  Having more charts to compare provides greater
    depth of the analysis and understanding of the market direction (or lack
    thereof).  Keep up the great work; you
    are a diamond in the vast sea of internet nonsense.

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  10. PL, thanks for the analyses of Silver and Gold.  Very helpful to me.   Anyway, if Silver completes the corrective wave 2 and then bounce back up, doesn't it then have a reverse H&S as well, like Gold?  So in away, it's similar to Gold, just lagging Gold a bit.

    Another question--we know that QEs are bullish for Gold/Silver.  However,  ECB's QE (LTRO) may cause debasement of the Euro against the Dollar, and so could it have any negative impact on Gold/Silver instead?   After the December LTRO,  Gold/Silver did go up along with the equity market initially, but they dropped quite a bit the following week while stocks continued to rise.  Alternatively,  It was also possible that the December lows in Gold/Silver were caused by the MF Global liquidation of metals and so LTRO didn't help at that time, and so they're catching up with the market now.  What do you think?

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  11. 2xlow or 180 degrees;1380 and 1420 were on the table a month ago from alternative wisemen who were not spoonfeeding:(

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  12. First question: yes.

    2nd question:  all of that sounds reasonable to me, and I'm too tired at this point to get farther than that thought.  :)

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  13. Here is what I based my short ES trade on, this and a contrarian indicator timely post. Charts come first tho. Permabulls show up at the top of swings didactically screaming I was right, we are goin' higher, bears show at the bottom saying it is the end of the world. Short when permabulls appear, go long when the opposite. But I think this megaphone is sign of a IT or LT conclusion, this and 3P&DH on long term charts, this stab higher that fails to make a higher high. Megaphones basically shake both sides out, both sides loose, timing has to be exact and positions held only short term. 

    This five min. chart should be explicit as to what to look for, set EW5 tgt (I found the mathematical ideal for EW5 of 3 was 1369), watch for drop into EW1, then the 2 (lower high is key), and then the EW3 drop to verify trade. Go in on the EW2 retrace, pointed out on the chart. Buying ST tops at the exact top is very risky, the can just continue, the minor EW5s are done when they are done, few signs up there, use EWT to position. Slightly longer term (out today/tomorrow) there could be one last run (EW5 of 5) to 1379 ES, I do not think so at this point because this has absolutely no strength as I measure it but we have to keep this option open. My thinking is that every other day is the opposite; one day down, the next up. This day down. Who knows tho, the permabulls think they know. When action gets weird like this go looking for a megaphone, it is on the 60 ES.http://www.screencast.com/users/katzo7/folders/Jing/media/b3d053be-78f5-45b3-a0f7-08b8edcd9241

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  14. "you
    are a diamond in the vast sea of internet nonsense." love it, +100

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  15. katzo, what is your very next ES downside target for this short position? Thanks!

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  16. cannot go much above 1365.75
    TI still 60-62

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  17. Covered my ES short @ 1365 for +1.5.  Can't shake the feeling that I'm pushing my luck w/ that trade.  :/

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  18. Katzo, thanks for explaining your "fuzzy logic" .. it's like, do we bomb them now, or wait a bit. :-)

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  19. You bet - I read it straight through, understood it and liked it. $-)

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  20. Tim Cook, AAPL's CEO, said he would not buy Greece. Whew! :)

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  21. Yes, PL. I haven't put any study into gold, silver, oil, us dollar, etc. It is good to get your view. Would help to learn it.

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  22. Thanks Katzo...excellent illustration. :)

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  23. I was sure they would and rename it Iisland

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  24. Silver to new all-time highs?  What's next a constructive view on the homebuilders, especially TOL?   I suspect a straight-jacket is being applied on a farm in South America somewhere as I type this...And in any event a month from now, all this will be ALL HIS IDEA!

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  25. I held ontill 1364.25, it usually declines from 0900-0930 EST. katzo will probably continue down much lower!

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  26.  ROFLMAO...we may never know ...but I'm sure we'll read about him in the papers.

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  27. Will sky high oil price fuel the market upwards? That's the question.

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  28. A couple of days ago, you thought $4 gas will kill the S&P. So which is it? :-)

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  29.  Heard from the pro's - QE3.

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  30. Most excellent work PL - love it when you talk PM's!   "You had me at Silver, you had me at Silver"

    Since you have opened the door for one of those "gold lunatics" to comment, here's a rather amateurish DJIA/Gold excel chart complete with predictions - certainly take that FWIW ;)

    Feel free to shred it up guys and gals

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  31. The Slog has an update to the engineered Greek default.  Today's focus is on how the Fed is providing dollars to European banks:

    http://hat4uk.wordpress.com/2012/02/24/greek-debt-exclusive-default-planners-falling-out-over-firewall-sources/

    My favorite line from the article:

    "Commerzbank AG Chief Executive Martin Blessing yesterday said of the
    Brussels deal, “The participation in the haircut is as voluntary as a
    confession during the Spanish Inquisition”."

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  32. NDX took out its trigger.  i'm long a little QLD here.   To sync up with other forecasts, it may correct a bit before heading higher, but the way this market's been behaving, if the euro banks get 1T Euros next Wednesday, it may just shoot the moon.

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  33. I saw some headline about 'No QE3 unless economy deteriorates' which to me means they expect the economy to deteriorate and then they will pull out QE3.

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  34. Good morning PL,
    Trust you are feeling better now?
    How about an ending diagonal in the NAS100?
    Seems to meet the rules and guidelines?
    Kind regards,
    UKDNY

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  35. Alt among other dead counts!

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  36. are we knocking on heaven's door?

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  37. somewhat premature.....

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  38. usual bullish bounce between 9:30 and 10 occurred. Back in short at 65 ES after getting out in 63 area to avoid this bullish crap. I expect today to be bearish from this point on to balance yesterday

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  39. Exactly on the same number.....where is Oliver Stone?

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  40. Question for the board: 

    When is the expected announcement/news release time (on February 29th) regarding the size and scope of LTRO #2?

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  41. I agree with you, UKDNY.  I think it is.

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  42. need to break 63 but good.

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  43. so es levels, break 65 and we go up, break 62 and down

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  44. "10 am bullishness crap" ?

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  45. I believe today the SPX has closed 45 trading days above the 20 moving average. If I remember correct, the SPX only had one other trend this strong since the year 2000. Any thoughts?

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  46. mrkt in general always or usually seems to rally between 9:30 and 10 am.

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  47. PL, I have one request for you, consider pitting your skills against Soybean Futures every now and then.  

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  48.  That is the one trillion euro question. :)

    It depends on how many takers and how much do they need. More importantly, what do they still have left as collateral. The ECB already said that they'll take the shirts on their back, the wives and children.

    Even mother-in-laws .... :)

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  49. you called that break upwards but there does not seem to be much conviction to it. I am usually wrong though.

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  50. i bet if one just bought the opening, or es pre-bell and held til 10 am i wonder if it would average out to a good gain i am gonna study that next week

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  51. VIX and TVIX still above zero   :)          as Charlie would say.....  "WINNING...!!

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  52. I can appreciate that...good old Charlie :)

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  53.  i think TVIX is up solely because of the premium as no new shares are issued. VIX is actually down though

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  54. ive got a measured move on es to 67.25.......5 and 6am tops at 67.75

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  55. From the 1367.76 high at 10:09 AM I count five down, three up to A, three down to B and we just finished 5 up to C. Inconcievable

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  56. My guess is that the same amount as LTRO#1 (500 B Euro) is already expected and priced into the market.  Anything above that will give the market a nice pop.

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  57.  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OHVjs4aobqs

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  58. for my own sake hope things finally correct and dont go higher.....market top signal.....hahaha

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  59. Exactly what I was thinking....Love that movie. Ever watch "Things you do in Denver when your dead"?

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  60.  Buckwheat....I have that on VHS.

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  61. I stand corrected.....

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  62. PL, great post! You keep surprising me with your analysis. they're worth gold (or silver or oil!?). The preferred count is in play now, and if i understand correctly we are no in wave v of (v) of V1? Unbelievable these fractals and unbelievable beautiful. And to all out there thinking PL is a perma-bear: he ain't. sick and tired of hearing that. this is objective EWT and TA as it can be! Great work PL!

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  63. you killed my father prepare to die six fingered man.

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  64. I can see you standing there in your suit of armor...all sparkly. Good for you!

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  65. 1:30 to 2 pm my timing bands say a correction will start, dunno for sure tho

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  66. Appears we have similar taste in movies. Where are you from jbg1911 (without giving out too much info)?

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  67. Flux timing study says there is some chance of that, in that general timeframe.

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  68. Monster volume of call options on oil - all the way to 130. Yikes.

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  69. u think sign of a top?

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  70. After reading the unbelievable (to me) but not entirely implausible description of an engineered Greek default, I wanted to know more about the timeline of coming events related to the second bailout.  The next few weeks should be 'fun' :)

    Feb  24-26 --Finance ministers from the Group of 20 nations meet in Mexico City and will discuss additional financial assistance from the International Monetary Fund.

    Feb. 24 --Greece may issue formal debt-swap invitation to bondholders. 

    Feb. 25 --Greek government may submit bank recapitalization provision to parliament. 

    Feb. 27 --Germany's Bundestag in Berlin votes to approve the Greek bailout package at around 6 p.m. (12 p.m. EST). The package is likely to pass given support of opposition Social Democrat and Green parties. 

    Feb. 28 --Greek parliament votes on implementation law on austerity measures. Vote in Athens may take place at midnight (5 p.m.EST).--ECB in Frankfurt calls for bids on unlimited offerings of three-year and three-month funds at 3:30 p.m. local time (9:30 a.m. EST). 

    Feb. 29 --Greek parliament in Athens will vote on health and social security measures. 
    --Finland's parliament in Helsinki votes on the second Greek rescue program at around 2 p.m. (7 a.m. EST) with the governing coalition expected to approve. 
    --Greek unions hold three-hour work stoppage from noon (5 a.m. EST). 
    Demonstration at European Commission offices in Athens at 1:30 p.m. (6:30 a.m. EST), rally at Syntagma Square at 6 p.m. (11 a.m. EST). 
    --ECB allots its second round of three-year liquidity to European banks. Results expected in Frankfurt at 11:15 a.m. (5:15 a.m. EST). Economists and traders expect banks to tap the ECB for 470 billion euros, according to the median of 28 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey. That's down from 489 billion euros at the last auction on Dec. 21. The ECB will announce the results of the three-month tender at the same time. 
    March 1: 
    --The Dutch parliament in the Hague will have voted on the Greek bailout package by this date, according to Finance Minister Jan Kees de Jager. 

    March 1-2 
    --European Union leaders' summit in Brussels. Agenda will include increasing their anti-crisis firewall, including possible concurrent operation of the temporary European Financial Stability Facility and the permanent European Stability Mechanism. 

    March 8 
    --ECB President Mario Draghi to hold press conference after monthly interest rate meeting of the Governing Council. Rate decision in Frankfurt at 1:45 p.m. (7:45 a.m. EST), briefing starts 2:30 p.m. (8:30 a.m. EST). 

    March 12 
    --Greek private creditors' swap transactions will take place for bonds currently governed by Greek law. Those covered by foreign laws will be exchanged in early April, Finance Minister Venizelos said Feb. 22. 

    March 12-13 --EU finance ministers meet in Brussels. 

    March 12-16 --IMF board scheduled to discuss Greece. 
    March 20 --Greece is scheduled to pay off 14.5 billion euros of maturing debt. Completion of debt swap will cover the payment. 

    March 30 --Spain's Cabinet may approve 2012 budget. 

    April --Greek national elections possible in late April or May. 

    April 20-22 --The IMF holds its Spring meeting in Washington. G-20 finance ministers to meet as well. 

    Read more: http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/g/a/2012/02/24/bloomberg_articlesLZUWEG0UQVI901-LZWGQ.DTL#ixzz1nJzRGqGB

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  71.  Yeah, I really liked the silver, dollar and gold charts. As important as they all are, it's nice to get a read on the potential counts.

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  72.  When that happens, energy and material will drag SPX along, kicking and screaming, upwards.

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  73. Katz07........keep us informed bout the after lunch sell off if ya can............would be cool to c the weeks gains go away in the last 2-3 hours on a friday.....last friday i sadi a sell off would be a big topic of conversation on weekend......maybe i was just a week off?

    thanks again

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  74. Just outside of lovely Reading, PA ...46, also actively seeking market top. Loves long walks in volatility, collects red candles. Must love inverse ETFs and bull fighting. :)

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  75. anyone know if Tom Demark has updated his stuff lately....last i knew if was 2 or so weeks ago..thx

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  76.  I think he's calling for a 3-5% correction.

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  77. You're a riot.....glad to know ya! "Stay Frosty"

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  78. Hokey Smokes! El Zorro on the GLD chart.

    ;-)

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  79. there goes AAPL, 521+

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  80. What happened afterwards?

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  81. Just discovered TMZ footage of Katzo dealing with a Perma-Bidder...

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xECx-42Wlho

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  82. My best guess is that we slowly rally right into the big Wednesday ECB overnight announcement, and then sell the news regardless of whatever they say.  This also seems to agree with Pretzel's thinking that we have just a little more to go.  If I had to take a blind stab, shorting the euro would be my favorite way to play this move, as I really feel it should move lower whichever way they go with this (beat or miss expectations of size amount).

    Thoughts from others?

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  83. There has been discussion about whether the LTRO will be too big and signal weakness, or too small and not have substantial effect. The spin machines are gonna be on turbo though, that is certain.

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  84. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NMBZMane0Ts&feature=related

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  85. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NMBZMane0Ts&feature=related 

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  86. "Marvin's got a big brain." Time to call Mr. Wolf.

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  87. Dang. Looks like a classic short setup on the 5 minute SPX. Pop up, smack down and then leisurely drift upward on declining volume. Sure looks like it's about to roll right over... but those have been failing pretty regularly lately on a swing trading time frame and some of us have day jobs.

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  88. What a cluster...I wish I had the catering contract.

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  89. nice call, we will see, i get same

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  90. "What does Marcellus Wallace look like"? "WHAT !" "Say what again, I dare ya. . . " 'WHAT !"

    Very soon I am gunna short this m-f-er without abandon. . . . (I think) there is gunna be a very fine line between this thing breakin' down, and a run higher, hope I can pick it out

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  91. Feb 21st on BB:
    http://www.bloomberg.com/video/86842200/

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  92. Regardless of the amount, they will spin it however they chose... to take it down or take it higher (the market).

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  93. lmao .. My exact mental picture of Katzo ..... after a good meal of wonton (when market is too much chop chop).

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  94. I agree with you and think that we will rally right up to the announcement, then... we either get an exhaustion gap up or a gap down.  Either way, there should be some type of correction beginning within 0 to 3 days after the announcement. 

    The million dollar question is how high will markets go before the correction begins?

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  95. The equity market again seems to be breaking its correlation with Eur.  At year-end/early Jan, when Eur was declining, US equities were heading higher.  Last few days, Eur has been strongly higher but US equities haven't followed.  Eur definitely looks overdone, especially on longer term chart.  I just shorted 1 E7h12 at 1.3481.  I expect it may test 1.35 into Wednesday and if it does, I'll likely short more.  But this correction in Eur looks almost over.

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  96. RUT weekly chart looks like a bull flag setup.

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  97. nice little drop.....at vwap now.......suooprting for the moment.......globex vwap........breaks below it??  ...hopefully yes

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  98. Katzo, great call. es is dropping right on your time call. I am starting to think you have a crystal ball in front of you..:)

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  99. on my 5min es there is clear left shoulder and a head now......neckline around 1363

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  100. Discipline......Ain't this MFr a biotch.

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  101. Interesting point of view...
    http://elliottwavepredictions.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/SPX-90m-2-17-12.png

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  102. can I get an English translation of that?

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  103. thnx, no, just hard work. . . 

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  104. "What does Marcellus Wallace look like"?

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  105. todays high so far is 1368.92.....ur # is 1368.73..........

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  106. He don't look like no beotch...Poor Brad.

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  107. close enough for me.....0.19 differential based on 1368 points. 

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  108.  That returns us to my question of what exactly the word "shortest" means when they say wave 3 can't be the shortest. If you just laid a ruler on that plot and measured the overall length of the waves then wave 3 in that count is obviously a lot longer than wave 1. If price is the only measure then it's a lot shorter. Which is right?

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  109. throw a pair of ABCs in that first part moving the starting point of the EW1 up. But what I do not like is that the high macd reading is under the 1, have never seen this, always under the 3. . . go to the 60 or the 120

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  110. Thank you, Whoa_Nellie.

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  111. it should speed up to the downside soon and has to to keep me in the trade longer. there can be no more up

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  112. I think "overall length of waves" suggests you are referring to TIME. Price is the only measure...time has no "VALUE"

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  113. Sure you have...fifth waves typically show significant divergence to the third wave. This is a C wave top so it should show significant divergence.

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  114. What will it take for BRCM to crack already?  target 34.75

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  115. A breakdown of the market would help...I guess.

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  116. Take a look at the 9 day chart on CCK starting from Nov 2002 thru Jan 2006. Almost an exact replica of the S&P 500. Oh my!

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  117. Wow! VXX is strapped on a rocket. Probably due to oil hitting 110+/-.

    Also heard from the grapevine that the Pentagon is buying oil like there is no tomorrow. The saber will soon be rattling? :)

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  118. done for the day, think crap from here on out, fall to continue on Monday.

    all winners zecpt one scratch.

    http://screencast.com/t/NAxS91oC4s

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dPZQSWZr6rY&feature=fvsr

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  119. Finally on the VXX - they had been getting pummeled recently

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  120. wow, just got back and see VIX exploded to the upside, even when spx is flatish. The guy who bought 1M shares TVIX at 16.21 should be happy now, but I doubt he/she/it will be taking profit just yet....TVIX's premium is finally compressing as compared to UVXY...

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  121. This doesn't seem to fit with Pretzel's preferred count of an ending diagonal, but if today's decline stays above 1360.75 ES and goes on to make a new high, it would be five waves up. Wave 5 would equal wave 1 at 1371.5 ES, exactly at the head and shoulders target indicated by the blue bar...

    http://screencast.com/t/Leb1w46nMWGF 

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  122. watch for AAPL/GOOG crossover

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  123.  Yep. That's what that was all right. Would have been sweet if I was set up to day trade futures from my office.

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  124. indeed.  not sure if it was a guy or Credit Suiesse buying back shares... this after hour purchases in 1,000,000 chunks has me scratching my head..  and that 880,000 at 18.

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  125. VIX option update..  Contango is back..  anyone have a $1,000,000 i can borrow for a couple of weeks??   this is war..

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y6huv7ihW9c&feature=plcp&context=C309311bUDOEgsToPDskJ5N41U4D0i_zo85AWy0h1a

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  126. If anybody's interested, I've spotted an anomaly between the NYSE and the number of 'new 52 week highs' generated within.  As some of you may know, the number of new 52 week highs is one of the components of the Hindenburg Omen which I have also been covering for 28 months straight.  I only update the HO posts when something starts brewing.  At this moment the HO is quiet but is noting that the number of new 52 week highs is very low considering the 'apparent' strength of this rally.   If anybody's interested, just clicking my name will take you directly to a short piece I've just published on what's happening with the 'new 52 week highs' situation.

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  127. shorts will cover at some point..  hopefully not at    $ .0001 .   will never know their plan till it happens..  shady.  yet the 'Mafia' made money didn't they?  i'm gonna order a pizza n meatballs now

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  128. What happens when VIX is in contango? I suppose it is back for TVIX and UVXY? 

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  129. I know, me too.I wonder if the guy who bought at 18 has sold yet??? So far we haven't seen the usual Friday sell off in volatility. They usually drop off the cliff on Friday...hopefully I am not jinxing it, with 10 minutes to go..as I type it is actually going up...

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  130. Looks like three waves down and in the midst of four right now. Fifth wave down is brewing.

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  131. someone said " . . . vix should hit under 16 to 15.5 area" VIX up 4% today, the calls continue

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  132. I wonder if we'll gap open to the downside on Monday, finish off wave five down (1) and then rally back up to put in wave (2) before having the rug pulled out from under the longs. See ya Monday......stay well.

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  133. quite a reversal for VIX, even though there os not much firework in the market. Maybe the real firework is coming Monday.

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  134. Some indicators are just incredibly accurate. Have a great weekend Katzo...and put in a good word for me with Marcellus....and let him know Zed's dead.

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  135. Notice that the premium on TVIX is compressing, that is healthy. TVIX up 4 % when UVXY up almost 7%. They were at the same % briefly and started to diverge later in the day. What do you think? The volume on TVIX is a lot less while UVXY is making new record, maybe it will soon stop creating new shares too?? :O

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  136. you see that ! unbelievable.
    Will see Marcellus at a bar mitzvah tomorrow. lol

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  137. ES/5

    http://www.screencast.com/users/katzo7/folders/Jing/media/4e29d44a-171c-4c46-b3c9-800d36e55b1d

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  138. Maybe it's oil, maybe it's the EU/Greece calendar listed down below...

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  139. Good afternoon Bob_E,
    I make his wave 3 now the shortest after today's action.
    SPX  isn't done yet so wv3 will be unarguably the shortest come next week.
    And there are many other impossible labels which make the chart unhelpful.
    To say the least.
    Kind regards,
    UKDNY
     

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  140. Good afternoon Ray_1,
    Thank you for taking a look; it's looking good so far.
    If this really is an ending diagonal then I should think we have a day or two to wait whilst it pfaffs around a bit and SPX completes it's high before they set off downwards in a big hurry. Now won't THAT be a welcome change! :)
    Monday and tuesday are going to be so very interesting.
    Kind regards,
    UKDNY

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  141. Got an email update with a Google Trend overlayed on a chart - I believe AR had recommended the free update. But anyway I never even knew Google provided such info to the public in such a nice chart - and please forgive me if any of you have heard of it, cause I lag quite a bit in the info age cycle. It's mostly lagging info, but nonetheless I found it to be pretty cool, and the even offer the data files:

    http://www.google.com/trends/ 

    After discovering it, I wasted quite a bit of time plugging in all sorts of crap to check . One I found interesting is the trend for a"coupon" search and after wasting more time trying to annotate it, I figured what the hell and post it here - PL said we could post stupid shit ! Don't know what it means but see attached:

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  142. If I remember correctly, PL's  count suggests that we'll have about 4% (or more) pullback, and then another leg up to over 1400.  Given that, I don't think the market will sell off after ECB LTRO#2.  Most likely, the pullback can happen on Monday and/or Tuesday, and then rise on LTRO#2.

    There is an FOMC meeting on 3/13...Maybe the real sell off will come after 3/13.  I don't think the Fed will announce any new QE until Operation Twist is over at end of June. 

    We'll see.

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  143. Estimates from 28 economists average 470B euros.  The release time is 5:15AM on February 29th.

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  144. lol... They will take anything.  Even promises of collateral to be delivered at a future date...  ; )

    The actual release time for the results of the auction is at 5:15 AM on February 29th.

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  145. indeed oil is the play for last week. stocks need to get thru 1370 on big volume. more times we test it the weaker it should become. oil is dead. Not

    http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2012/2/24/the-1000-day-club.html

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  146. for those of us, who like crisp straight lines: here's a linear trend analysis of the SPX since dec 20, 2011. I plotted the high and lows of each week and the mid-value of those weeks. The R-square of the weekly mid-values trend line is 0.97. That's almost exactly 1!!!!!, which means a perfect straight line!! Pretty obvious this ain't a normal market, as nothing in the (natural) world is so linear except when man-controlled. So much for our free market (or is it now a flea market, where we are the fleas in the CB's fur???). Note that the last two weeks are starting to deviate more and more from the trend line (e.g. SPX is moving more sideways than with the up trend), as is witnessed from this weeks high being on the trendline and not above as with previous weeks. That would suggest topping, but if the trend continues SPX will be at 1400 early march...

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  147. oil still looking strong with the breakout, inverted bat wings, and goldie cross. should go parabolic

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  148. great chart! i was counting my self and couldn't figure if we'd already experienced wave v or were still in wave 4 down.  

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  149. Bob, pretzel has your pink wave 1 and 2, where you have your first green wave 1 and 2. I used to have it like yours too, but then switched to pretzel's count as that makes much more sense. Then your green wave 3 and wave 4 of wave 1 become wave i and ii of wave 3. This recount makes also more sense given that I think wave (v) of v of V is still to come: 
    http://screencast.com/t/Leb1w46nMWGF (thanks to spudthorpe!)

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  150. Do you think Berankenstein told his minion in charge of the PPT to just make a straight line up at a specified angle and he would get a bonus from Jamie.

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  151. Good evening SSUSA,
    Great chart, must have been a lot of work.
    Agree that trends tend to end on the midline of the trend as you say so the end is near.
    FWIW my own view is we are a bit closer to the end than March.
    I would say just a couple of days as I think we are in the 4th wave of an ending diagonal in both INDU and SPX with the diagonal completed already in NAS100.
    We shall see of course; markets make fools of us all at times :) but I've posted to PL for his expert critique so feel free to comment, I find the views of others very helpful.
    Kind regards,
    UKDNY

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  152. katzo, where to next for the ES? (every time I reply to you, I want to type "katsu", big fan of Japanese food!)

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  153. Good evening PL,
    If you have the time would you critique these 2 charts, over a coffee sometime?
    I suggest ending diagonals are forming, at least - on these charts :)
    Very grateful, and have a great weekend.
    Kind regards,
    UKDNY

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  154. Good evening Bob_E,
    so you reckon we are now in a down trend, wave 1?
    If you posted a chart with your labels that would be very helpful to us, the learners :)
    Kind regards,
    UKDNY

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  155. think down on Monday, need to break that damn 61 gap line first for good. but 1356 is key minus a point or two, if we stall there could be one more last run up to new high (megaphone top TL). lookin' at ES/120 now, at the past recent top there are these candles: an inverted hammer, a gravestone doji, a spinning top, another spinning top, a doji (represents the exact top), a spinning top, another doji. That is seven various candles representing 14 hours of decision. Can you chart ES?

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  156. AAPL up 6 points or 1.17%

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  157. Good evening again SSUSA,
    do you have a link to that PL post please, I haven't seen it nor can I find it. Any idea of the time it was posted?
    Very grateful,
    Kind regards,
    UKDNY

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  158. thanks! actually wasn't that much work. Just took the high and low values for each weekly candlestick, entered it in excel, then calculated the average of those two for each week and voila. Data set complete. Then I simply made a scatter plot in excel with the 3 data sets and drew a trend line through the mid (average value). An r-square of one is scary IMHO as it shows 100% market manipulation, or as brian hut has pointed out many times: BOT's. I don't see how humans are capable of producing such a straight line over weeks on end. Scary.

    If you'd do this for the NDX the divergence for the last 3 weeks is even clearer! Somehow I lost that plot... frikin AAPL computer, and no, not every body loves siri...

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  159. kbg, thanks for the nice donation! 

    And thank you for your ongoing support -- you were one of my earliest donors, and your loyalty and continued support are greatly appreciated.  :)

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  160. lmao -- but you forgot "fascinated by small, shiny objects."  :D

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  161. lmao, he actually stopped by to post at Minyanville a while back to rant about how the Dow 2011 intraday high was actually 12944 (wrong), not 12876 (right) -- so the Dow hadn't actually KO'd its count and I was wrong.  Somehow the intraday high of 12876 was a number I had "stolen" from him, so in his mind he had "fooled" me -- as if intraday highs were some secret or something -- and the fact that I was watching it to begin with was (of course) entirely his idea.  Nevermind that one can see that equivalent KO (for SPX) on the very first chart I ever created for this site -- clearly I couldn't have been watching it because it's one of the most rudimentary rules of EWT (wave 2 can't exceed the start of wave 1) -- no, that wouldn't make any sense at all. 

    Anyway, it was genuinely amusing because he had his numbers wrong -- and mine were correct.  I told him that I hoped that his incorrect numbers *finally* proved to him that my past analysis had nothing at all to do with him.  I'm sure it didn't phase him, though.  The fact that my analysis had nothing to do with him was probably all his idea too.  :D   

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  162. All I can say is: TGIF.  I'm gonna take my family to dinner now and see if they remember my name.  :)

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  163. here's an interesting potential at play across markets right now. Last Thursday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDU) came within 35 points of invalidating its entire Minor Wave (2) count. The current structure on the INDU appears slightly different than the SPX. While the SPX looks like a three-wave decline, the INDU may have formed a five-wave decline. The INDU also pierced intermediate support, though rallied back above it. Is it possible that the INDU has topped, while the SPX could still make another run, slightly above the 1,333 high? Today's action should help answer this question.sell structured settlement  

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  164. enjoy dinner! i just came back from the movies and a dinner with my GF. When we left for dinner, I pointed out to her that gasoline prices at our local gas station had gone up with 5cents this morning; from $4.19 to $4.24. When we passed it on our way home regular was now $4.33. Just 14cents in less than a day. Luckily my "wealth" has gone up in a straight line with an r-square of 1 since Dec 20, so I should be able to pay for this 3.3% of inflation per day! Shoot, I just checked, the DOW gained 0% today and the SPX 0.17%... maybe BEUrnankEU miscalculated when he was cranking up the printing press??? 

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  165. Edit:  I just realized I wrote kbg when I meant "KB03" -- lmao.  They rhyme, and apparently that was good enough for my brain.  :D

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  166. JFR, I will try to take a look this weekend at Soybean futures... just for you.  :)

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  167. LMAO -- he stopped by at Minyanville to bitch at me today.  Apparently he still reads every comment in the comments section and this one below must have made him angry.  He continues to read my work and everyone's comments because we're all such idiots. 

    Makes sense to me -- I spend a lot of my precious time reading the work of people whom I think are idiots.  He even called katzo a "tapeworm."  I flagged his post as "inappropriate."  :D

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  168. JFR -- soybeans, just for you.  :)

    Soybeans broke out from a nice base earlier this month, and are currently just below a key resistance level.  If they break that, there is another minor resistance level about 20 points up.  If *that* resistance doesn't contain, then it looks like there's an air pocket which will probably not offer much resistance, and which could be good for a quick pop into the 1400's.  See chart.

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  169. You really are a good dude for doing that PL :)
    Katzo was absolutely on target when he EW'd my body weight. I am totally 5th waving it up. EW has been validated. :)

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  170. rut row, not good. we do not want any fat fingers causing another mrkt flash crash. wait, grab the Twinkies !

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  171. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zSAJ0l4OBHM&feature=related

    DISCLOSURE: not insinuating you're a horse PL

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  172. Three important indicator indexes. Note the $SPX doji up against the GANN line and the retest yesterday, make or break time. Also, $SPX has dropped into the lower half of regression trend channel. Divergence in $TRAN vs. $SPX, slight divergence in $RUT too, a function of high oil price or a sign of something to come? UUP dead in the water. 

    http://www.screencast.com/users/katzo7/folders/Jing/media/2c487209-23bc-4e27-a672-b1d90f419d5a

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  173. I agree.  I think we may have gap down on Monday also to finish off wave (1) of 3 down on SPX ES.  Although the cash SPX broke up the previous high (1367.76), the SPX ES didn't and I still think the top is in for SPX ES (Usually, different index may reach the top at different time.)  The SPX ES is forming a leading diagonal down with completed wave 2 bounce and started wave 3 down last Friday.  I am sorry I didn't post a chart this time.

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  174. UUP ~ time clusters say this one might bottom between 4 to 8 am Monday morning. dunno either the price or time may be right, hard to get both. . . 

    http://www.screencast.com/users/katzo7/folders/Jing/media/82888808-754c-4477-a79b-22aef8d6a845

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  175. Agree that the dollar is close to a bottom, though it may take a bit longer to completely base.


    http://screencast.com/t/o2VhV36hG2

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  176. so who wants to buy 3X  leveraged etf.  all these down 25 to 50% in less than a year.....tza Small Cap Bear 3X - , tna  Small Cap Bull 3X - Triple-Leveraged ETF . also we have faz  Financial Bear 3X - Triple-Leveraged ETF, and fas  Financial Bull 3X - Triple-Leveraged ETF .

    it doesnt matter if YOU bought bear or bull etf. all to take yo money. gluck with that. buy it and forgetaboutit. and forget your money too

    http://www.google.com/finance?chdnp=1&chdd=1&chds=1&chdv=1&chvs=maximized&chdeh=0&chfdeh=0&chdet=1330189531148&chddm=79065&chls=IntervalBasedLine&cmpto=NYSEARCA:FAZ;NYSEARCA:TZA;NYSEARCA:TNA&cmptdms=0;0;0&q=NYSEARCA:FAS&&fct=big#

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  177. nice chart katzo! i wanted to show some linear regressions for the DOW, NDX, COMPQ, UTIL and TRAN as well to show the divergence and their implications. But yours sums it up kinda nicely. May still post them though for entertainment purposes.

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  178. AAPL ~ while there may be a pull back soon the sheer power of this up move is amazing and far from over. Avoid listening to amateur analysis on this one.

    http://www.screencast.com/users/katzo7/folders/Jing/media/a1328d06-9a82-4dee-88aa-325b80298d83

    TVIX ~ waking up?

    http://www.screencast.com/users/katzo7/folders/Jing/media/229082a4-bc3e-46a9-8c5f-f46d6472174a

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  179. Be careful what is presented and what you believe as fact, lots of fun and games on the internet. Ppl do not necessarily present a complete picture, for what reason I do not know. ARock just exposed info that was not factual. Timing is everything in this business, it is when you position (EWaves anyone?) that determine whether it will be a win or a loss. 

    http://www.screencast.com/users/katzo7/folders/Jing/media/072586d3-b3e1-4246-8be6-d27054883d92

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  180. More on the linearity of several of the major indices. These are weekly mid-values (highest weekly value + lowest weekly value divided by 2) plotted for the week ending date (Fridays). Except for the DJT, all indices have a rounded r-square of 1... Note that for scaling purposes the DJI value is divided by 4 and the DJT by 2 (this doesn't affect linearity or slope). All though this plot doesn't show it as well, all indices (especially the TECHies) are starting to diverge from the linear trend, with the last 2 to 3 weeks showing lower slopes and highs that start to creep below the trend line. This seems to coincide with the fact that the markets are forming the end of wave 5!?

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