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Tuesday, February 14, 2012

SPX Update: Why this Rally is One for the History Books

This is a historic rally, and it's accomplished something the market hasn't accomplished very often -- but I'll return to that later.  Monday the market performed as anticipated by the preferred count shown on Thursday and Friday -- strongly reversing back to the upside out of the wave 4 target zone.

There are now three distinct possibilities over the short term.  Each leg of this rally has subdivided into smaller and smaller waves, which has continually caused it to overshoot target zones.  The market reserves the right for the current wave up to either mark 5 small waves to complete ALL OF blue wave 5 -- or 5 small waves to mark only wave i of 5, which would then lead to a small correction before reaching higher, into the original target zone.  

Trade beneath 1337.35 would rule out the wave i of 5 possibility. Since there are five waves in place (see 5 minute chart), it could be a complete wave (possibly still unfolding).  However, it's not until 1321 is violated that we can rule out the potential that this is merely all part of blue wave 4.  The Dow chart should be helpful in this regard. 

Sometimes, this is just how it works.  The market gives us new price data, and we do our best to interpret it accordingly.  It's not a fixed mechanism, and targets can rise or fall as the market shifts its position.  It's a real-time mechanism -- and some days are harder than others. 

There is simply no way to know for sure at this stage which of the three is playing out.  But we do have some hints and key levels to watch. 

On the upside, the classical technical analysis pattern now on the S&P 500 (SPX) implies a move to 1370-1371 if the 1354 highs are broken.  1354 would therefore be an area to watch for whipsaw action.  A head-fake above and back below would suggest that the higher targets will fail.  Conversely, a break above followed by a successful back-test of the breakout point would imply that the original 1376-1378 zone mentioned last week could actually be reached.

1321.41 is the big key pivot to the downside, and that would indicate that blue wave 5 is over.

The first chart I'm going to share is the Dow Jones Industrials, because its levels are clearer, and, more importantly, closer than SPX.  I've highlighted some trade trigger levels and the projected targets if those levels are broken.  I suggest watching the Dow during the day to act as a canary in the coal mine for SPX.  The levels and targets are mentioned in the call-out boxes.


The next chart is the 10-minute SPX and shows that the rally has completed enough squiggles to potentially mark a complete wave at higher degree, and highlights some of the support zones.


The next chart is the very short-term SPX chart, which shows that the rally has potentially completed 5 small waves at micro degree.  As I mentioned earlier, there are enough squiggles now in place to count five waves complete at the large and small degrees of trend.  The big question now is whether that wave is only a smaller portion of wave 5, or the whole thing. 

The final chart is my big picture preferred count, to help center everything.  This shows the rally as the (y) wave of a larger double zigzag to wave B.  Though it seem likely that wave B still has a few months left in it, the implications of this count are that the 2008 lows will be revisited after wave B completes.  That probably sounds impossible to everyone right now, but keep in mind that this current rally sounded impossible to a lot of people back in October.

As I mentioned previously, I'm leaning toward the view that the next peak will mark wave (iii) of (c).  If that's correct, it will be followed by a nice trade-able correction in wave (iv), and then another wave up to complete wave (c).  It's also possible that the next turn will mark ALL OF wave (c).  The next decline will help determine which view is correct.


At the beginning of the article, I promised some historic data.  So far in 2012, the market has stayed above its January opening price.  Going back to 1928, the market has stayed above its January opening level for this long in only 13 prior years.  The other years were 1931, 1942, 1943, 1951, 1958, 1964, 1967, 1975, 1976, 1979, 1987, 2006, and 2011.  In 8 of those years, the market stayed above its opening yearly price for the remainder of the entire year.  The remaining 5 years, the market lasted an average of 92 trading days above its opening price.  In 1987 and 1931, of course, the market crashed later on during the year.

In conclusion, for at least a month I've been warning bears to wait until the trend channels break before getting too excited about the potential of a decline, and that continues to hold true.  Not exactly esoteric stuff -- trend lines are Basic Charting 101 -- but I mention this to illustrate to less experienced traders why front-running a trend change can be dangerous if one isn't careful.  The market has reached another potential reversal zone -- but whether it will actually reverse or not is yet to be determined.  Trends can run a lot longer than seems reasonable, and that has certainly been the case for this rally.  Watch the trendlines and the key levels for clues.  Trade safe.

The original article, and many more, can be found at http://PretzelCharts.blogspot.com

345 comments:

  1. Mr. Pretzel,  Do you still think the market will go higher? Has your view changed since posting your update 5 seconds ago??????????

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  2. lmao.  I love those questions.  :D

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  3. Man, try as I might, I can't seem to get these updates done with any less than 8 hours work... usually more.  :/

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  4. Better question: What will the bottom be for TVIX?

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  5. Yup, I literally LOL when I see those. 

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  6. Went long ES 1344.75.  ES looks like a textbook wave 4 flat right now.

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  7. BTW, FYI I called the Island Top on another site along with the proprietor of the site in Oct. and he that said AAPL was going to 310. I provided no tgt. At 363 I lowered my SL to 373 and was subsequently (happily) stopped out there. The proprietor said AAPL was going to 310. There were some ppl pissed off at him. I called a long in APPL after getting stopped out, applying same method I use and have shown here.

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  8. Hrrumph.  Out at 45.50 -- could be a better entry coming up.

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  9. potential mini intraday ES flash crash ahead.

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  10. I didn't realize that in the big picture you were favoring the rally since Dec as a 3 wave rather than 5 wave.  We had been looking for the Minor (2) top for so long that I must not have noticed the change in count.  I may not be expressing the counts correctly, but bottom line, I am glad you brought the big picture probability to my attention.

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  11. ES 47 has to hold for this to work.

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  12. Careful here, this looks an awful lot like the c-wave of a 3-3-5 flat fourth wave.

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  13. So far, banks look very weak (FAS, XLF, etc.).

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  14. T1 gap fill 120, 41.25 ES

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  15. this action reminds me of the other mini-flash crash day, identical

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  16. I'm on the sitting this out for now.  I still see no signs that those providing the perma-bid are checking out anytime soon, but they tend to let bear children have their morning fun.  Then those bear cubs get mowed down a couple hours later . . .

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  17. here comes your min flash crash, nice call. Are you a prophet or something? ;)

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  18. If this is a c-wave to wave 4, it should bounce fairly soon.  If 1343.27 breaks, we can rule out that possiblity.

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  19. Hmm.  If 1342.27 does break, that would imply a failed fifth wave yesterday and a strong down market to continue for a time.

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  20. T1 reached
    T2 38-9 EST3 30 

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  21. ES
    T1 reachedT2 39T3 30

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  22. 1342.27 in spx or es?

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  23. Cash, and that was a typo -- should be 43, not 42.

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  24. the Ts represent bounce points on the trip down

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  25. no, not a prophet. Am a bot.

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  26. Good Bot!! Warn us next time when your lot is ready to sell :D

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  27. that is what the levels are for, that is when you sell, when they are reached. . .

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  28. while you can do what you want, I am avoiding any long plays today, falls will be abrupt, unannounced, they just happen

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  29. Well it looks like the perma-bid forces still think this morning waterfall game is fun to play.  Ha, ha. Will be curious to see if just like that we are back above 1,250 by ten.

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  30. Yeah, I got that impression from a few other posters, so that's why I figured I'd better update it.  When (iii) completes, there should still be a good decline to the low 1300's.  If the alternate interpretation is correct, it will of course be a much deeper decline.  Have to see how it looks heading down, assuming the rally doesn't continue until the next decade without a correction.  ;)

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  31. Did anyone else go long just above this level?  To me, these are the no-brainer trades.  Risk a point or two for a big potential return.

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  32. Anyone else having trouble w/ Stockcharts this morning?  I want to post a chart for you guys, but can't even get it to load.

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  33. second test or break of 41.25 ES coming up. Add 3 for $SPX ES conversion.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pPirYDvwM30

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  34. Yup, sure did.  If we break that level then you simply go short, if not we could easily bounce back to yesterday's highs.

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  35. Just a thought about the perma-bid alliance. As euro banks soak up more of the liquidity available for their own survival there may be less to inject into the perma bid. I know LTRO squared is coming but it may not be that successful. Also the FED window to Europe has been getting tapped hard.

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  36. 'zactly.  That's where you have to take the emotion out of it.  Such a clear stop/reverse level, and hardly any risk.  No matter what I think of the market, I'll take that risk/reward everytime.

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  37. I think it's pretty cool that the site isn't a bull or bear site -- people taking both sides of trades, and not attacking each other over it (with the exception of maybe one poster who has 37 accounts, lol).  Anyway, you don't see that too often.

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  38. Yea, I completely agree, that and as much as we bears would love to see a reversal to the downside, the trend is still up unfortunately.

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  39. What's really funny is that even though I'm long right here with a tight stop, I'm kinda rooting for the bears.  :D

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  40. rotflmao, yeah, take the emotion out as you just said.

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  41. Market (S&P) testing a critical juncture... February 3rd (employment numbers day) high.

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  42. for me, it is really quite mechanical PL, like a bot, goes here and this, goes to that level and that.

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  43. still holding the measly 400 TVIX i have.......also EDZ...EPV...SKF...

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  44. Bulls need to pull it together right here, or the bears may have the ball for a while.

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  45. Yes, just went long at 41.50 es with reversal short around 40 if we get there.

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  46. Love that people here are constructive and objectively focused on strategies that can work on either side. 

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  47. Makes the market more difficult to manipulate when both sides are more balanced.

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  48.  Now you've done it, taunted the bulls.  Red flag, you're outta here.

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  49. lol-- I'm not taunting, though.  Just stating the facts.  Keep in mind that I'm long ES as well!  :)

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  50. Head and shoulders on SPX 1-minute chart... so if that critical 1343 level doesn't hold, it implies a pretty quick move to at least 1323.

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  51. typos galore today -- should read 1333

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  52. Is it going to be the old script replay again? Dip a little to lure the bears, then wipe them out with another ramp to end at the high of day? I guess we shall see if the bears had enough of the "squeezing"...

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  53. $RUT's been riding a 10pt downward channel since 2/3. If I only had the cajones to play it.

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  54. Until I see otherwise, bulls are just toying with sellers right now. My belief is that the short five to twelve point waterfall moves are ALLOWED and orchestrated by longs in order to buy stocks cheaper, lure bears, get weak longs to bail, etc. 

    We are at a major resistance area overhead thoush.  So this is not a bad place to have a minor correction before the next round of LTRO funds gets here at months' end.

    I also wonder if holding things down for this week has a lot to do with opex.  The puts already worthless.  So the MM's might as well hold down the value of the calls for the next day or two.

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  55. Closed most of my longs at 44 -- I don't like the look of the pattern, looks corrective.

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  56. Aloha,  here is MONDAY's VIX Option trade report.  i was traveling so here it is for the gang.  Tuesday's report should be out soon and i will post then.  VIX FEB options expire at close today and volume is heavy.. 

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y0BhD2Fcmgg&list=UU83RU3yDhHwzG9d9LD1x5yQ&index=2&feature=plcp

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  57. It's risky to hold TVIX too long especially after a down day 'cause the market top has not been confirmed yet.  Bought TVIX 16.50 yesterday, sold 17.70 today.   There may be one more chance to reload for a quick spike, then I'll be done with TVIX until next month.

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  58. A breakout here would change my opinion.  It's one of those patterns where you can't tell if it's an ending diagonal or a *leading* diagonal.

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  59. ok enough of this down sh%#&t. time to break out of the triple top.

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  60. Pattern looks better after that spike.  I'll let the remainder ride for now.

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  61. And the perma bid forces lure sellers again . . . and then forty-five minutes later their morning gains are back under water.  Weird.

    Sellers better get back in the game here.

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  62. I think the market has changed.  It is now luring bulls in to trap them.

    I am expecting a down close today.  OpEx on Friday... their goal is to leave calls "high and dry" after the runup.

    My 2 cents.  Not to be taken as trading advice.

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  63. I think the market has changed. It is now luring bulls in to trap them.

    I am expecting a down close today. OpEx on Friday... their goal is to leave calls "high and dry" after the runup.

    My 2 cents. Not to be taken as trading advice.     

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  64. How interesting is that we are faced with multiple possibilities everyday? A great after product of no bias thinking.

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  65.  That's life. Isn't it.

    Otherwise, we would be able to do travel back to the future. :)

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  66. PL - any thoughts of re-entering longs @ 44 given the action we saw earlier?  Just curious if ur happy here with small longs from 42.50 or want to get back to your original position.

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  67. Wave up looks impulsive to me... but I'm not sure if it's part of an expanded flat or not. Still have 2 contracts long, so I'm happy to let that ride.  I'm a little too unclear right now to risk more than that at this point.

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  68. Thanks.  I sold my whole position a while ago at 45.5, was contemplating getting back in here, but am just going to ignore it and call it a day.  Thanks for your help, as always.

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  69. Alright, I need to make like a tree and get some rest.  I'm literally dizzy from lack of sleep.  GL

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  70. bought 200 more EPV at 38.47........hold 400 now

    bought 200 REW at 39.58

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  71. TVIX only up 10% now. Follow RUT today.

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  72. bought 400 more EDZ at 12.86..total held 800

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  73. Authentic1,

    I like your theory.  The run down lures sellers (again) and MM's get them to bail on the five point run up as everyone thinks: here we go again. 

    BUT . . . the run up is also a fakeout move that lures bulls in thinking they've got an elevator ride for the rest of the day.  And so the Street gets 'em coming and going.  And they aren't adding value to the calls sitting out there.

    Sounds like a plausible scenario to me.  ;)

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  74. volume is pumping..

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  75. thats not measly..  be patient...the 2012 boat has only been cruising the smoooth calm water in the marina. The real Booz Cruise is about to head out to open choppy waters to let it rip.   Reggae band is setting up..  lol 

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  76. Ty.  We will only know at the close.

    So far the market looks weak.  It went down until about 11:00AM , ramped for 1 hour, and now headed lower again.  What is really interesting is that the "buy" switch hasn't been flipped on even though the most recent down move has retraced more than 50% of the up move from 11 to noon.  In past days, as soon as we touched that 50% retrace, the market would shoot up immediately. 

    Maybe they are just waiting and keeping everyone in suspense before flipping the buy switch today... for dramatic effect. :)

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  77. nice trade twinn.. im waiting to see if $VIX breaks 20 today. end of day might be exciting as FEB Options expire on close.  Last month it rallied hard into close on expiration of VIX options. ya never know of course. volume is out of control

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  78. All we need now, is for AAPL to head sharply lower.

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  79. nother probe of 41 ES

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  80. AAPL will go its own way, nothing there IMO

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  81. Good night, Biff.

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  82. I think the bottom is in for the VIX and the related stocks.  They retraced a part of the last move up and have been climbing on volume all day - even if the market isn't moving.  Starting to make the higher low and higher high pattern

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  83. If the market breaks, AAPL should break below 500 and would help accelerate things along.  Or, if AAPL breaks first, it will bring the market down to follow it.

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  84. $VIX rallied above 20 into VIX Option expiation at closing today. TVIX  is screaming. WD40 the bearings..  will get profit taking but last month it rallied hard into the close. 

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  85. wow, lucky guess ;)

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  86. Closing in on that break below 1343

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  87. Eurozone ministers meeting called offFinance ministers of the eurozone will not be meeting face to face to discuss Greece on Wednesday, but will hold a conference call instead, Luxembourg Prime Minister Jean-Claude Juncker

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  88. lol. 1343.27 held by 1 tick so far

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  89. Watch the cash spx here, it will gap a bit if 1343 cash fails.  ES futures discount to cash can fluctuate due to supply/demand.

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  90. Yeah, simply incredible.  PL drawing good lines in the sand.  Impressive.

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  91. Exactly, I was about to comment on that too. How accurate is PL? to the 0.01 !! Hurrah!

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  92. EMINI

    http://traderjoed.blogspot.com/

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  93. TVIX was up all the way to 18.94, almost 17%. I sold the 2000 shares I bought yesterday at 16.3 and 16.8, at 1.6 and 18.6 today. Not bad for a day's work. RUT is not as weak as it should??

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  94. Just hit 1343.28... and bounced nicely

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  95. Whoa! 228% profit in less than 24 hours.  I shorted Yahoo yesterday.  Its been bouncing between 16.3 and 15.4.  I managed to get in about 16.18 yesterday.  It just had a mini flash crash from about 15.9 to 14.92 in about 4 mins.  It was so fast, I didn't catch the bottom, got out a bit higher, but still enough to eek out 228%.

    ...and no all my trades aren't that good, that was a rare beauty.  I'm usually too depressed to post the bad ones, believe me I've had my share.  lol.

    btw since Yhoo is near the 15.3 area, you can choose to go long and look for 16.3 if you're crazy or if your advisor suggests. 

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  96. That way, they can hit Mute and cuss and swear at the other guy.

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  97. Thank you. Am holding it now also.

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  98. Maybe they're all glued to the live feed of Westminster...
    You know these guys all have power dogs.

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  99. Were you using February puts?

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  100. Went long at 1,343.5 for a quick scalp trade.  Was an easy call.  Longs aren't about to pass the baton just yet.  It still think this is just fucking around and holding a range for today until we get closer to opex.

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  101. Dear APPL,

                   Come on down, please.

    Thanks in advance,
    Bears everywhere.

    lol.

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  102. hummmmmm, 41 a third time. . . . .

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  103. i closed out my tvix position 

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  104. dear stockholder, or wannabe stock holder,
    I dooonnnnntttttt want tooooooo. 
    LOL

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  105. hrm we're either basing for another leg up or topped around. any bets?

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  106. This is, without question, a Teflon market .... :)

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  107.  Quiz: Which gained the most this year - AAPL or CAT?

    The answer will give you some clue clue on your plead (of desperation?). :)

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  108.  Is this another bad person we have been warned about.  I have seen this blog mentioned before.

    Joe

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  109. No, at least I didn't. start out that way.  It's been taking days for the stock to cover that range not enough time before Opex.  Part of that return was from a round trip using Feb, which I added when I liked the movement earlier.

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  110. Mommmm,...The bull is stuck in the tree again....Call the fire department (or get the shotgun).

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  111. you guys ready for the surprise of your lives?

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  112. yes. anything new katzo?

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  113. readjusting T2 to 38.25 ES

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  114. No desperation. 

    I just know that AAPL needs to crack in order for the market to do the same.  The comment above was a joke.

    AAPL and CAT are both up between 23% and 25% ytd.  Both are proxies for the market.  AAPL gets all the press, though.

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  115. Wazzup (or wazdown)

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  116.  Which is not fair, isn't it?

    America went from making things to making things up. :) DOW industrial, therefore is no longer a relevant index for Information America. That is why I don't think PL should be agonizing over the $TRAN enigma. Moving information does not take eighteen wheelers. Zero's weight just as much as One's. :)

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  117.  Surely you wouldn't have the bulls allowing a break of PL's support!  And don't call you Shirley.

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  118. Good point.  Great analogy.

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  119. And Benji knows they definitely weigh less than paper...it's a damn shame.

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  120. I've noticed a gap on VIX from 36-40. Do gaps on VIX need to be eventually filled like in ES?

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  121. AAPL's drop is being saved for downside firepower for tomorrow???

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  122. According to Pretz HS comment about the 1 min S&P, 1333 should come soon

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  123.  The regulatory approval of Motorola sale to Google is an early warning to AAPL bulls and bears alike. Google will soon be making things.

    And not just making things up. :)

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  124. sold 200 of my 400 TVIX at 19.05

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  125. Bounced at your Target, to the penny!

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  126. yup, I can adjust with more wave action, thnx here17. . . 

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  127. rotflmao, thnx for the comedy

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  128. TVIX only up 16.89% (these are hints)

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  129. I'm back to flat.  One of these times if you're holding TVIX and not sure you want to sell, you can hedge with XIV and wait and see what happens

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  130. Katzo - was the T2 post the big surprise?  The suspense is killing me :).  

    I am now short from 1340 ES, reversed there from long from 41.50.  Looks like the MM's want to clear out the sl's on the shorts into the close.  I think o/n could be volatile :) , I will set some greedy entry/exits and see if I can short much higher or cover lower.

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  131. I try...playing nurse to sick baby boy today. I poured him some cereal this morning, handed him the box, and put the bowl of cereal in the cabinet. I figured that it would not be a good day for me to trade today.

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  132.  Are we done with 5 down, that started from yesterday's HOD, for the day and is on a wave up?

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  133. T2 means tgt #2, #1 was hit exactly and bounced off of it

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  134. are you implying the bull case?  should it be up more? i can logic both bear and bull sides

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  135. Thanks for the info. I didn't know about XIV. $-)

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  136. Yes, the break of my T1 (41). That was a sure thing from the look of my charts

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  137. money has been slowley selling stocks in last 5 days and buying 30yr and 10yr u s treas.........10 yr yield hit 2.10% i think and now at 1.92%......30 year hit 3.21% and now at 3.07%................bond market knows!!!!!!

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  138. es low on feburary 8th was 38.25..........they one ticked it today and left 1572 contracts done there at 1338

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  139. Why hedge?  Why not sell now and buy back above or below a certain level later? 

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  140.  Yep.

    My 'TLT short got clobbered. What is puzzling, however, is that GLD, SLV and commodities are tanking as well. Probably due to USD/Euro cross.

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  141. thanks....still got 200..............own a whole raft of double and single and few triple short etf's

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  142. I just booked profits for the first time instead of waiting for it to go higher. Bought TVIX at 16.84, sold at 18.94. Thanks you guys for sharing what you know.

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  143. If you will remember I was actually bullish this morning until I saw this candle marked in red. The wave structure was there I thought for a (final?) run higher, the EW1 being located at 52.5 level, EW2 down at the 42.5. Then up past 52.5 again or so I thought. When it broke down (red arrow), I switched immediately.

    I did not understand this candle. AAPL is in black who what to openly cry about a missed long opportunity.http://www.screencast.com/users/katzo7/folders/Jing/media/b8ed7d38-fb92-4fef-83d5-adeb22e54449

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  144. euro got below 1.31 .............have played UUP and EUO several times over last 9 months and did well......they just dont move fast enuf for me

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  145. sold TVIX 19.01..  waiting for bounce off lower BB. Not sure about time frame yet..  Slow Stoch rounding over..  I really feel we may get a surge at close so i may jump in soon.. 

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  146. They are so volatile intra day I've played both on the same day and finished in the money on each. I'm not holding either at the moment

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  147. dollar breakin above a plateau

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  148. You can almost hear the MM's saying . . . now, now you silly retail bears, let's not carried away now.  This is fun and all and we're letting you have a moment to do your thing, but a break of 1,340 wasn't exactly what we had in mind . . . ;)

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  149.  Would you elaborate on this for someone less experienced please?  Thanks.

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  150. appears a back test of my T1 or 41.25 is just about finished up. this is a hard one (she said) tho. either down or up EOD (brilliant you f-ckin asshole katzo, lol). Direction has switched to down tho IT. So if not today, tomorrow imo. 

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  151. IYT proxy for Trannies!!     looks like yesterday lower high has failed......on 20pd mov avg now......my 50day is just below 92.00.....current px 94

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  152. It does appear that there may be a downward channel forming.  If it holds, we'll see a break of 1,340 next.  Which makes sense for shaking up prevailing expectations a bit.

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  153. got a 5min measured move to 1335 on the es.....wish i wud hv shorted 42s!!

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  154. that 20 ma has kept the spx in line all day. kind of nice for a change.

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  155. Just so you understand my system and analysis, my Ts, like T1, T2, T3, are the tgts (targets), when I post lots of them it means that I feel that there will be some action on that side. In this case ES went to the T1, then bounced, testing T1 one or two more times. When it breaks T1 it goes to T2, then bounces back up to T1. Then it goes back down (in this case) and tests the T2 one or two more times. A break of T2 means T3 comes into view. This is how it works on a normal clean Elliott Wave mrkt. Unclean waves are difficult. . . 

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  156. Maybe its more of...  "Ha! Ha! You greedy bulls... Surprise!  We're really going to kick your ass today!" 

    Lol.

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  157. Said this morning "while you can do what you want, I am avoiding any long plays today, falls will be abrupt, unannounced, they just happen"

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  158. Katzo, I appreciate all the work and analysis you do, but admittedly, I have not learned your terminology and vocabularly yet. 

    For many of your posts, I have no idea what you are referring to or talking about.  And I'm not unlearned in market and chart speak.  

    Something for you to consider, and I write this with complete respect for your contributions here.

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  159. Looks like now that the shorts are out of the way, there's no one left to sell and we'll close above Friday's close.

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  160. There's the telling buying surge.  As I thought, bulls and MM's were just toying with sellers today.  They can take this market back up any time they like.

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  161. everyone understands me saying (sarcasm) TVIX was only up x%. Big move.

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  162. Todays move looked like the other day.  TVIX et al stay strong until 3 then dissipate quick.  Thats when you should add or replace with XIV.  I sold UVXY @ 7.25 and its down to 6.85.  After hours will be able to buy back for 10-15 cents less

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  163. just ask, sometimes I admit I am turgid

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  164. Yes, I got that.  Ha, ha.

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  165.  lol you can't really tell sarcasm on the internetsss. but good thing i sold tvix already

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  166. In the space of less than twenty minutes, longs just put 95% of what was sold today under water.  And after a day when it *seemed* that maybe the tide was turning back to something more 'normal'.

    Whoever (or whatever) is buying this market seems to rather love taking out anyone who would sell this market short.

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  167. do you understand that EW chart, the red arrow, and why I switched from bull to bear?

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  168. Greek conserative leader agrees to sign commitments for obtaining bailout - 2 of 3 conditions are now being met.
    That's who let the bulls out.

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  169. i got lucky at 19.00 will peak after hours for a nibble

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  170. Possible equally sharp down move into the close... 

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  171. Ah, I get it. 

    I'm sure that wasn't leaked AT ALL to buyers who would pounce on it with less than a half an hour before the market closes.  It's always just such a coinkidink that these things get released just after 3 pm, I guess.

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  172. Incredible, really.

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  173. Perfect timing. No?

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  174. It's not going to happen.

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  175. Well that explains the price action today.  No wonder sellers were ALLOWED a minor rundown.  Whoever knew what was coming by the day's end was buying everything in sight.

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  176. Broke.  Nice call on that important level.

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  177. Looks like this will be in play.  If this takes place, wave i of 5 could then be eliminated as 1337.35 would break... leaving 1321.41 as the key level to confirm blue 5 is complete.  As always, great analysis, PL.

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  178. brianhut expressed concern my communication skills were not good. Have to admit, I come from a foreign strange land, Massachusetts. If there is anything you do not understand just ask. I am at work lots so do not have much time at some points so throw out quick thoughts. Best of luck everyone with their trades..

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  179. Plus, you live up there with very little sunshine in winter - probably just a vitamin D deficiency ;)

    Awe, c'mon Katzo, you do great -  I'll be your valentine.   > ' ' <

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  180. Yeah it deflates after hours..  very similar to other day.. thanks for XIV tip.. will look at it.. 

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  181. Katzo, this is not trying to be less than affirming of your work.  But typing out something like  'Target 2 reached at xxxx,  Target 3 at xxxx is next to look for' takes less time than explaining afterward. And everyone knows exactly what you mean. 

    The charts and info you post are generally fabulous, btw.  But there are times when I'm just not sure what you are referring to, and since I know how busy I get when I am in the middle of a trade myself, I'm not one to ask another trader too many questions during the session.

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  182. uhhhh!!!!  not idiot!!....hahaha

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  183.  massachusetts...hrmm i've only heard of that strange place. lol
    no worries katz, thanks for your contributions

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