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Wednesday, March 7, 2012

SPX and NYA Updates: No Holy Grail Just Yet

Yesterday went as well as a day can for numerous targets... and while it's still a bit tricky for the bigger picture, the very short-term charts seem fairly straighforward.  I'm going to lead with the short term chart, which expects that SPX is due for a bounce before it makes new lows.  After that, we'll discuss the bigger picture some more.  Then we'll remove our brains from our heads and toss them around like footballs, because they probably won't be good for much else.  I know mine certainly isn't.

I apologize for the size of the wave iv target zone, but the real blame falls on the market -- due to the length of wave iii, there's a lot of room for wave iv to play around in.  It could stop near the wave (4) high, or it could bounce all the way up to fill the gap.  Either way, I do expect that new lows will be made after this bounce is over.


The next chart is a conglomerate of markets, and shows that the Trannies are now in a key overlap range, but so far most everything else is still holding the uptrend line off the October lows.  (Again, if you right click the chart and select "open in new window" you can bring up the larger chart.)


It's probably not advisable to get ultra-bearish just yet.  I know it's very tempting after a day like yesterday to go all-in on the short side and throw caution to the wind -- but as you can see, the majority of markets are still technically in uptrends.

Yesterday, I talked about the likelihood that this was a wave 4 decline, with new highs to come.  That's still quite possible, but I'm now leaning toward the idea that the 1378 print high may have been more significant.  Just barely.  Leaning, that is.

After having more time with the NYA chart, I've changed the labeling a bit... and under the new labeling, the rally counts as a potentially complete waveform.  First the big picture, then the 30-minute chart.  The alternate count is shown in black.  I'm about 55% to 45% in favor of the red/blue count at the moment.





The next chart is simply a daily chart of the Dow Industrials, which shows some support/resistance lines and takes all the noise out of the count.  It also shows how this could now be counted as a complete waveform. 


Finally, a look at the SPX 30-minute, and a way to view the waveform as complete in that market.

A couple readers have asked me to elaborate a bit on why yesterday's revamp of the count was so potentially meaningful.  I mentioned it yesterday, but I think the significance was lost on non-Elliotticians.  The idea of a triangle in the count is quite significant, because it means that the odds heavily favor that this leg of the rally is the last leg (at least, at this degree).  Triangles almost always appear as the penultimate (second to last) wave in a waveform.  In other words, we wouldn't expect to see a triangle in that position if this were in fact the start of an impulsive new bull market. 

Now, that said, here are a few thoughts for bears to chew on.  The big one that keeps rattling around in my brain is the historical precedent based on the length of time this rally has gone without a major correction.  When a new year starts off as strongly as this one did, historically, the odds heavily favor that the year will end higher than where it started.  We also have seasonality still at work, arguing against the bear case, at least until May or thereabouts.

So, I'm definitely not advising mortgaging the house right here and throwing your life savings into puts.  As I stated earlier, while there are a number of encouraging signs for bears, but there's still no confirmation of anything -- other than a long-overdue correction has finally unfolded.

Again, I'm leaning toward the idea that this is the start of a bigger decline -- but, even if that's correct (in fact, especially if that's correct) -- then there will be plenty of time for bears to make money.  The market isn't going to zero tomorrow.  Right now, it's almost a coin toss in my mind as to whether the 1378 print high is "it."  If you didn't dip your toe in while I was suggesting the rally was putting in a top (of some form) there -- and prices were much higher -- it's probably advisable to sit tight and wait for a bounce or for confirmation... unless you're a day trader, obviously.

If one looks at the trendlines shown on the many charts above, the majority of markets are either at, or very near, probable support zones.

If this is the start of a much larger decline, confirmation will come eventually, and there will certainly be better setups to trade.  In the meantime, there's the short-term charts to work with.  Trade safe.

The original article, and many more, can be found at http://PretzelCharts.blogspot.com

227 comments:

  1. Good morning! I'm first to the buzzer today.

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  2. lol -- good morning.  You sneaked in while I was fixing a typo.  :)

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  3. Guess I caught you with your "pens" down. :)

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  4. Wanted to bring my comment forward from yesterday, in reply to Whip_Sawed's excellent post.

    I believe this group
    of traders recognizes a divergence between the elevated market
    evaluation and the weak fundamental economy.  The only thing this market
    has going for it is liquidity, and that does not generate true wealth,
    merely inflates values.  This is the basis of my bearish attitude. 
    When the market corrects to realistic valuations, then we adjust
    from bears to bulls as appropriate.

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  5. Spiker, I have no idea where your comment went.  I see it in my e-mail, but it's not showing up anywhere.

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  6.  I was editing it and got smacked with flagged for review.  As if I would ever hurt a little kitten!

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  7. GM all. Am listening to HawaiianRainbow.com for the morning's action. Sweet.

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  8. I think your pusts is still there.

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  9. The problem there is that an inflation/liquidity-driven market can go on for a long-time -- read: 2009 bottom.

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  10. You almost got all of them.

    "So, I'm definitely not advising mortgaging the house right here and
    throwing your life savings into pusts.  As I stated earlier, while there
    are a number of encouraging signs for bears, but there's still no
    confirmation of anything -- other than a long-overdue correction
    has finally unfolded."

    Unless a pusts is a new trading vehicle you do still have a spelling error.

    Joe

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  11. Ben's on a unicycle, on a tight-rope, 2.6 trillion miles up without a net.  My neck hurts from looking up for so long, but I can't take my eyes off to find out if he can get to the platform on the other side...

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  12. lmao -- you guys don't know about pusts?  They're kinda gross, but provide great leverage.  :D

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  13. that was quite a down move from 48es...

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  14. That was so bad...lol...something I would say :)

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  15. A surprisingly short wave 4, if that was it.

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  16. Sorry Sir, we're all out of pusts today.

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  17. the way it dropped just before the market opened, maybe it wants to take money away from the people who went long yesterday??

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  18. Don't know, but my new secret indicator says big money are right now buying this weakness. I'm expecting a move back up within the hour to the top of the short term (upward sloping) trend channel, one you can see if plotting on a 120 minute chart.

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  19. pl,
     
    missing an "s" in just...right after the tranny chart
    One to many "s" in "pusts"  near the end of the article.
     
    Cheers and again well done!

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  20. Thanks for yet another great article....Even Good Mourning America was talking about yesterday's pukathon...Georgie Steph was a bit giddy, so I think he was short in more than one way. Staying flat or picking up some UVXY when it gets discounted a bit more.

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  21. PL, a great article! Thanks for the first and last charts, both key for me. Thanks! I'm glad you explained the significance of the triangle leading to this presumed last big rally. From the economy's perspective, it makes me feel bad: After the liquidity fix wears off, great depression?

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  22. I just worry about what my kid has to look forward to in his later years...By then Apple will have bought all the defense contractors and cornered the market on drones, (presenting the iDrone 13SX2BU...voice operated of course...."Siri...engage target".) At least he's got that goin' for him.

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  23. ty, DD -- I understand now what you were asking for the other night.  :)

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  24. care to share your secret indicator a little? :) what is the upside target you see? So do you expect once that is hit we start ew5? lower low to come?

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  25. Michael, thank you very much for the donation.  I truly appreciate your ongoing support, thank you.  :)

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  26. I guess I will have to give back to the blog a little. OK... This seems good for 3 or 4 points scalp trade...

    http://screencast.com/t/1C6wuYDeV

    Secret, leading indicator based on 8 "smart money" stocks, expressed as a normalized ratio vis-a-vis ES front month. Stocks from this article:
    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-best-are-bullish-the-worst-are-not-2012-03-01

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  27. up reset might be over the 1348 es level holding, not probing much above this level provides more bearish info

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  28. I second that! 

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  29. this back to 48 is of concern to me, no bear flag, that is gone. next level is 54, it might be building a base at the 48 level for a final (we hope) push higher

    huge impulsive candle on the 15 min ES

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  30. nother great call, now watching 54

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  31. The people who just chart the cash markets see a big gap from ~1360 that they will expect to see filled...Not necessarily today, but eventually.

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  32. Jan Hatzius, GS's chief economist, predicts 200K NFP jobs and a slight dip in unemployment rate to 8.2%. Trade safe. :)

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  33. Thanks PL for the work you do. I had the fortitude to lighten up some bearish positions and wait for another opportunity yesterday due to the report.

    In "Trading In The Zone" by Douglas, the author always asks the reader to trust their edge, but that they should always remember that "anything can happen" and traders get in trouble when they become too emotionally attached to expected outcomes. That's the interesting paradox in this racket.

    Your charting and analysis always is a healthy reminder of that, while providing another edge via EWT.

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  34. signs this up may be over (EW5s on multiple ST charts), getting 1352 instead of 54 as possible resistance. not doin anything yet, but watching and waiting for one more indicator to lead me short. out of ST longs.

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  35. added my shorts back on after this rebound, may be more in the wave 4 tank, but i like the odds given pretzel's targets of a fifth wave down for this move and/or the start of wave 3 very soon.

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  36. thnx Whoa Nellie and here17....

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  37. Great article, PL.  I am a big fan of your ability to articulate your counts from the 30K foot level all the way down to the 30min level.

    PS - I have to say I am always amazed by the lack of pizza likers on this board.  The ratio of trolls to pizza likers is 1/1 right now!  Maybe only trolls like pizza?  

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  38. Is the market waiting for the Apple announcement before making its move?

    "Apple is expected to unveil a new version of its iPad tablet today at the Yerba Buena Center in San Francisco. The event starts at 10 a.m. Pacific time"

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  39.  This chart shows why it usually isn't a good idea to buy funds trading at a large premium. At the end of Monday TVIX was trading at a 17% premium. At the end of Tuesday that was under 7%. TVIX went up 4% while UVXY  went up 15%. I'm not saying TVIX can't go up, just that there are probably better ways to play volatility. The premium is back to about 11%. The price of TVIX seems to have completely separated from the value of TVIX. You could probably make money going long UVXY and short TVIX.

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  40. Good afternoon everyone.  It's lunch time up here in upstate NY where we're enjoying the Spring tease.

    PL,
    You're welcome for the donation.  After an epipheny like that and writing two updates in one day it was well deserved.  :D

    katz07,
    Thanks for the +1; that means alot coming from you.
     
    Good trading to everyone and hey let's be safe out there!!

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  41. agree; this 52 level looks like 50% retrace from yesterdays decline.

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  42. Great advice. Sometimes I need things explained to me in plain English. Thank you.

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  43. What's there to know. iPad 3 has great screen resolution ;-)

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  44. Forexpros is frozen at this time--anyone have alternatives for live es quotes?  TIA

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  45. Stochastics on the 15-min are reset for a possible fall from here.

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  46. mine is moving, maybe you need a reboot

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  47. It's psychological - the anticipation is what has been driving / holding AAPL higher.  There is room for "sell the news" here, and the market is in a precarious position.

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  48. Long a bit of UVXY @ 5.66. That premium for TVIX really isn't workin' for me

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  49. think ST top is in, removed my longs, going in short es slowly, some indicator candles appearing, this is my 1352 ish area

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  50. It's working OK for me.

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  51. Thanks--it's working again.  Was stuck on 1351.95 for so long I thought they froze up. LOL

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  52. Good luck. Unfortunately, I've already added to my TVIX position at the presently lower price. Next time.

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  53. AAPL conference takeaway: Game changing ....

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  54.  Thanks, and good fortune to you Sir.

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  55. Your favorite topping pattern...megaphone.  
    One more lunge higher can make it to the 54-55 zone.

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  56. Wow.  Silence...

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  57. should start a downhill slide, a slow one imo.
    possible closing tgt 1348 to 1349.5 ~ if this happens it would be bearish imo setting up a down for tomorrow

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  58.  Good eye, mate!

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  59. Have the  AAPL  training wheels have been taken off the bike and the market is coasting nicely for 400 more feet till AAPL saves it or it start wobbling into the bushes ??

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  60. what I'm watching... just for grins...

    These are $2 range charts of the SPX futures ES.
    First chart shows the trend channel we have been in since the end of Dec. 2011.
    The second chart shows the last several weeks and the battle around the 1352-53 level... Katzo and others have already noted this level as  key support / resistance.  Here's my view of it.  If we break through we probably end up at 1360 pretty quickly.  Or we may trade sideways or down to re-test the low at the 1340ish area.  I'm playing safe for now.  Almost flat in the market until a clearer direction emerges.

    We are also inside PLs target area for the bounce.

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  61. I said here before when AAPL for shooting to the sky about the launching of ipad3. I said that ipad3 will be a dud, and sure it is. Look at how AAPL is dropping after the news. IMO this is just the beginning, more and more people are waking up to other innovative products that are NOT Apple. People who already have ipad2 will not buy ipad3 since it has only been less than 1 year since ipad2 came out. Look how they cut the price by $100 for the ipad2.

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  62. the major part of my move had to start prior to 3 pm, it is after that, and down basically ran out of time. this puts tomorrows action into question.

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  63. Great article today. Very clear for us ammies.

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  64. This feels like a "managed" climb by the market makers.

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  65. you are right, AAPL down 1.18%
    sell the news I guess

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  66. Not so fast... they're working on the ramp back up as I write this.  The 526 level is a critical one to watch.

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  67. I thought it would have dropped much further, but it is holding up.

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  68. Skip Bayless?!?!.....could that really be you??

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  69. and a little closer view using the $2 range chart
    note that we have moved off the very oversold levels on the STO, MACD and RSI.  We are actually at levels were we could go either way without stretching the oversold or overbought areas.

    Staying flat for now...

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  70. but it was sell the news

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  71. 58% of Greek bond holders agree to swap...

    “Adding up the commitments to participate in the Greek PSI, it is now clear that the CAC hurdles will very likely be cleared,” ... 

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-03-07/investors-with-39-of-greek-debt-agree-to-join-in-swap-iif-says.html 

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  72. nice call Juan. What is time frame of chart?

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  73. there is my (and Juan's) 54, well 53.50, it is throwing off lots of dojis

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  74. Yes.  I expected it to be sell the news all the way into the close and beyond, instead of for only 2.5 hours.

    20 minutes left... anything can happen.

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  75. Also, maybe the typical flat and boring end of a 4th wave? Drop into PL’s target for ST box 1 tonight/tomorrow?

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  76.  Short squeeze - slowly. :)

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  77. very well could, I was just thinking about that Michael

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  78. And yesterday was a methodically managed descent from 1,350 to 1,340.  

    The narrow range since 11 am in the form of an ever so slightly expanding wedge is designed so that only pros with enough buying power and who can do the math could get out of a short postion that was taken below 1,348. 

    All the retail sellers get screwed though.

    It's also a mind fuck that keeps everyone guessing.  

    These are great for trading the three minute chart though.  You generally can get one to two points SPX out of every move up or down as the triangle resolves itself.  When it breaks though, you don't want to be on the wrong side of whichever direction that is. 

    With the 15, 30 and 60 minute chart indicators maxed out, we are due for at least a five point move back down soon.  Though maybe we get a test of 1,360 first.  

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  79. Thanks for posting.  Is that a 15 min. chart?

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  80. My secret indicator says that dumb money is chasing up and smart moving is selling down. At some point, maybe tomorrow, the dumb will catch up to the smart.

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  81. Yeah, do you get the feeling that these days the old adage “all boats rise and fall with the tide”, the tide is now AAPL instead of the market!!

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  82. again I tend not to position between 3:30 and 4:15, or hold
    usually it is dead between 4:30 pm and 1 am

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  83. 3pm EST tomorrow is when the swap closes (unless Greek finance ministry extends the deadline, which is always possible but wouldn't be a good sign).  They need 66% to agree to the CAC (and if you didn't agree to the swap, why would you agree to the CAC?).  So, there currently at 58% (assuming all who agree to the swap also agree to allow the CAC, which seems reasonable to me) and need to get to 66% by 3pm EST tomorrow.  Should be a 'fun' 22+ hours.  It's not like the whole world is watching with baited breath or anything...

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  84.  I've been noticing there seems to be a spike in activity around 5:30 and another on at about 7:00 PM pretty regularly. I'm usually working then but when I come home and turn my computer on to try and get some practice in the evening, I always seem to have just missed the last bus. Then tumbleweeds till after midnight at least, you're right. You can practice scalping quarter points, that's about it. I'm getting pretty good at scalping quarter points, hypothetically.

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  85. This is a range chart.
    So instead of printing a new bar over a fixed time frame a new bar is printed when the range moves beyond the current range.  For example;  If the /ES were to actually trade in a $2 range for an entire day then there would only be one bar for the day.  A new bar would not be printed until the price moves out of the current $2 range.I find that the range charts are good at filtering some of the 'noise'.  On the downside, the range needs to be set to provide enough info without removing some really valuable movement.

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  86. These are great points, brianhut.  I always appreciate your insight into the inner workings/ thinking of the market makers.  

    In these types of narrow wedges or consolidations, I end up scratching or taking small losses as I get whip-sawed while expecting the market to reverse.  I need to rethink my strategy on these.

    At first, they look like a double top. Then a H&S. Then by the 4th wave, I realize that I am being screwed with!  After 4 waves, I am worrying that the pattern is overdue to break.

    How do you recognize and begin to play these?  Any advice would be very helpful.  Everyone, please feel free to comment and make suggestions regarding this.

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  87. these are EW4 up moves, slow steady, then a break down eventually. . . 

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  88. Thanks for this info (3PM), Whoa_Nellie.  It is also right before the employment report on Friday morning.  Tomorrow will be very "interesting".

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  89. Thanks, NWDR.  I appreciate the details and the pros and cons.  Do you use a range chart as your primary decision making chart or as a supporting chart?

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  90. Your WXY triangle is right imho.  That is a 3 legger up in October (US Indexes) see, for example, IYM, and we broke the B wave midpivot low.  Commodities/Safehaven Fear shows same thing at fib and channel resistance.

    http://i835.photobucket.com/albums/zz279/SoulJester/CAD_JPY.png

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  91. hey cal - did you sell your spxu and mop up?

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  92. PL published a very short term chart today. 1st chart. We've followed that projected price path so far, as far as I can tell. As good a road map as any, I think.

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  93. I am changing my view, we are headed for ~1360 es before any more down. Someone mentioned a gap fill, this is prolly what is in store and will happen next.

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  94. good points Brian. Yesterday caught all complacent bull and bears a like IMHO, after a few business-as-it-has-been-for-the-last-2-months-down-days: always less than 0.5% down, and then BOOOM. everybody screwed, except the big boys. 

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  95. So... what's a good strategy?  Place a breakout limit order about 2 points above/below the range and wait?  Or enter at a target price and leave a 4 point stop loss to give it plenty of room to wiggle for a while?

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  96. What I'm having trouble mentally reconciling is the NYA and SPX charts.  The black alt on the NYA charts (3 and 4) shows a potential ST/IT top around 8300-8350 - about 4% higher from here.  While the SPX charts show a ST/IT top around 1358-63, only about .75% higher.  So, while the spx charts imply good defined risk from shorting the ES52-60 area, the NYA charts show a lot more upside potential. Given that the NYA is broader than SPX, I don't see how NYA could advance 4% without SPX coming along for the ride.  I'm curious as to others' thoughts.  Am I reading this wrong?  I was thinking of taking overnight risk (short) but now having second thoughts.  I can protect myself with a SL at es 1362, which is what I'll likely do, but still hoping to mentally resolve the spx vs. nya charts.  TIA

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  97. Hey Pretz, did we just see a perfect wave IV materialize that was sandwiched between 1352 and 54 exactly where you'd placed your mark!? That be pretty impressive IMHO. Today looked very "wave 4ish-type" to me, not much conviction.

    And looks like the DJIA closed right on the spot for today where you have the ascending redline that connects the June 2011 low with the blue wave 4 low on your 5th chart. (I've attached my won simplified plot to better explain what I mean). Spot on, or what!?

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  98.  is that strickly a ES call? or for tomorrow cash..?  thanks for info

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  99. es contracts are rolling over tomorrow so thinks are gunna get a bit weird. That is for es but es and $SPX are running similar. es is just under a point from $SPX

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  100. We are right in the middle of that range from about 11:30 AM on.  The question is: Where do you take a short position and stay in it for the expected down move?  Do you wait for the absolute top of the range to hit... 1358 or 1360?  Do you wait for it to drop back below 1348 before taking a position? How do you avoid getting whipsawed in a range like this other than to simply stay out?

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  101.  im all ears if you find anything interesting tonight..  im having trend line anxiety... 

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  102. thnx CalD, I will be watching these points from now on. love this kind of stuff. 

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  103. lol
    take two aspirin and call me in the morning

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  104. only position at the levels and if not sure don't position, yes, 1354 is a level but I just determined that 1360 is up so no position in middle from LOD to 1360. avoid over trading, use your lower indicators, W%R, stochs, on a longer time frame I use the 120

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  105. ideally you want to catch it just after the turn, SL up above or below the high/low, and suffer thru a possible double top. applying TLs is telling too

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  106.  haha.. It's getting kinda like when i look at the sky and see the cloud formations.  "look, its face"...  "Look its now an ice cream cone...  Look its now a Market Maker w some of my money.." 

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  107. Thank you, katzo.

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  108. Thank you, katzo.

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  109. I am a bit all over the place now, the 120 and 15 look lousy for more immediate down. Then, right in between we have this, the 60. I never use the 60 BTW, have found it throws curve balls. Have to just wait until something happens, either 1360 or a break of this TL. The GANN line already broke altho I am not going in on this. Stochs drop below that horizontal line and we may head down. Other charts I use are throwing off ABCs so nothing is happening now. Doji up there.

    http://www.screencast.com/users/katzo7/folders/Jing/media/aadbde25-b750-4157-ae55-ac1351b235ee

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  110. look, it is Bernanke talking to congress stating he never influenced the free mrkts

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  111. I hadn't really spotted anything I thought looked like a low-risk entry since the last time I got stopped out -- there actually were a couple but I wasn't around. I kind of dodged a bullet on the last one though -- I would have gotten mauled if I'd still been in it overnight. So I wasn't interested in anything that didn't look fairly bullet-resistant.

    I did buy a little SSO this morning at open and sold it pretty near the HoD. Probably just about paid for my last two adventures in spxu. Also tried my hand at VXX this week and I've made a couple of bucks on that. Still have half of it. Also had a piece a long oil fund but I dumped today too because I didn't like the way it was looking at me (watch it pop in the morning) $14 for Scottrade and maybe 10 for me on that one.

    Other than that I've been staying out of trouble, paper trading ES. I have a futures account set up and funded but I want to paper-trade at least a month -- or until something with Wave 3 Down tatooed on its forehead walks in -- before I try real bullets.

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  112. Katz,
    what is the correlation between the H2 and the M2 change?  I noticed the TFH2 changed to TFM2 today and dropped considerably on an up day.
    Is the TFM2 chart accurate?

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  113. This is from my broker "At the pit session opening (8:30am CST) on Thursday March 8, 2012
    the index contracts for the ES, YM, NQ, EM and TF rollover and June 2012
    (M2) becomes the front month!  We recommend traders begin
    to trade the new contact on this day as the volume will begin to drop
    off on the existing contract until its expiration eight days later." TF M2 should not have dropped that much, it should have been correlated to moves in TF H2.  

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  114. i sold half my spxu yesterday riding that wave 3 down.  I could be dreaming but am hoping for wave 5 down tomorrow.  good luck on your futures account!

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  115.  That is a tough one...the path of least resistance would be to follow the 20MA.

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  116. Time to unplug the computers and throw up the Faraday cage around my CNC mill.

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  117. Thank you for the reply.
    I was curious because at the close today my THink or Swim account changed to M2 automatically and the price
    changed from H2 794.30 to M2 790.30.  I think there is a time value diff but wasnt sure. 
    Just threw me off.  I covered my shorts at the close and am confused as to which way to go.  It doesn't look like
    things are going well in Greece.  I heard Germany has asked for an accounting of its gold in the vaults in NY.
    Wouldn't it be interesting if they want it delivered and it isn't all there?  I know it is lent and shorted against but
    this could get ugly.  I have heard that only 5% of owners could actually take delivery without causing massive
    short covering or massive money printing to drive the price down.

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  118. Packing some punch - is that storm

    http://www.n3kl.org/sun/noaa.html

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  119. Okay, what's a Faraday cage?

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  120. http://www.faradaycage.org/

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  121. thx - wondered if he was pulling my leg or something.  

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  122. I am the most serious poster ever...I never joke around about anything.

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  123. SPX last wave, ? 'a' of a ZZ or w1 up to a new high?

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  124. 5:30PM spike is because futures close at 5:30PM for maintenance and reopen at 6:00PM  It is similar to a spike you'd get at closing.

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  125. 5:30PM spike is because futures close at 5:30PM for maintenance and reopen at 6:00PM.  It is similar to a spike you'd get at closing.

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  126. Last time this size was 2007. Hmmm...

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  127.  do you guys have thoughts /historical numbers that suggest full moons and solar storms affect markets?  interesting. 

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  128. Okay, since it's quiet and I won't annoy too many people, just a few thoughts. Plus, since the first big solar flare the other day was when Mercury (intellect/communications/travel) was conjunct Uranus (shock/change/innovation) which will repeat on 3/18, the cosmos may stay agitated for a while.

    Since we're moving into the earth grand trine with Jupiter, Venus, Pluto and Mars next week, you should stay alert to possibilities of things getting accomplished only to be revised later. With Bernanke and friends meeting on 3/13 and Jupiter (expansion) conjunct Venus (cash flow) trine Pluto (debt) trine Mars (action) be on the alert for that sterilized (what - not reproducing or something?) stealth QE#.
    Astro $.02 Mercury Retrograde - Mercury turns retrograde from our geocentric perspective on March 12 prior to market open. It will be retrograde until April 4. Below is a chart illustrating prior Mercury retrograde cycles.  From a trading perspective, the mantra is "take profits early."  Ray Merriman comments that there is not a real trend during these cycles, just 1-4 day patterns that reverse suddenly - classic fake outs. Midway thru the retrograde cycle, there can be a substantial trend change.On another note, Mercury retrograde is traditionally viewed as not the best time to: purchase electronics or communications equipment, other large ticket items, travel on a complicated schedule with tight or multiple connections, initiate any new action such as a job or particularly a contract.  Now, c'mn Furrrr, what's that about?  Well, my trader friends, I've experienced it personally (the contract thing) and it plays out as "you are missing a vital piece of information" during Mercury retrograde. It's a small print concept and it will come back at you big time. So dot your i's and cross your t's and review everything twice.  Look for the missing element.  You also may find that projects already in the pipeline are suddenly subject to the "RE" factor - review, revise, re-negotiate, re-budget and even re-connect with old friends etc.  When it's retrograde, it's RE-something.  Under this cycle it is beneficial to work with contacts you have known for years to refine a plan or just share some memories.Ohhh  -  and back up your hard drives now, like today, like don't wait for the glitch demons to find you.

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  129. Sorry...Had to step outside to check out the moon :)

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  130. Good work keeping tabs on the moon.  That thing is dangerous.

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  131. I'm sorry, I didn't sketch in the alternate on the SPX.  Same potential there.

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  132. Oh, and from an astronomical perspective, that Venus Jupiter conjunction should be beautiful,,,,,,,,, keep an eye on the night sky as they get closer together.

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  133.  It's a head scratcher for sure. 

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  134. lol...actually reminds me of a bear face (as my eyesight has deteriorated over the past couple of years.)

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  135.  thanks for posting!..  Does my horoscope say i'll make money??  :)   oh, i'm a Gemini

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  136. So help me out guys, why was this post less popular than yesterday's or the day before?  Not enough charts?  Not the type of charts everyone wants?  Not enough jokes?  Too confusing?  Not confusing enough?  Not enough Jimmy Carter references? 

    Gimme some guidance as to what people find helpful/useful.

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  137. Bobbing for apples... they do seem to float pretty well...  Could be onto something.   Maybe we should only short companies with "heavy" sounding names.  A company with a name like "Ed's House of Lead Bricks" would probably be ideal.

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  138. damn, have to go back and look at the charts and see if I missed something.

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  139. yw, good move lightening up yesterday.  :)

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  140. we can blame Furrrr (just kidding.) " and it plays out as "you are missing a vital piece of information" during Mercury retrograde." n

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  141. Huh? I thought the article was great. Concise, to the point, clear as a bell, and all the charts understandable. 
    Quel probleme? 

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  142. Plus this part:  Since we're moving into the earth grand trine with Jupiter, Venus, Pluto and Mars next week, you should stay alert to possibilities of things getting accomplished only to be revised later.

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  143. i enjoy all the posts n charts  PL..     lots of the stuff you post is awesome yet new to me also.. that why i like it.   i'm determined to make some nice moves this year.  not easy..    here is a chart from Abagail Doolittle ( just giving credit to her article/charts :)  click on the red  'PDF' in upper right of article.  i think you posted a  BPSPX chart but cant remember..  here it is compared to VIX and SPX..  i thought it was interesting

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  144. din-din; be back later
    PL this post was fine, people are getting exhausted without a knowledge of  long term direction.  Plus,  don't you love those pluses, that Mercury Uranus conjunction is an ants on the brain sleepless scenario.

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  145. C'mon guys, that's just astro-speak for "buy the rumour, sell the news!"

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  146. Yes, I've posted the BPI charts a number of times.  Usually post the SPINDU, but same thing.

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  147. Tell me about it as to exhausted.  :/

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  148.  cool.  oh and didnt you say you had a studio? was that for recording music?   do you know Bob Rock?

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  149. PL, today's post was great. No complaints. Maybe it was quiet because your readers were too busy counting their profits after following the patterns.

    Continue to call out healthy reminders for people not to get too biased and that there are always possibilities. Which taken to heart should always encourage one to implement good trading guidelines. 

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  150. Just a waiting game for the market to show its hand.  Gun shy of the liquidity whippin'.  You said cash is a position, well, the equivalent is a quiet comment day.

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  151. Always alert for lo mano furtivo.

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  152. I will sound like a broken record (do they make those anymore?), but the fact that you cover big count to small count is very helpful for me.  You also cover a wide spectrum of audience with the ability to go from layman's terms to TA lexicon.  You do it in a way that one can infer what you are talking about even if they are not familiar with certain TA terms.

    PS - I haven't forgotten about my promise to put together a short glossary for newbies.  Still working on it and should have it done by month's end.

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  153. I can't say why this post was less popular.  It had no shortcomings IMO.  Maybe yesterday was such an exciting day that today was just the rest after the spring finally releasing.  It was 'relief' in to finally see the market follow the TA.  So, today everyones just kinda hangin'.  FWIW

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  154. And 66% isn't even legit.  Regulations state 75% is required.  The fact that Greece (and the Eurocrats) are trying to pull this stunt using a 66% threshold is a slap in the face to the entire bond market.

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  155. Pretzel to be honest I truly think it's nothing more than people simply forgetting to click it.  All your posts are outstanding.  I would never refrain from clicking the like on your posts because I might think today's entry wasn't as good as yesterdays.  I'm deadly serious about this and I would urge you not to read too much into it.  In other words, no worries man, they're all outstanding.

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  156. I do have a studio, though it's in pieces at the moment.  Haven't done much recording lately.  Never heard of Bob Rock.  I have heard of Fraggle Rock, though -- any relation?

    Fer fun, here's another one of my old songs -- this one is a guitar-driven instrumental.

    http://www.acidplanet.com/components/embedfile.asp?asset=158823|1&embed=1&t=3884

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  157. 1) charts are awesome, especially the SPX charts with levels and targets.
    2) Sometimes your comments on EWT and the reasons for analysis are confusing, but that is only due to the ignorance of the reader (speaking for myself). It's like that simpsons episode where homer is trying to market a product. the first shot is of homer reading a book titled "advanced marketing", followed by a shot of him reading "basic marketing" and finally reading the dictionary. This just goes with the territory; there's no way you have time to explain the minutia of the theory.
    3) Jokes are pretty funny. that one about building a fence with the DOW cracked me up so much that my wife was looking at me like i was crazy.
    Just keep doing what you're doing. it's f*cking awesome.

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  158. ty MARS, and thanks for the donation.  lol on your message that came with it.  :)

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  159. ty AR.  Just "seeking the voice of the customer" as WhipSawed put it the other day.

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  160.  ...very similar to a Henway.

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  161.  i cant get it to load..  hmmm?  

    Bob produced motley crue,311, bush, the offspring, Aerosmith, Bon Jovi, Cher, The Cult, David Lee Roth, Skid Row,etc.. he lives on maui..  mabe you will see him at the store?

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lChk8HzANSs&feature=related

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  162. PL, your article today was really good. It had all the right elements.

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  163. There's a number of other musicians living here, Michael McDonald comes to mind.  Willy Nelson owns a restaurant here, and is often seen hanging out there.  Never been there myself.  Donald Fagen used to hang out here quite a bit, dunno if he's got a house here though -- a girl my wife knows here claims the song "Hey Nineteen" was written about her mom, lol.  

    I've yet to see any of them at the store -- or if I do, I don't recognize them in street clothes. 

    Dunno why it's not loading for you, link seems to work okay when I click it.  Oh well.

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  164. Pretzel,
    Using your RUT chart from yesterday and the guidelines website that katzo7 kindly pointed us to, I came up with some targets for wave 5 of C on the RUT.  I'd appreciate any feedback you or anyone else might have.
    Price Target:1) Wave 4 retraced 49.5% of wave 3 (Wave 4 = 47.61, Wave 3 = 96.24) therefore the possibility of a truncated fifth is not increased.  Of course, it can still happen, especially with the EU situation at 3PM tomorrow.2) Wave 3 was extended (boy was it ever) so W.5 = 38% or 62% of W. 0-3.3) P0 = 705.78; P0 is the beginning of Wave 1, do I have the value right?4) Wave 3 ended at 833.025A) Possible end of 5 => (833.02 - 705.78) * 38% + 785.41 = 833.765B) Possible end of 5 => (833.02 - 705.78) * 62% + 785.41 = 864.30
    Time Target:The guidelines states1A) W.5 > W.4 if W.4 is a simple ABC1B) W.5 < W.4 if W.4 is complex 2) W4 certainly seemed complex to me, so we'll go with 1B though I'm not sure if they are referring to calendar days or trading days.3A) Calendar days: Wave 4 => 32 days; which puts the outside of Wave 5 at April 7th which is a Saturday so we need to use April 6th.3B) Trading days: Wave 4 => 22 days; which puts W.5 at April 5th
    So, in conclusion: Wave 5 could end anytime between now at April 5-6th and could reach as high as 833.76 to 864.30.
    Please let me know what you think and especially any errors I may have made.
    TIA

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  165. PL, if anyone is dissatisfied, you've got a song for them: http://www.bobdylan.com/songs/positively-4th-street

    (why everything you say is wrong) ... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xr3c1o3vQH8

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  166. Thanks, no worries, just wanted to make sure I wasn't missing something.  I didn't take the ndx trade, which i should have, b/c all the overbought indicators on whole market had me escared...So trying to keep the total picture in my head, but i don't think my head is big enough...:)

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  167. truerangeballisticMarch 7, 2012 at 5:48 PM

    PL you are like Pink floyd just starting to make "Dark side of the Moon". All of this is deep and thoughtful stuff. I admit I have visited daily for atleast 4 months now and just started hitting the Like button. My apologies. You have many great albums to come and it is very nice to watch it unfold. thanks again. 

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  168. Euro just spiked up, futures followed...

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  169. I agree with MARS plus market was up today and seems most readers are bearish at the moment so no one was elated with how smart the market made them feel...

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  170. "...what people find helpful"
    just make the market go down and you will get plenty of chatter.

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  171. Awesome.... I almost fell for it....Google saved me. :)

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  172. "Every word is true" :-)

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  173.  A lot of bears totally capitulated and gave up on trading with this rally is my guess.  I can speak for myself at least.  I keep a toe in the water only now.  Very trigger shy after this rally, until the market starts acting like something of what I would consider "more reasonable".

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