Amazon

Wednesday, March 14, 2012

SPX Update: That About Sums It Up...

Well, yesterday cleared up the counts quite nicely.  The bullish trade trigger at 1374 elected and from there, the market pretty much traded straight up with zero drawdown.  That trigger targets 1408. 

We now have solid confirmation that wave (iv) did indeed complete at 1340.  Preliminary targets for (v) are 1432-1465. 

The dollar also rallied yesterday, proving once again that markets aren't always correlated.

Straight to the charts.  Since everything has clarified, I can project some likely target zones for each wave.  First the 5-minute chart, and the probable target for blue wave 3.


Next the 30-minute chart, for context and the larger wave (v) targets.  If you'll note the RSI momentum has exceeded any so far produced by this rally.  Those looking to short would be advised to take a step back and wait -- moves almost never reverse significantly without first building a momentum divergence.  A divergence exists when prices make new highs, but momentum fails to exceed its old high.  Currently, no divergence exists, which makes higher prices extremely likely.


Next, a couple of Bollinger band charts; one of the SPX, and one of the VIX.  SPX closed outside its upper Bollinger band, which doesn't happen too often; and VIX closed outside its lower.  These signals often indicate that an intermediate top is getting closer.  Once again, I do not expect an immediate top here by any stretch -- I expect higher prices first.



In conclusion, the move appears pretty straightforward, and while not exactly "anticipated," since the signals were a bit conflicted, it's not at all unexpected either.  Once the bullish trade trigger elected, the market declared its intentions and was off to the races without looking back. 

I expect higher prices over the near term, though there should be some 4th wave sideways/down corrections along the way.  The market's next significant turn is unlikely to come until at least the mid-1400's.  After wave 3 completes, targets will become more accurate.  My SWAG right now is 1440.  Trade safe.

387 comments:

  1. morning, PL.  Nice snorkel pics.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Good evening - great work PL. Thanks.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Pretzel, pardon my ignorance, but what does SWAG mean?  What would your timeframe be for 1440?  Thanks!

    ReplyDelete
  4.  Scientific Wild-Ass Guess

    ReplyDelete
  5. some wild ass guess

    ReplyDelete
  6. Out of control this market is...the same thing will happen in the downside...purely and simply because of an inflated liquidity driven bubble...I don't see limit and target to the upside till the day a big hammer will fall on the house of cards...Anytime...

    ReplyDelete
  7. I would guess over the next couple weeks to a month, but I don't usually do time frames.  Price rules all, IMO. 

    ReplyDelete
  8.  Thanks for explaining, that is pretty funny. 

    ReplyDelete
  9. Low in eur/$$ is 1,3029, it is headed down again, a bit all over the place today, at 1,3052, not far from LOD

    ReplyDelete
  10. Christian GustafsonMarch 14, 2012 at 2:33 AM

    1340 + (1267 - 1158) = 1449
    1340 + (1267 - 1158) * .618 = 1407

    ReplyDelete
  11. Dumb question but, what happens if I click the "i'm a troll" checkmark button?

    ReplyDelete
  12. You will start using a FLUX program and invent the Super8. Oh wait, never mind.

    ReplyDelete
  13. In addition to the above targets, it's also possible to have:

    1340 + (1267 - 1158) * 1.618 = 1516

    ReplyDelete
  14. Eyebrows are going up as well as the prices.

    ReplyDelete
  15. Awesome...HS Pretzaman...I'm goin' long...prepare for meltdown in 3....2....

    ReplyDelete
  16. Your head explodes.  That's how I've been limiting the troll population.  BWAAAHAHAHAHA!

    ReplyDelete
  17. I do sometimes use only EW formulas, but I use other things as well when arriving at targets.  :)

    ReplyDelete
  18. morning PL! good stuff! I am going long on any dip. 

    ReplyDelete
  19. That's funny, but too true to the trading world. Expect the unexpected.

    ReplyDelete
  20. Dollar trying to get something going here... needs to break 80.8 first...

    ReplyDelete
  21. Thank you for your guidance PL. You're like an air traffic controller, or eye in the sky for us neophytes.

    ReplyDelete
  22. Weird having the market open at 3:30 a.m. again.  It's much better at this hour, I'm still half-awake instead of bleeding from my eyeballs.  Just have to get used to having an hour less each day to get things ready.

    ReplyDelete
  23. Good morning PL, thank you for your time and commitment, great work, one question, is the green count from yesterday's post still in play, if so what are the odds and what spx price would nullify it, yesterday I believe you stated "b" go as high as 1393 would yesterday's close 1395.95 be too high? TIA

    ReplyDelete
  24. Seriously, maybe AR clicked that button by accident one day, and then was forever more cursed wth Disqus zaps. Very interesting feature.

    ReplyDelete
  25. Green count is out.  Rally's way too strong for a b-wave, and has retraced too much of a.

    ReplyDelete
  26. My usual shift was 3am-3pm....it's the best of both worlds for getting things done except that you really learn to appreciate sleep.

    ReplyDelete
  27. Strong Super8 bearish signal.

    ReplyDelete
  28. I posted the details yesterday. Do you subscribe to updates via email?

    ReplyDelete
  29. No, it would be too much clutter. I will read yesterday's thread. I hope PL gets a new discussion format that's easier to navigate. Thank you.

    ReplyDelete
  30. RE clutter - I use a distinct email account for this stuff, then just delete the hundreds of email at the end of the day.

    ReplyDelete
  31. So try to get a good price to short before 10:00, then turn around and go long at 10:52. Not trading advice of course.

    ReplyDelete
  32. AAPL headed for 600 today?

    ReplyDelete
  33. Trading DX is *not* for the faint of heart last night/today.  I've managed to limit myself to a small loss, but it's been whipsaw city.

    ReplyDelete
  34.  good morning. i'm trying out the inflight internet also heading home to
    LAX..  is it true that  Tvix n UVXY is not pointing straight down ??  nerves perking up as market pumps up. ?  i must be getting lack of oxygen..  :)  will see how day goes..  battery getting low :(      good luck everyone

    ReplyDelete
  35. Probably straight sideways from here. See 2/9 for analogy.

    ReplyDelete
  36. TVIX has bounced back up to 13.77.

    ReplyDelete
  37.  AAPL is on fire on rumors of iTV. AAPL's Chinese contractors inadvertently gave a jaw-dropping preview of the eye-popping gadget. It is going to be another blockbuster.

    ReplyDelete
  38. And all along I thought it was the boxes of ritzy promo goodies that he picked up at the Oscars!
    $-)

    ReplyDelete
  39.  indeed..  it has some fight..  Anyone able to pull up yesterdays short data on TVIX and UVXY ?  the volume was insane . thanks in advance..

    ReplyDelete
  40. TVIX up ~2%
    UVXY negative
    That TVIX premium is something else

    ReplyDelete
  41. Jaw dropped, eye popped ... I need a doctor. LMAO

    ReplyDelete
  42. Super8 is showing reversal. Get out the short and go long immediately. Not trading advice.

    ReplyDelete
  43. The short interest on both TVIX and UVXY have increased significantly, esp. for UVXY. Looking at the info on Barrons.com, which update the short interest every month. By the end of Feb, short interest on UVXY has increased by over 600% and 100% for TVIX (4 Million shares were sold short) I can only imagine that number is even higher now. The day of short squeeze will come, and revenge will be sweet. Those guys have been riding an easy wave since Oct.

    ReplyDelete
  44.  Not sure if they will use the iTV, which has a bad rap. The new Apple TV is entirely different and game changing. AAPL's Chinese manufacturers are gearing up for Christmas unveiling.

    ReplyDelete
  45. Great post as always PL.  

    Any veterans out there watching the RUT or SLV?  Curious if the recent action has changed the last set of targets.  The RUT hit an all time high last year so there seems to be a lot of resistance to go much higher.  I'm very new to EW so I'm trying to find a target to get out of some long IWM.  Thanks

    ReplyDelete
  46.  thanks..  c38

    ReplyDelete
  47. That explains it. Thank you

    ReplyDelete
  48. contango is a pounding..  futures are extremely high as from the cash vix.. big bets being played on both sides.. Jamie T. is back..  i need to study this when i get home.. battery gone.. thanks PL for great charts

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vjTzN8lUQyU&feature=plcp&context=C4d13939VDvjVQa1PpcFP8gF6YbVbpVy4YB9mvfz9U3bbEUuLtU7s%3D

    ReplyDelete
  49. SLV has a head and shoulders formation with $33.50 for right and left shoulders and $36.44 for the head which projects to $27.62.   ZSL which is the double inverse of SLV shows a cup and handle formation with spread triple top breakout at $ 10.57

    ReplyDelete
  50. Interesting, and somewhat technical/nerdy note on leading vs lagging indicators from John Hussman.  (It was posted Monday and I have only now gotten around to reading it.  Hope I am not doubling up this info from someone else):

    "..given the deterioration in the inferred (leading) economic condition between
    October and December, it follows that we would expect to see a clear
    deterioration in observable (lagging) economic variables over the next 8-12 weeks.  The preliminary expectation would be for
    continued positive payroll growth in March (roughly 50,000-70,000 jobs)
    and a shift to net job losses in April."

    http://hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc120312.htm

    ReplyDelete
  51. Pretty sure Uncle Buck is on the verge of completing an ending diagonal.  Could be a larger correction coming soon...

    ReplyDelete
  52.  Pardon my ignorance Dust Devil, but what are you referring to when you mention 'Super8'?

    ReplyDelete
  53. Thanks for this, sandyone44.

    ReplyDelete
  54. Another great post PL - it seems redundant to say each day, but your calls have been spot on - "BLUE BOXES" anyone!

    Couple things I'm watching pretty close with respect to gold - surprise, surprise:
    1. Either decoupling from equities here or pointing the way down - leaning toward a decoupling and deep correction but time will tell.
    2. First "crude" chart is of gold over the past 4 years. Gold seems to be following the path of the 34% correction back in 2008. That test of the 300 day average back in December, seems to indicate a retest of at least the 300 MA - so a date with $1600 could be in order. A convincing break there and Wowza!
    3. Another chart is the ole' Dow/Gold ratio from the past 12 year bull run. what strikes me is that over this time as the ratio has been ratcheting down, the bounces up from lows have only violated the previous bounce back by very miniscule amounts. I say this as we sit out about 7.85 (a close at the current levels would push that level closer to 8) and the previous daily high close on the last rebound from lows was 7.94. I would maybe give it 'til a slight tick above 8.00 and then something has to give. As a bull gold nuthead this certainly raises an eyebrow here.
    4. And finally (I know you guys are happy) is a long term Dow/Gold chart. I strongly still believe that the gold bull is not over - however, this does not mean we aren't due a correction back to the healthy trendline (circa 1974-1976) before a larger gold run or who knows, maybe it'll end - say it ain't so!

    Anyway, thanks for indulging my craziness here, not really making any conclusions merely saying that my interest get perked up at these levels. 

    ReplyDelete
  55. Apple is now bigger than the entire Us retail sector.

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/its-official-apple-now-bigger-entire-us-retail-sector

    ReplyDelete
  56. Very interesting piece. Thanks for pointing this out.

    ReplyDelete
  57. jbg, I remember you saying you had some UUP.  Might want to watch that carefully here.  If the dollar can't hold onto 80.50, watch out for a fast trip back to at least 79.50ish.  It's just off the high for the move, but I think that *might* be it for now.  If it can create a material break of that high, all bets are off, but I'm thinking ending diagonal 5th wave here, prolly all done now.

    ReplyDelete
  58. I posted the details yesterday. Do you subscribe to updates via email?

    ReplyDelete
  59. ty KB03.  I don't mind hearing nice things "redundantly."  :)

    ReplyDelete
  60. thanks for the insight, I think I'll hold onto my long APR 12 SLV 30 puts a little longer then.

    ReplyDelete
  61. Super8 is breaish and since it's past 10:52, time to quit long and go short at ES 1389. Got whipsawed there.

    ReplyDelete
  62. indeed. as said a couple of weeks ago
    "death cross looms on gld. needs to get BELOW 200 day tho. nice 3 year ride of goldie cross


     http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GLD&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p03127724593

    ReplyDelete
  63. Well, scratch that.  :) 

    Something else going on.

    ReplyDelete
  64. AAPL

    http://www.screencast.com/users/katzo7/folders/Jing/media/5d432d66-5aeb-4382-b325-da1e574cd566

    ReplyDelete
  65. Thanks PL. I will watch.

    ReplyDelete
  66. TVIX up 5%, $VIX up .61%

    ReplyDelete
  67. I went long UUP as well. I see UUP that it had bounced off the 50 SMA (resistance) on 2/6 and 3/7 (pretty much spot on). Broke through on 3/9. The SMA is now 22.19, current UUP at 22.40. Im thinking of putting in a stop loss at 22.15, in case the 50 SMA acts as support. I realize UUP is a derivative of DXY and using the 50 SMA is pretty simple analysis, but the market did respect the correlated DXY price as resistance twice since mid Feb, so Im thinking this could be a good way to let the position run, but get out virtually even .

    ReplyDelete
  68. do you mean DXY can rally past 80.5 now? :)

    ReplyDelete
  69. What do you think is the target for this gold correction? 

    ReplyDelete
  70. :) 

    I see you didn't test to see if your head would explode.  :D

    ReplyDelete
  71.  No, I've been reading Pretzels daily post for a while, but never read any of the comments until yesterday and today.  Thanks.

    ReplyDelete
  72. .... Look at that S car go.... I mean ... Look at that SLV go..... down to 31.66 as I write...

    ReplyDelete
  73. If not, it's a nest of 1's and 2's.  Very difficult to get a read on at the moment.

    ReplyDelete
  74. PL...I am amazed at the accuracy of EW analysis and principles. Citigroup's first wave down bottomed at $36.76 on June 8, 2011. The third wave down bottomed at $21.40 on October 4, 2011 and now this fourth wave ascent has topped out (at this time) at $37.72 yesterday....four cents away from a violation of the first wave extreme. It's like the wizard behind the curtain.

    ReplyDelete
  75. Astro $.02
    Mercury retrograde:  Fakeouts - TA is inaccurate due to inherent faulty assumptions.

    ReplyDelete
  76. Eur/$$ banging away at the level I mentioned in last thread, 1,3029 LOD It is at 1,3028 now

    ReplyDelete
  77. 300 MA @ $1600 - after that we'll see where she goes. I hold no ST position either way for now though

    ReplyDelete
  78. That is certainly working in the dollar very short term.  :)

    How about this for a monkey wrench?  What if the wave labeled as red 3 is actually wave 5 of an extended fifth wave?  i.e.- yesterday's labels were correct and the little dip *was* wave 4?  That would really screw everything up.  :)

    btw, the decline *does* look impulsive, so there *should* be another leg down after a bounce... unless Mercury is messing with me there too.  :D

    ReplyDelete
  79. Come on guys and gals, let's push these page views to the 1,000,000 mark - PL has promised a full day of "free" access to his work once it's hit! What a great guy ; )

    ReplyDelete
  80. *If* the dollar can hold this breakout, then it could be off to the races.  A nest of 1's and 2's can sometimes look like an ending diagonal.

    ReplyDelete
  81. Now you're talking.  I thought we had a full five finish this morning.  

    ReplyDelete
  82. Do you see it going below 1.3 soon? or even 1.2? :)

    ReplyDelete
  83. UVXY up more than TVIX due to the premium. Whoever picked this up at 23.7ish this morning is smiling now. 

    ReplyDelete
  84. whole number tends to be psychological support also, right?

    ReplyDelete
  85. Are PL and you referring to the dollar or SPX?

    ReplyDelete
  86. http://www.nytimes.com/2012/03/14/opinion/why-i-am-leaving-goldman-sachs.html

    ReplyDelete
  87. PL...based on a previous discussion with you regarding 30 year T-Bond futures.....the measured upside move of $155 would be removed at what breech of the current triangle? Wave a low, or violation of the bottom trendline of the triangle?

    ReplyDelete
  88. Shocker?  NO!  Someone tells what we have all suspected and he will get madee into a trouble maker.
    Neede more people with balls!

    ReplyDelete
  89. http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2012/3/14/vix-below-15-time-to-worry.html

    ReplyDelete
  90. In a true Elliott triangle, wave e should never break wave a.  So a break of the wave a low would indicate it wasn't a triangle, thus all bets would be off.

    ReplyDelete
  91. Re: second chart from yesterday....so you are saying that yesterday's action was red (v) -- all the way in the upper right corner?

    ReplyDelete
  92. This is excellent.  Thanks for posting.

    ReplyDelete
  93. Dually noted...thanks. $133.00 (+/-) it is.

    ReplyDelete
  94. Some how able to get back to -1.6 after holding shorts for 2 days.  Went long and almost back to BE.
    Serious stress out just to be BE.  My foggy cracked magic 8 ball says 1407-8 tops out then turn begins.
    CNBC reported possible power struggle in China, nothing concrete but Commies nervous.

    ReplyDelete
  95. Thank you.  This is excellent.  

    If this is what they do to their clients, think about what they do to the public at large through their market making and trading desks.

    ReplyDelete
  96. NO, I'm not "saying" that.  I'm saying it isn't completely impossible, and was doing a "what if?" to go with Furr's idea that things wouldn't be what they seem.  So it's within the realm of possibility, though unlikely.  Nothing's ever guaranteed in this market...

    ReplyDelete
  97. That's a big fat MAYBE, so don't go letting the horses out of the barn just yet.

    ReplyDelete
  98. Greg Smith should be commended.  He should start his own asset management firm.

    ReplyDelete
  99. PL,
    IS the 1407-08 area a possible top with EW?  Or do things not flow that way with recent move up?
    Thx

    ReplyDelete
  100. PL...one last question today. I've heard the axiom "the flag flies at half mast" and it appears that GAZ is sporting such a flag. If the axiom is correct, does that suggest GAZ could double in price from it's current $5.00 ????

    ReplyDelete
  101. Meaqns time for more Viagara!  Sorry, couldn't resist.

    ReplyDelete
  102. Already posted on last thread by Furrrr.

    ReplyDelete
  103. Good afternoon all.  For those that follow RUT, it looks like IWM is testing a trendline of support

    ReplyDelete
  104. hard to say, watching it carefully

    ReplyDelete
  105. possible, I am watching the same thing, whether the EW1 and 2 goes in now

    ReplyDelete
  106.  I'm not.....I'm 80% cash right now....horses are being groomed at present. I'm very calm. aaaouummmmm

    ReplyDelete
  107. Itz kool...just asking...just clarifying this feeble mind.

    ReplyDelete
  108. thx - we should know soon
    But it does feel like I'm forcing that count a little - would still work better with one more push up.

    ReplyDelete
  109. Big Jim and the twins share your sentiment!

    ReplyDelete
  110. Nothing is impossible.  The counts I published are the most likely, given the available information in the price movement and indicators.  "Most likely" is always just that though.  If I have pocket aces against somebody holding 2-7 off-suit before the flop, I am "most likely" to win... but it doesn't guarantee I will.  :)

    ReplyDelete
  111. Thanks.  Just sold my TF longs, +2, but looking to get back in.

    ReplyDelete
  112. He's welcome at my dinner table.

    ReplyDelete
  113. No, it implies it could go to about 8.40.  You would use the price measurement of the first move and add it to the breakout point -- if you're trying to apply that particular axiom.  More conservatively, one would measure the triangle width (about 1.97 in that case) and add that to the breakout point for a target.

    ReplyDelete
  114. I don't like my 2-7 but as Jim Carey said in Dumb and Dumber "so I might have a chance". 
    Thanks

    ReplyDelete
  115. watching for potential mid-afternoon down move, tgts 1380, then possibly 1371 ESM2

    ReplyDelete
  116. lol -- "So you're saying I've got a chance!"

    ReplyDelete
  117. Thanks PL.....over and out!

    ReplyDelete
  118. Yep, pretty much as enigmatic as Uncle Buck right now, just in reverse.

    ReplyDelete
  119. Didn't have the guts to stick with my short there - oh well, initial target was reached, move on soldier!

    ReplyDelete
  120. WHat you said.  I have only seen movie 50 times.

    ReplyDelete
  121. AAPL target price was up'ed by MS to 720 and maintained that it could hit 960. Weekly Calls are going to infinity.

    And beyond .... :)

    ReplyDelete
  122. Hi Pretz,

    Thank you again for all your great work. Another great article. Was wondering what your take on SLV is given this morning's action. Until earlier this morning, I thought we were in wave 2 of 1, after the higher wave 2 completed at 31.5. Now it seems we may have just completed a double zig zag?? Not sure though; counting corrections is still quite a challenge for me. Any insight would be appreciated.

    ReplyDelete
  123. lol -- is mine actually right?  I've actually only seen it once.  Maybe one and a half times, if I watched it again on cable. 

    ReplyDelete
  124. Analog of Silver...FYI

    ReplyDelete
  125. Silver looks pretty ugly at the moment.  If that head and shoulders works out, it could head a lot lower.

    ReplyDelete
  126. 1380 cash?  or is that plus 6.5 for cash?

    ReplyDelete
  127.  That actually reminds me of something I've been meaning to ask someone. What's a good rule of thumb for when to move from one futures contract period to the next?

    ReplyDelete
  128. I was seven days to early with my bull run, but that movement - its inner structure - what we see now, is what I thought possible. And, it is like a weather ballon, up to the sky.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bluQ4eOeBwo

    right now it broke the clouds and some time it will go up... but then the ballon will burst and send the lego spaceship down again. But until then to da moon.

    ReplyDelete
  129. There is a consensus date to roll over from the nearest to the next nearest contract. It is not mandatory, so really, there is not cast in stone rule. But for ES, it is the Friday before the expiration Friday, minus one day, so it's the Thursday. It rolls at the 8:30 Central Time session - in other words, it begins at that time - on that Thursday.

    ReplyDelete
  130. That was pretty cool...Thanks Lena

    ReplyDelete
  131. add +4 points to my ES for cash

    ReplyDelete
  132. My son came in and saw this... guess what I get to do this weekend. Downside... I have to find one of those balloons... upside, it will clear some of the Lego's out of the house!

    ReplyDelete
  133. That would hit your 61.8% retracement, right?

    ReplyDelete
  134. Why I am Leaving The Empire

     http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/society/why-i-am-leaving-the-empire%252c-by-darth-vader-201203145007/

    Joe

    ReplyDelete
  135. Excellent idea....can I send ya some.

    ReplyDelete
  136. Alright, time for me to get some rest.  All work and no sleep makes Pretzel a dull boy.

    GL all.  :)

    ReplyDelete
  137. Thx, needed the perspective  :)

    ReplyDelete
  138. aapl parabolic spx parabolic.  no crack, no short

    ReplyDelete
  139. this might be the start of the mid aft. move down (ST) I mentioned earlier. truly, it came so fast and without the help of my usual indicators I missed it.
    a break of 89 breaks some ST up waves

    ReplyDelete
  140. you are now removing/altering your posts, you took out no break, no short?

    ReplyDelete
  141. next drop setting up.....

    ReplyDelete
  142. adding chart with explanation. no sinister motive. dont care what happens today or tomorrie. trend is what im talkin bout. too much bruce spingsteen im seeing

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZarmRLa2p9Q

    ReplyDelete
  143. Are you thinking abc for a iv or more, katz?

    ReplyDelete
  144. "Our pets heads are falling off!"

    ReplyDelete
  145. i just put up my explanation WHICH YOU JUST DELETED>  U DONT SEEM TPO LIKE MY BULLISH CALLS IT SEEMS

    ReplyDelete
  146. previous post "watching for potential mid-afternoon down move, tgts 1380, then possibly 1371 ESM2" plus perfectly timed contrarian call.

    eur/$$ getting back into alignment, watch that for clues

    ReplyDelete
  147. It has nothing to do with bullish calls, it has to do with ethical unabridged comments changed to alter comments, hiding wrong posts.

    ReplyDelete
  148. how am i editing my post 3 minutes after i make it to add a chart and explanation. ok thanks for the moderation. u can accuse me of something and i cant rebutt. i will just post when mr. pretzeldent is awake. he is fair and balanced. gluck

    ReplyDelete
  149. ugh, I finally decide to put stops on my shorts after the morning drop, come back to the computer and see them triggered followed by the market dropping back down. Its like everytime i set stops, they're like magnets for the market.

    ReplyDelete
  150. yup buy any dip to 1380. gluck.

    ReplyDelete
  151. Long 1 ES at 85.5, Stop at 84

    ReplyDelete
  152. Stop moved to 84.5

    ReplyDelete
  153. They're on to you...

    ReplyDelete
  154. Where mah yacht at? Oh, dat's right - it's in the shop.

    ReplyDelete
  155. no crack no short. or in simple terms. buy the dip. if you ask a ? please let me rebut ty

    ReplyDelete
  156. Out of long ES, at 86.5 , VIX looks to want to go higher...

    ReplyDelete
  157. careful, if this cannot get above 89 it might break down suddenly

    ReplyDelete
  158. I am already out.  I don't like the way the VIX or VXX is acting.

    ReplyDelete
  159. was away and saw AAPL went parabolic almost hit 600, now on its way down, is it the final blowoff top, or more upside to come? UVXY is all over the place today, 15 cents move in seconds. Shorts are covering for sure. It is up 2 times more than TVIX, well to be fair, when it was down it was sometimes more than 2 times TVIX too.... Let's see if it can get to $27 today.

    ReplyDelete
  160. retrace to 1370's is healthy for bull

    ReplyDelete
  161. If we don't have a stock crash soon, the bond market might crash first....dilemma dilemma for the FED, I guess you just cannot have both ways, thought they should have known this long time ago.

    ReplyDelete
  162. aapl quad witch

    ReplyDelete
  163. Yes, I'm  watching TLT.   Just hit 111.   Below 110, in danger zone.  Below 105, here we go!

    ReplyDelete
  164. tgt 80, then maybe 71 es

    ReplyDelete
  165. Furrrr, this is based on your 1 minute chart with my yellow line showing about when you posted. This is what I was looking at. IMO the 1 minute will throw you curves, I like the 3 or 5 minute better. It tells a better story. Just trying to help.

    http://www.screencast.com/users/katzo7/folders/Jing/media/69e26692-6842-4a61-a599-83cb1d42c37c

    ReplyDelete
  166. I just picked up a bit of TBT

    ReplyDelete
  167. Thanks.  I agree - I usually back out and look at 3 and 5 minute because the pattern becomes more "obvious." 
    I was charting the 1 minute because that's what PL uses to capture those small five wave moves for the 1 wave etc.

     

    ReplyDelete
  168. If the economy is "said" to be improving and downside risks are "said" to be solved, isn't it normal that bonds would sell off as everyone searches for growth in stocks?  What is normal?  What constitutes a crash?

    ReplyDelete
  169.  Is this what you mean by SPX going parabolic?

    ReplyDelete
  170. doesn't look parabolic to me.

    ReplyDelete
  171. Usually it takes TLT a long time to move 5 points.   However, TLT has dropped 5 points since Monday this week.

    IMHO, with the Greek default / CDS triggering last week, banks have been dumping PIIGS debts along with other government debts like Treasuries.  They need to recapitalize to absorb the losses on Greek debts and to position for potential losses with the rest of the PIIGS debts.

    ReplyDelete
  172. Usually, during the first leg of the bond market decline, money will be rotated into other assets like stocks.   But during the next leg of the decline,  people would tend to sell off everything.   Take a look at the bond market crash of 1994 and you'll see that relationship with stocks and gold.

    If & when the bond market crashes a modest 20%-25%, it involves a huge amount of money because it's about 4x-5x larger than the stock market.  If it's gonna crash this time, the negative impact may be unpredictable because interest rate is practically at zero and therefore there is no room for soft-landing the crash.

    ReplyDelete
  173. Wow, don't watch the market for a day and it goes crazy.  I am opening small long IT position to capture rest of wave (v), will add more in coming days/weeks.  We will see spx 1430 before we see 1360.

    Am still short Eur, think that is a good IT/LT trade, Eur/USD will be 1.20 in a year, if not sooner.  Europe way sicker than USA, even if Greece / Portugal manage to stay in Euro.

    All is IMO, not trading advice.

    ReplyDelete
  174. Looks like PL's second chart bounced off red wave 4, which would mean more upside to come tomorrow...

    ReplyDelete
  175. AAPL is in FULL parabolic mode.  600 seems likely for tomorrow.  The question is what happens then?

    ReplyDelete
  176. That's great! The sooner it flies and crashes, the better for all of us. I want it to crash by April. Then, everybody will be scared and stop losses will be triggered everywhere.

    ReplyDelete