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Friday, April 27, 2012

SPX Update: Bears Need to Get 'er Done, or Go Home

Yesterday's count expected further upside, which is what the market provided.  At this stage, there's just not much to add.  This remains one of the more challenging structures I've had to decipher in some time, but if the expanded flat interpretation is correct, the market should find a top in the near future.  If the alternate bullish count is correct, then the SPX is probably on its way to 1460-1470.  There's been little to add confidence to either direction. 

Viewed with a more traditional technical analysis eye, the market appears to be breaking out from a trading range/base, which would be considered bullish.  Of course, if the market does whipsaw back into that range, then it would not be a surprise to see it drop rapidly, as oft-traded ranges offer little in the way of support or resistance, except at the edges of the range.

The very short-term structure is extremely difficult to decipher, and the rally may be complete or nearly so, or may have another down/up left in it.  Watch for a bounce off the top of the old trading range.





One of the reasons I remain in favor of the more bearish count is the COMPQ, which appears to have formed a clear 5-wave decline.





It's worth keeping in mind that if this is indeed a larger second wave retracement rally, then bullish sentiment is to be expected. Second waves "want" to be bull markets.

In conclusion, there are no magic bullets that I can find at the moment.  At this point, it's up to Old Man Market to either prove or disprove the bear case.  If the preferred count is correct, then there should be a reversal brewing soon.  Trade safe.

426 comments:

  1. Morning.   Hope your life is returning to normal.

    Newer readers might not know what fractal you refer to in the first chart.

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  2. I'm not surprised the potential gap filled overnight.  I am surprised the disappointing GDP and Italian auction didn't reignite something.

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  3.  See yesterday's post regarding the fractal.  Nice chart shows it.

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  4. PL and/or Katzo:
     I was reading in the F&P book (p. 60) that movements above minor degree can always satisfactorily be counted (conform to EW).  Then it mentions that hourly readings 'nearly perfectly' match for detailing waves and minute to minute is often enough to reflect EW principle accurately.  The book also noted how EW doesn't work so good in leveraged markets, like futures.  So my questions are this: can EW principles really be expected to be held to on time frames as small is 1 or 5 minutes, and for vehicles like the ES Katzo trades?  Are the smaller time frames given more latitude to not strictly hold to EW guidelines?  Thanks guys.

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  5. EW works great at all time frames.  Either it's a fractal, or it isn't.  ;)

    As far as leveraged markets, there is definitely some degree of wave distortion in such markets, IMO.  You have to compensate for it to some degree.

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  6. FTSE just pingd the stated target of Kumo2, the lower edge of Cloud as posted earlier. INDU has not yet reached 13266 but SPX has already poppped above 1405 and closed the gap... quo vadis from here?

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  7. The shorter the time frame the more the count is subject to failure or distortion, that is why I verify my counts & direction with the 3, 5, 15, 120, and DAY EW counts (Superposition of waves). I also use TLs, if they are broken that provides another piece of usable info. I go about it differently than others I think.

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  8.  Thanks for the response guys, appreciate it.

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  9. That is the question.  Katzo, you still holding on to those ES shorts?

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  10. Only 80 INDU points to the last high. I'm gonna guess a bear-capitulating 13425-13450 to take us into wave 3 down. But that may as well be the square root of pi the way I trade.

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  11. One would expect "latin" from a doctor.......

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  12. INDU just now, text book a b c  .... looks like.  (leveraged 24 hr chart but seems to work 'properly' most of the time)

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  13. Quote of the day: "Bernake said he had our backs covered, buy, buy, buy on dips." a NYSE floor trader. :)

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  14. May be due to the net JPY5 trillion injection by the BOJ.....

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/overnight-sentiment-zen-after-initial-revulsion

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  15. Quote of the day: "Bernanke said he had our backs covered, please buy buy buy on dips." a NYSE floor trader. :)

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  16. Good morning K7, I posted earlier the FTSE target of 5790, bottom of Cloud, Kumo2 line. It pinged 5789.79, those pesky rounding errors did me again!   LOL

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  17. Definition: (from basics of Elliott Wave)
    Flat corrections usually retrace less of preceding impulse waves than do zigzags. They participate in periods involving a strong larger trend and thus virtually always precede or follow extensions. The more powerful the underlying trend, the briefer the flat tends to be. Within impulses, fourth waves frequently sport flats, while second waves rarely do.

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  18. SL was 1401, I got out at 1400. Many can tell immediately when a trade is put on if it will be successful from that entry point, I saw it a few minutes after I placed the trade and stopped myself out for a 3/4 point loss.

    We are facing a bullish opening. I am getting 1403 as an EW3 high on the 15 minute ES chart. I will be watching for any spike over that within the 9:30 to 10 am time frame, whether it will break that level by no  more than two points, or whether it will break it and keep on going. That will determine whether I go long or short again.

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  19. Forum vado iterum crucifigi.

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  20. Bears 65% Bulls 35% sentiment
    http://www.forexpros.com/indices/us-spx-500-futures-advanced-chart

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  21. What the DJT is saying
     http://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-market-must-do-to-avoid-sell-signal-2012-04-27?siteid=yhoof2

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  22. very tough read, down to 95-6 ES with a final blast to 1403 around 10 am or down from here. dunno. . . 

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  23. My feeling is you can't trust this little selloff here.  Probably just looking to fill to gap and make new highs.  I am surprised at the how the market gapped up on (take your pick, spain, italy, US GDP).  Seems like the making for new highs before a shock will set in reality.  Gap filled now.

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  24. INDU 400 point fall coming if  wv  'C' just topped out. All the way with LBJ...

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  25. If CVX goes much higher, I'll be "hangin" as well. But not in Rome.

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  26. ES 1403>> 1396 equals 7 points

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  27. square roots and probabilities go hand in hand don't they... but I do hope you're wrong!! I wanna go down... >>>>

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  28. if this rise does not break 1399 ES then it is set up to go down

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  29. Closed out my TZA at $18.29 for a 1.2% gain.  This market sure feels like it did in January:  Bad news? What bad news?

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  30. It is amazing to see a pattern come together before your eyes. I have been tracking SBUX as of late. I had it in a 2nd wave retracement of a LD wave 1 over the past 10 days. Looks like today was W1 of 3 down.

    This EW is amazing! I just need to improve my counting. I will post a chart when able. 

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  31. appears 98 ES held???? we go down??

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  32.  Here is the chart

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  33. Definition: (from basics of Elliott Wave)
    Far more common, however, is the variety called an expanded flat, which contains a price extreme beyond that of the preceding impulse wave. In expanded flats, wave B of the 3-3-5 pattern terminates beyond the starting level of wave A, and  wave C ends more substantially beyond the ending level of wave A.

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  34. CVX didn't hang around to ping 107 did she? Flounced off south, keep going lady, Bob_E loves ya ;)

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  35. rofl.  I feel like I don't read the market.  The market reads me.

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  36. the overnight low MM was 13140, so as INDU usually (but not always) retraces the overnights, we go down for a while longer IMHO, but if forecasting were that easy we'd all be lying on a beach in Maui right? :)

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  37. I'd like mine with fries please, and a side of  'slaw... ;)

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  38. seed change in direction of ES, headed down in general IT. verify with drop in eur/$$. 
    T1 1389-91

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  39. she goin' down Bob_E see post  earlier

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  40. Good morning PL, €/$, rocket fuel ???? shooosh, what gives?

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  41. AAPL falling. It really is time now for AAPL to show its colours, third drop in a row - should be getting swifter and deeper right now, so later we might have some fun.. IMHO, could be wrong of course, we'll see

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  42. Love...is never having to say "you're sorry" 

    Sink that ship good doctor......damn the torpedoes.

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  43. TVIX on the move again.

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  44. INDU strong S/R line at 13216. Underneath now and tested, resisted, so looking good for more down..

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  45. Please sharpen your "quill" good doctor. 

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  46. drop to 89-91 ES coming, w/in 15 minutes.

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  47. out, -1.

    this is still very unclear.

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  48. Bob E have the second MACD divergence on CVX on 15 min chart. If price exceeds 106.80 and MACD is lower it will be time to sell on the MACD rollover and wave count as 5 up completed...... Should appear near EOD or on Monday

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  49. don't know if it will play out - but ... here's a view of the futures - i thought maybe the proposed impulse topped out yesterday...should /ES make a new high above 1306 ... here is a gorgeous proposed ED.

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  50. Hi PL, 

    I have been mulling over a different count that started at 1359. But let me digress and say that making this last correction a Major Wave IV could make some sense. If IV ended at 1359 as an expanded flat then we could have just finished Intermediate i of Major Wave 5 and it looks to me like Minor waves have completed as such
    Minor (1): 1359 to 1376 (17 pts)
    Minor (2): 1376 to 1368 (8 pts)
    Minor (3): 1368 to 1391 (23 pts)
    Minor (4): 1391 to 1385 (7 pts)
    Minor (5): 1385 to 1405 (20 pts)

    Intermediate i: 1359 to 1405 (46 pts)

    Intermediate ii is ongoing

    What invalidates this count?

    We also have channel line resistance through the most recent highs having been tested at 1405. Using the lower blue trend line, I would expect Intermediate II to end near 1382 which would be exactly 50% of the move from 1359 to 1405.

    Pieces are coming together in this manner I believe. Minor (A) may have completed from 1405 to 1397

    Any thoughts?

    Link to chart is below

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=15&yr=0&mn=0&dy=5&id=p76745815682&a=265521022 

    stemphos

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  51. Thanks DRG62......I'm glued to the monitor. Was scrolling through some comments on another blog. Trader was lamenting his $40K loss in TZA. Emotions can be a significant impediment to successful trading. (yes I do go to other boards, but just to read, then return)

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  52. P.S.: The lower channel line shown on the chart is drawn through the most recent lows of 1340 and 1357

    Stemphos

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  53. just looked, she made 106.80. Close enough I suppose, but those darned rounding errors pooped me once again, gonna have to use a new chart, must be worn out-  this one.. Not bad Itchy Mo is she?

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  54. I think you linked the wrong chart.

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  55. ooops Bob_E posted another in wrong place, just below, but INDU Stochs are now 93% which is a strong sell, the others lag.

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  56.  So if I understand correctly now, we are completing wave 5 of 2 with wave 3 down to come.  Is that correct?

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  57.  check your chart/link              correct???

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  58. Here ya go Hannibal...You're "Upside-Down Special" is ready, ketchup on the side (and back, and front, etc)

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  59. Hi Max,

    The link send me to the correct chart. I corrected my P.S. statement regarding the origin of the trend line. It is passing through 1357 and 1370. I just wanted to make it parallel to channel line. 

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  60. if i count it a little different...perhaps this morning was the E wave ??  1406 is certainly a juicy target.

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  61. Here is an expanded chart for more clarity

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=15&yr=0&mn=0&dy=15&id=p93212476018&a=265521022 

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  62. Good doctor.....when there is time within your busy day please "Itchy" SLV on a weekly basis. I'm thinking a run up to the cloud and then a collapse to $20-21.

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  63. That's affirmative 4runnerguy, you are clear to land on runway 3 heading south. Over.

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  64. Something must be wrong. When I click on the link in my post, it shows me the right chart. Sorry for the confusion. 

    Back to the drawing board for me

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  65. tricky because it is trending mostly sideways on the daily, but weekly looks to have resistance  above towards the end of May when it runs into Cloud... spot on chum ! But IM won't tell you anyhting else at the moment, other than it should bounce off ala CVX... probably

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  66. Hola mi amigo Scoti apestoso. La manipulación por parte de JP Morgue de hoy me está volviendo loca. Todas esas putas corruptos deben estar en la cárcel de por vida. Y así debe a sus hijos.

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  67. wouldn't THAT be nice, end of, down we go... we'll see. It has to happen one way or the other.. ;)

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  68.  That's a big 10-4.

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  69. Let's try this another way

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  70.  ES 1391-1402 very important near term range, imo. I follow your work, good stuff!

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  71. We know that 3rd waves can not overlap first wave tops, so safe play is to wait until CVX drops below wave one peak of $103.26. 30 min macd has crossed at + 0.74 and turning down.

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  72. Recent rally may have counted as a double-zigzag.  If bears are going anywhere, they better go now or it's new highs I suspect.

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  73. On Monday morning IWM was sitting at 78.25.  Max Pain for IWM for today's options expiry was 82.  Was there any doubt where IWM would be driven to?  Really, as long as JP Morgan is allowed to participate in the equities markets this type of activity in equities is virtually guaranteed 90% of the time.   Nothing else matters.  News doesn't matter.  What the FED might have to say doesn't matter.  What the bond market is doing doesn't matter.  It doesn't matter what's happening within many of the superb measurements of the appetite for risk.  The only thing that matters is that JPM earns their admitted $25 million per day in the equities markets and that they don't have a losing day in any given quarter (also admitted by JPM).  Just saying.

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  74. Your updates are most timely.....thank you.

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  75. I posted the chart in a post below, but here it again

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  76. Excellent...thank you good doctor. Expecting one more good selloff in SLV....hope you and Itchy help me fine tune it.

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  77.  How is that 'Max Pain' level for an option calculated?  Thanks.

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  78. Good thing we're not on PL's Espanol Channel, you'd be banned. Tomorrow is Saturday, so your first observation will be rectified (lol). Second point...yes...hence my aversion to PMs at the moment. And finally...it ain't the kids fault that they were sired by crooks. I'm still dreaming of a $RUT H&S. :)

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  79. Add that to the fact that central banks are now purchasing stocks -"The BOJ increased by a small amount purchases of exchange-traded funds and trust
    funds investing in property," and you end up with really messed up charts. See the whole article on BOJ "Easing". http://www.cnbc.com/id/47197258

    Yesterday I jumped into TZA, then jumped out because AMZN and Starbucks came out with better than expected earnings, yet the aftermarket went down. OK... that was a sell the news event I guess. My Bad.

    But today we are going up on lower than expected GDP and Lower than expected Consumer Sentiment.. confuddling!

    Manipulated markets are a pain to trade IT... the only way I've been able to make any $ is really ST trades

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  80. The best explanation is right on the Max Pain site.  Scroll down on that page to see what it takes to inflict the "maximum pain" on those who purchased options from the banks.  And it "is" the banks who sell the vast majority of the options, both puts and calls, because it is those same banks who have enough power and are corrupt enough to drive the markets to where ever is required to inflict that pain.  In any other business it's called "theft".  It's the exact same principal as selling mortgages to innocent Chinese victims then betting against those same Chinese investors that those same mortgages would default.  I look upon the Max Pain calculations as a meter for corruption.  It's so blatant that I'll probably go to my grave never knowing why these criminals have been allowed to conduct this type of activity for over two decades now and have yet to be hung for crimes of treason against the nation.

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  81. Man,  if you wade into crocodile-infested waters with both feet, don't complain if you lose 'em both! 

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  82. For now... short-term

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  83. Thnx. Am following closely. As much as my 4-legged attorneys will allow.

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  84. Cuz nobody (sane that is) will listen. 

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  85. You could be right.  The market internals have corrected enough (downward) that I'd say they're certainly in a position to support higher prices.

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  86. "...it ain't the kids fault that they were sired by crooks".

    Yeah I know, but when cleaning out a nest of rats it's always best to get the babies as well.  You know, just to make sure their type never produce any more progeny.

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  87. your labels work - except...i wouldn't call those minor and intermediate waves - maybe minuette and minute

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  88. Yeah, I guess you're right...The neighbor just took care of some wascally wabbits using that protocol.

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  89. No doubt.  I share your pain on how blatant this is and yet nothing has and most likely never will be done about it.  To add insult to injury, whenever the powers that be decide to, the market can be dropped 20% in under 10 days (see August 2011...) for the same reasons that were being ignored while the market levitates.

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  90.  Thanks.  So that is saying that whatever they calc. the 'max pain' # at is where you would expect the issue to settle (be pretty close) by expiration? 

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  91. Bob---CVX--- looks like B wave starting back up for today

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  92. Take a short break and read this humorous article about White House, Fed and Treasury on Delusionol.....

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/guest-post-new-drug-choice-white-house-federal-reserve-and-treasury-delusionol-tm

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  93.  Any idea what the MaxPain # is for SPY for today and May 19th?

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  94. Looks like the RUT Rocket it hitting apogee right at the number...those bastadges.

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  95. you must be watchin the 1 min time interval.....you're hooked now!

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  96. I think this is a coordinated efforts to manipulate the market.

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  97. FYI....there is the "possibility" of CVX having gone thru an a-b-c = A down from the $112.28 high (5-3-5) to $100.51and we could be putting in a B (3-3-5) followed by the C wave down which would unfold in a 5 wave decline. In this scenario we'd see a lower low for CVX, but not the three wave we are planning on. We'll know for sure at the end of this wave down below $100.51.

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  98. market is not going to show it's hand today, imo.. prob will gap up/down over the wknd out of the 1391-4102 ES range.  given the setup & where the DX is, my guess is Down w/ a dollar rally. 
    Enjoy your wknd, all

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  99. No, we have to pay for that more accurate info known as "Current Pain".  I don't pay for it.  Mind you I don't pay for sex either.  The way I see it is that if they don't want to give it to me for free I don't want it, lol.

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  100. I have a difficult time viewing these charts as "bullish"

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  101. Since I seem to be on a bit of a rant today against market activity that never happened before the repeal of the Glass-Stiegal Act, I might as well show you a chart I just posted on my own blog.  If you're interested in the little rant that went along with it you can just click my name and that'll take you to the post where it was added this morning.  Just scroll down since I usually just add charts to a post as the week progresses, rather than making a new post every time I have something I might want to share with the world. 

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  102. Please get back on your meds :).  Everybody knows just BTFD and don't ask any questions.  The Beard will hit P if you don't.  See Ray_1's post below for the proper med.  Talk to your doctor about upping your dose if you're already on it.

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  103. NDX just had the thrust up from a nice 4th wv triangle, so we know what happens next.... Should do. Maybe.

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  104. If $RUT 11:00-12:30 wasn't algo'd, I'd be very surprised....just sayin'

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  105. Yes.  With the caveat that quite often they will run the market up to that level until perhaps an hour left in the day.  By then all the holders of the options (or enough of them) have either capitulated and dumped those options at a 90% loss (and the other half will expire worthless anyway), then they'll let the market tank.  I fully expect it to tank in the final hour or minutes today.  I could be wrong but let's see what happens.  I should add that there are also times, but not very damned many, when market forces are so powerful that even the bankers are not able to pull off this ritual theft.  Max Pain is not always hit but with a record of it being hit probably 90% of the time, that's about all the evidence I need personally to conclude that the bankers should really all be behind bars.  They should have been place there 20 years ago... and still in there.

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  106. You bet.  There is one troll who continuously berates my opinion on this matter as if it were bitching that the market goes against me.  That's not it at all because I obviously know how to use it to my advantage.  I don't always do it because all indications might be pointing toward the market moving in the direction opposite to the max pain level.  I should know better than to argue with the max pain issue.  Sometimes I do and sometimes I don't.  The point is not about that at all... the point is that the corruption that runs rampant must be stopped before it literally drives the entire world back into the dark ages.

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  107. BTFD is proving to be the most effective strategy, until is isn't.   BTFD > EWT at the moment

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  108. I'm on an IV drip.....or is that wave 4??? Nurse....is it put the lime in the coconut?

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  109. Ya done went and edited (additional)...that or I missed it the first time...please tell me I'm not crazy (you can fib a little) :)

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  110. maybe we get that better looking ED today after all ??

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  111. I'm not quite following you but that sounds interesting.  Can you please elaborate a bit Scotty?

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  112. I need to get some of that stuff, cause the "new reality" isn't the reality I grew up with. I guess it all changed with printing technology.

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  113. looks like NDX topped out at 2744, INDU is breaking a long trend line, looks hopeful for a drop. A Big Drop.. :)

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  114. B complete and C back down for today.

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  115. I am officially changing my strategy to comply with Master Ben's wishes. Common sense be damned.

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  116. truerangeballisticApril 27, 2012 at 7:15 AM

    AR I am with you here. This is crazy what they do but in thinking about how the PD's would do this I have a question. Do you they go in and buy the individual components of the RUT and move it's price higher that way? Or do they pick the 10 largest components and buy them up? I am maybe all wrong but I am trying to understand exactly how they pump up this index. I appreciate your insights on this. Thanks again.

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  117. So you have this labeled as a wave IV eh?

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  118. $RUT rarely travels in a smooth arc, riding so nicely in the BBs...maybe I'm just seeing things. Like watching the waves and you see a fin in the water.

    http://screencast.com/t/ch61HVldZLED

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  119. PERMABEAR SQUEEZED YET AGAIN. BUY DIPS FOR LAST 3 YEARS IS THE PLAY. NOT SHORT. TREND IS UP. PLAY IT. PERMABEARISHNESS WILL BREAK YOU . KATZO13 NEVER LEARNS. PREDICTS DOWN FOR 3 YEARS. PAPER MONEY IS ALL LOST NOW. LEARN TENNIS OR SUMTIN. GITTERDONE

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  120.  TVIX LOL. NEVER LEARN DO YOU

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  121. CVX....if we have completed wave v of 2, then we could be seeing i, ii and then (i), (ii) of wave iii right now

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  122. DOWN DOWN DOWN. GO OPPOSITE OF YOU AND MADE A MINT. THANKS YE

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  123. Is that you Billa?

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  124. I don't know if I used the correct  terms above (waiting for my EW book)but I think this is the start of Wave 3 down?  What do you think?

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  125. 2 AND 3 YEARS AGO ON XTRENDS SITE I WAS CALLING UP AND KAT WAS CALLING DOWN. STILL THE SAME I SEE. PAPER TRADER NEEDS TO GIVE IT UP. YOUR COSTING LEMMINGS MONEY OUT THE WAZOO.

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  126.  One has to admit that this is one magnificent machine driven manipulation.  It's actually "pretty".

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  127. Bob, over the past weekend as a part of some other off topic commentary we determined that the tin foil had been upgraded to pharaoh gold foil, you should notice improved reception with this upgrade....

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  128. KAT MUSTA WENT TO CHINESE BUFFET LOL. 5 4 3 2 1 ....

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  129. Fib and trend projection out 1 week and looks like Bears will go home next week. http://screencast.com/t/oZcRkgKVHpkH -DD

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  130. INDU 13266 and NDX 1407 targets hit. Should be down now.

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  131. I told you...so I'm not nuts...AR says so LOL

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  132. Awesome charting their DD...I got this thing for fibs.

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  133. TY ... I chose the begin and end points of price/time based on the two green Katzos that form a box around the symmetric 3 peaks and 3 valleys. I thought, that was a complete unit. -DD

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  134. You are a piece of chit

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  135. CVX....38% retrace of wave iii within C of 2....one more high will complete 5 waves up in C.

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  136. I'm not certain exactly how they do it TRB.  But for sure they use a lot of methods like jacking up the futures so that there is an arbitrage opportunity of some sort created.  You know, like make the futures high enough that it pays off to buy equities and sell the futures until they come back in line.  They absolutely use vehicles like AAPL and GOOG for the NDX or like SPG (Simons Property Group) for the IYR (real estate sector), etc.  SPG makes up 10% of IYR.  And they jack the hell out of those stocks to bring up the entire index, giving the illusion that all other stocks in that index must be a bargain too.  I don't know all their tools... I just know that all of them are tools, lol.

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  137. Just trying to pick up Katzo's interpretive eye by emulation and practice :-) -DD

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  138. Right, it's the lack of schitzo in the pattern today that just reeks of "machine".  Sadly a 'fin' in the water will undoubtedly end up with 'blood' in the water.

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  139. truerangeballisticApril 27, 2012 at 8:11 AM

    Thanks AR. Always looking to understand these things better. So far this has been a 40 pt move up in the RUT from the 785.37 low.

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  140. nice one, good call. Hard to believe that INDU was at 13140 overnight after this push up. Looks toppy now.

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  141. Sorry...hold on, I think Elvis is calling.

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  142. Damn shame....no midnight skinnydippin fer me.

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  143. We'll take all the toppy we can get...(hope Bernanke wasn't listening)

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  144. we'll see how it works out St.. Looks interesting...  ;)

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  145. Bears ? They've all hibernated, bulls only now..... yeah right ;)

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  146. Very close.....one last push up and we should be prepared to garb our static line.

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  147. AAPL on the move. Down.

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  148. Connected my puter to my wide screen TV.....watchin every tick from the back of the room using my binoculars. 
    Don't want to miss anything.

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  149. Today is about as confusing as it can get. Everyone is left speculating. First some fact, RUT is relatively strong while financials lag, AAPL is doe 0.8%, curious thing is that VIX futures are way off its low and it is not slumping even though SPX made new high. Who wants to guess where we close at today? Maybe another 1399.99 :-)

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  150. I think it was Jackie Gleason who said "and away we go"

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  151. Everywhere gapping down. Not good for the bulls... ;(

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  152. targets posted this am 13266 and 1407 were met, EWT works.. ;)

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  153. Ok here's how you get around that problem partner.  Make sure you swim at Marina #1 and be sure to take Marina #2 with you.

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  154. am i just being wishful - probably ... what i did with this chart is erase the pre-market high on the futures (so that it more reflects today's cash) in suggesting, maybe, perhaps, just never might know ... that an ED  is now in place

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  155. Hah hah hah hah!!!! Better than bird watching, eh?

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  156. My latest SBUX count

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  157. Ok, here's another metric with the Max Pain thing.  If we look at the max pain for IWM we see that that level is at 82.  Equally as important to note is which of the options are there a greater number of... puts or calls?  Since it appears to be "calls", they movers and shaker would want to make sure its 'those' that expire out of the money.  So they would finish off  IWM just pennies 'below' 82.  That way a few of the 'puts' would be in the money by pennies (basically useless) and a greater number of 'calls' out expire totally worthless.

    The only caveat is that I don't have evidence about the actual stats for "today's" options.  But judging by the May 19th data from the Max Pain site, if the ratio is the same for today as for May 19th, then we'd see IWM close today just under $82.  $81.99 would even do the trick nicely.  But as I mentioned earlier, it's possible that by time we enter the final hour the vast majority of put owners may have closed their positions.  If that's the case they could tank the market real good and still have achieved their goal of total theft.  Let's see what happens this time around.

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  158. I guess this is a good a place to leave it till monday

    I hate weekends.

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  159. My mistake Scotty.  Had I read your comment with any awareness about what time you'd posted it, I would have seen what you meant.  My apologies.

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  160. My mistake Scotty.  Had I read your comment with any awareness about what time you'd posted it, I would have seen what you meant.  My apologies.

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  161. I guess this is a good place to leave it until monday.

    I hate weekends.

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  162. He also said:
    "Nobody, I mean nobody, makes Sheriff Buford T. Justice look like a possum's pecker!" - Smokey and the Bandit

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  163. Too damn funny. :)

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  164.  Excellent explanation of how that works, appreciate that.  Your last line, especially the part after 'both your legs' put it over the top, very funny line. 

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  165. Here is the market manipulation evidence of the gold market.  May be, you can find some similar market manipulation schemes that are obvious to you on the market you are interested in.

    http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/action/media/downloadFile?media_fileid=1718

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  166. truerangeballisticApril 27, 2012 at 8:58 AM

    Thanks Ray. Appreciate it.

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  167. yup, that is the Billa, said AAPL going to 500 when I said it was going UP
    He said gold to 1,000 right when it turned lower

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  168. Tough getting birds to stay still.....keep movin around the little beggars. Especially when you reach out to pet em.

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  169. Question for the most experienced EW and/or technicians.  Which does AMZN see first from here, 200 or 240?

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  170. LMAO....after reading "possum's pecker".....not sure what one of those looks like,.....possum I mean!

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  171. Another quote of the day: "Bad non-farm payroll number next week will send the market to infinity and beyond."  - MSNBC :)

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  172. I was only speaking to the gentlemen in the crowd of course.  I guess the ladies have other attributes to offer :-)

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  173. I believe I added the last sentence about "How's this actio...."

    But that doesn't necessarily mean you're not crazy man.

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  174. No...some place in South American....Banana & peanut butter plantation.

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  175. Went on quest to find the video and found it amongst a host of other classic quotes from the sheriff at about 3:00 minutes in, suggest you watch the whole thing though, especially if you liked Gleason - he was certainly one of a kind:
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uN3c64j2DPE 

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  176. Sooooo...who's calling the close??

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  177. I've been away since about 12:00 eastern time. I hope CVX starts down soon.

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  178. Bob, am going to step into this CVX trade with some 105 puts for 1.5. We will see if Monday brings a point to add or pain and misery.

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  179. He's really easy to spot at this point (the several of him).

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  180. Bob, filled the puts at 1.51 = CVX @ 106.36. I will explain change in strategy later. Noted something in charts on shorter timeframe.

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  181. CVX...tradin for 4 hours within a $0.80 spread.

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  182. Well $RUT is precisely at the base of its final top gap that I feared would act as a magnet, so it should be interesting

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  183. There may be a correct at some point next week.  However, if the MACD and Stochastic keep sending signals calling for higher prices, the decline may be a buying opportunity.  Is there a count that would suggest that this week's movement is one up with two down to follow before a three higher?  

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  184. Here's another amazing fact about today's ramp job in the Russell.  There was no pullback today even as small as 0.15% .  How's that for having your sights on a goal and the determination and power to make it happen?

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  185. May ops should give you enough time if this is the 3 wave. That's a pretty nice price.

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  186. I think he or she wants to be recognized as the same person, so that scores over time would accumulate on his or her scoreboard.

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  187. Looks like an ascending horizontal triangle for wave 2. Gonna leave it right at E today. Very nefarious....

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  188. How ironic you should say that.  Only yesterday I discovered that Elvis actually put bacon on those as well.  I'm gonna try it.
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peanut_butter,_banana_and_bacon_sandwich

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  189. I remember buying SBUX right after 9/11 while I was still in college (not alot) and selling it later when we bought our house.  I think it went up almost 100% from that buy.  Should have kept it in hindsight, but needed the money to start my new life w/ my wife!  

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  190. Let me know how it tastes...and keep a waste basket handy.

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