Friday's light session actually did a bit toward solidifying my doubts that the potential "triangle" was not likely to be a true fourth wave triangle, and as such, I've flopped the preferred and alternate counts of Friday's update to relect what I feel is a marginally more likely interpretation. It's still a bit of a toss-up, though and the key level to watch remains 1328.49. Below that price point, and the triangle stays on the table.
I also want to briefly discuss another pattern that's been knocking around in my skull for a while. I have always been bothered by the form of the decline that started at the end of March. Readers will recall me mentioning the RUT in comparison the the SPX on numerous occasions, and discussing how the RUT didn't quite reconcile as a five-wave decline.
This opened up the possibility of a leading diagonal, and the market action recently has caused me to decide to mention this potential. This pattern shows quite well on the Russell 2000 (RUT). The short-term expectation would be the same in this pattern, a bit more rally, then a decline to new lows. We'll examine this more closely depending on how things develop in the next few sessions.
In conclusion, my expectation is still that the market will make new lows in the near term. What happens over the next few sessions could always cast doubt on that expectation, but at present I see nothing to alter that prognosis. Trade safe.