Thursday, June 21, 2012

SPX, NYA Updates: Short-Term Potentials, and Key Levels to Watch

No change in the intermediate picture: new lows are still expected when this wave completes.  There's not a ton to add in that regard, but I'm going to put forth a few short-term options/ideas anyway, along with some near-term levels to watch. 

I still tend to favor the idea that there will be a new high made for this wave.  Yesterday was basically a choppy sideways day, which has something of a triangular appearance to it -- so it's entirely possible for a fourth wave triangle to be under formation here.  If so, it might head up and back down one more time before breaking out.  The chart below outlines that potential, and cites a bearish trade trigger.  I've also outlined some near-term support and resitance zones. 

Trade beneath 1346.45 rules out the triangle.

The next chart outlines a more straightforward bullish ST (short term) count, which has the same practical result as the triangle shown above.  Both the count above and the one below are invalidated with trade beneath the 1346.45 level.  Trade above 1363.46 would add confidence.  The bearish count, which allows the possibility that 1363 was the high for wave (ii), is shown as the alternate.

And finally, here's one for the ST bears who want their decline immediately with no more screwing around, using the NYA for form.  This interpretation requires a bit of outside the box thinking, but it's plausible.  That spike high on June 14 throws a bit of a curve into the ST wave structure; this count attempts to integrate it in a way that makes a bit of sense. 

On this chart, we can rule out the alternate wave (4) count if the "(D)/alt: (1)" price high is broken.  SPX also has similar options as the two shown below on NYA.  Trade above 7800.62 would tend to confirm the alternate count shown here. 

So, there's still a few potentials on the table, but the levels are straighforward.  Trade below 1346.45 would eliminate the first two counts shown, and basically leave the NYA chart as the last (high probability) option.  Trade above the recent high would tend to confirm the bull counts and should lead the SPX at least into the 1370's.  Trade safe.

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