Thursday, August 9, 2012

SPX Update: Little to Add...

Yesterday's flatline market added little in the way of clarity to the intermediate picture, and I debated not even publishing an update tonight.  There's been no material change from yesterday. 

I took a SWAG (Scientific Wild-@ss Guess) at the short-term structure; there's honestly no clear interpretation.  I'm slightly favoring the view that this structure leads to at least a short-term breakdown -- but it's simply going to take a directional break to clarify this move.

The wave from 1405 to 1398 appears impulsive.  The challenge is: this could fit a number of different corrective structures, including an expanded flat from 1404 (can be ruled out below 1398.8) -- or the a-wave down of an ongoing triangle (noted by the "or c" annotation on the chart -- can be ruled out beneath 1396). 

Unless this is a running triangle, 1396 is the line in the sand for the triangle count.  

So... after an ambiguous session that traded within a 7 point range in an ambiguous market, there's just not much to add here.  Trade safe.

1 comment:

  1. Christian GustafsonAugust 10, 2012 at 1:50 AM

    Hi Pretzel.  

    To me it looks like we have plenty of room on our chart to waste a few more days just like Thursday.  

    Chart here: