Friday, September 21, 2012

SPX Update: Keeping Things Simple

There's not much to add to the last several updates, so I've prepared a series of charts that should help with pointing the way over the next few sessions.  This isn't infallible, but in an attempt to keep this update as simple as possible for readers, I'm trying to work with the highest probability options.

Below are four charts of the S&P 500 (SPX), each at different time frames, with different successive levels to watch on each time frame.

First is the daily chart.  Because the beginning of the structure is unclear, I feel that it would be a bit misleading for me to imply too much confidence in the final outcome -- as such, upward prospects for this wave will be adjusted as needed (shown in gray).  I have also tried to simplify the labeling on this chart.

Interesting to note that yesterday the market "recognized," and bounced off of, the upper boundary of the potential diagonal that I've been blathering on about for several weeks. 

The next chart is the SPX 3-minute, and adds more detail to the chart above. 

Yesterday's short-term bearish sell trigger fell a bit more than 3 points shy of capturing its target.  The trigger is presently suspended, with the market back above 1456, but will not be entirely cancelled until the market crosses 1465.

The SPX 1-minute chart digs down in further detail:

The SXP hourly chart looks at trendlines and support/resistance.

Finally, an interesting signal indicator based around weekly put/call ratios, which has now reached the second lowest reading in a decade.  Are the bulls really so back-stopped by the central banks that they are presently immune to all prior market sell signals?

In conclusion, the bears haven't yet accomplished anything to break the upward facing wave (sustained trade beneath 1449 would now be the first step); barring that, new swing highs still appear to be the most likely outcome.  Trade safe.

Reprinted by permission; copyright 2012 Minyanville Media, Inc

1 comment:

  1. My thoughts from a couple of weeks ago
    I'll be updating these charts over the w/e