Monday, October 1, 2012


There's been no material change to the big picture outlook discussed on Thursday: the market has left its options open, but appears to be at an inflection point.  Since there's not much to add to that discussion, I'm going to focus primarily on the near-term charts for this update, with the exception of the Dow Jones Industrial (INDU -- below).

INDU looks at the key intermediate levels, and some possible Fibonacci targets.  Bears would need to force a breakdown of critical support in order to start favoring a more bearish intermediate outlook.  This is a tough wave to count, so while the invalidation level for the sub-minuette count is noted, this level wouldn't be a dagger through bulls' hearts. 

The next chart highlights some key near-term levels for the S&P 500 (SPX):

Next, a short-term look at SPX -- because of the potential of a fifth and final wave lower, I would suggest remaining very nimble if one elects to trade the trigger on the bear side.  If there is a breakdown, but momentum fails to accelerate and instead positively diverges, then remain alert to prospects of a meaningful bottom in formation.  As also discussed on Thursday, it remains possible that such a bottom is already in place at 1430.

Finally, a chart of the iShares Barclays 20-year Treasury Bond Fund (TLT).  This is another market which is at an inflection point, but the next week or so should help add clarity to the bigger picture.

In conclusion, the short-term will be determined by the key levels.  The bears still haven't accomplished anything meaningful from an intermediate perspective, so it is not unreasonable to assume that the bulls remain in charge of the intermediate-term until proven otherwise.  Trade safe. 

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