Thursday, October 4, 2012

SPX and NDX: Trend Still Your Friend?

No material change since yesterday.  Yesterday's outlook expected higher prices, which is what happened, and I am still in favor of the view that this consolidation will resolve with new swing highs.  How much higher is a bit up in the air at the moment, so we'll have to play it by ear for now and simply try to keep pointed in the right direction.

As mentioned in prior updates, a break of the S&P 500 (SPX) level of 1430 is required to shift prospects to bearish.

Yesterday's short-term count performed properly, and as mentioned, 1430 remains the key level for bears to get anything started.  Note I have updated the pending bearish sell trigger -- applicable only if bears can claim the falling red trendline.  A 17 point bullish buy trigger has also been added.

The alternate count, depicted in gray above, is detailed on the daily chart below...

The SPX trendline chart worked its magic yesterday, and the rally found resistance at the upper boundary of the falling dashed red trend channel.

A couple "bonus" charts... 

Here's a chart of NDX, simply because I took the trouble to draw it up:

And the SPX first short-term alternate count, which doesn't materially differ from the preferred count.

In conclusion, the only signals giving me a little hesitation aren't shown -- oil and the CRB Index are showing quite a bit of weakness, but that weakness isn't currently being reflected in the US equities markets.  Thus the outlook for equities is unchanged:  unless bears can sustain trade beneath 1430, there is as yet no sign this is anything other than a correction to a bullish trend.   Trade safe.

1 comment:

  1. this_coolaid_tastes_funnyOctober 4, 2012 at 8:20 PM

    Good morning pretzel. I have only posted here once but could you help a brother out and approve new username too_much_cool-aid ?