(Sorry for the late update, had an important phone call as I was wrapping things up. Incidentally, if you right-click on the charts and select "open in new window," you can bring them up at full-size.)
Well, it's that time of the month again, where I get really cranky and a bit bloated and... wait! I'm thinking of something else. Also, I'm a guy. What I meant to say was it's been about a month since I updated the long-term charts, and there has been at least one significant development since then. Last time we looked at the long-term, there was still potential for two versions of the bearish count. Since then, the alternate version of that count has been eliminated, so that allows me to narrow the long-term outlook down to two high probability potentials.
Let's look at the bear version first, since a lot of folks are wondering if the potential exists for a meaningful turn in the near future. Indeed that potential does exist, as green wave iv would need to retrace back into the price territory of green wave i for this pattern to remain valid. Ultimately this wave count would still see one more new high before a long-term turn. Given the deteriorating situation in Europe, this count does not seem at all unreasonable from a fundamental perspective.
If the rally continues unabated, to the point where the two red trend lines which bound the diagonal no longer can be drawn as converging, we'll have our first real clue that the more bullish count (shown next) is gaining real favor. At present, however, both counts remain viable -- so this bearish possibility does suggest that bulls should exercise real caution at current price levels.
Finally, a quick update to the near-term trend line chart.
In conclusion, there's an old Chinese curse that translates: "May you live in interesting times." These are interesting times indeed, and for the moment, the long-term bull and bear potentials both remain viable. Over the near-term, it does appear more probable that the market will do a bit of backing and filling before advancing again into the wave 5 target zone. Sustained trade below 1525 would now be the first clue that something more bearish was unfolding. Trade safe.