Tuesday, June 18, 2013

SPX Update: Unraveling the Near-term Potentials

The charts remain messy, but amazingly, despite the feel of hanging on the edges of our seats, the market has performed very much in line with the preferred count from June 12.  The pattern now can be viewed in a couple ways.  Bulls will look at it as a basing pattern, which projects to a retest of the all-time high.  This is entirely possible.  I have another way of looking at it, which I'll share in a moment.

First is the hourly chart, and the best-guess projection of June 12 has so far performed admirably.  I continue to marginally favor the bears on an intermediate basis, but it remains an exceptionally difficult call, which is typical of a fourth wave.  It remains possible that all of wave iv has completed at 1598, and I still feel that the bulls have the ball on a long-term basis. 

For the near-term, the pattern I suspect may be unfolding is shown below.  The other option is more straightforward, and is shown on the 10 minute charts which follows after the chart below.

Granted, the pattern I'm showing above isn't the "trade what you see" approach from a classic technical analysis standpoint.  One of the reasons I'm favoring the ending diagonal is the Philadelphia Bank Index (BKX) below:

The more bullish option accepts the basing pattern at face value, and I cannot rule this out.  As I noted, this is a market we have to take session by session.

In conclusion, over the near-term, higher prices would fit the pattern and I still anticipate it's likely my target from June 12 will be reached.  Over the intermediate term, I'm marginally favoring the bears, but it's a tough call, so I wouldn't take anything but the lowest risk entries.  Over the long term, I still feel bulls have the ball.  Trade safe.


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