Wednesday, June 25, 2014

SPX and INDU: Bears Take Control of the Short-term

In the last update, I noted that the S&P 500 (SPX) could be nearing a fourth wave correction, and it now appears that correction may be underway.  As of this exact moment, this is a market without clear intermediate trades, and personally I'm limiting my trades to short-term only until lower-risk entries present themselves.  The SPX chart below helps illustrate why.  I don't want to get too far ahead of the price action, but not shown on the chart is the potential that the correction could retrace as deep as the 1870's -- that's not a prediction yet, just something to keep in mind.

We find a similar situation in the Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDU), though here the current decline looks like it could be the c-wave of an expanded flat:

On the daily SPX chart, we can see price briefly overthrew long-term trend resistance (which I discussed in May) before falling back inside.  This is sticky territory for longs, as the price chart below reveals some similarity between the current pattern and the price action of late 2009 and early 2010, when SPX tested and established the upper channel boundary of the blue trend channel.  SPX overthrew the channel in that instance too, then ultimately fell back into a steep correction before moving higher again.

In conclusion, while all indications are that we're still in a bull market, due to the market's proximity to long-term resistance, this may not be the most opportune place for intermediate longs.  If this is indeed a fourth wave correction, then it should eventually resolve with new highs -- but as of this moment, the short-term trend is down and momentum confirmed the recent lows, which means the edge goes to bears for lower prices over the short-term.  Trade safe.

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