Tuesday, August 19, 2014

Quick SPX Update

Just a brief update today, since it's Tuesday.

Yesterday, SPX broke above 1964 as if nothing had happened on Friday.  That's not particularly bearish price action.  NYA overlapped its wave A low at 10,880 (though barely), but that in itself suggests the bull count was correct all along, and I was silly to even consider the possibility that the near-term waves were suggesting anything other than SPX 35,000 by the end of the year.

I never turned bearish after my SPX target of 1899-1907 was hit, but I did get a little concerned about the bull case, because the near-term waves were mimicking some bearish patterns.  That's not completely unheard of near major pivots, which is why I wrote on on August 13 that "SPX would maintain a bullish bias above 1944," and on August 15 added:

"Be aware that wave counts are not always apparent in real-time, and this is NOT a particularly clear structure to draw from.  SPX could (for example) be in a smaller nested third wave rally, which is why I suggested (on 8/13) that bears exercise caution above 1944."

At this point, there's nothing bearish going on in the charts, and I see no reason to continue doubting the original wave count, which anticipated that 1899-1907 SPX would mark the bottom of a higher-degree fourth wave, and culminate with new all-time highs.

Assuming a traditional third wave rally for "bull (3)," the classic target would be 2032-2042. 

In conclusion, bulls have overcome every hurdle they've reached so far -- so unless and until something happens to break the up-facing wave structures, bulls should probably continue to be given the benefit of the doubt.  On the SPX chart above, as long as bulls maintain 1964 first, and the up-sloping channel second, there's nothing in the price action that even hints at weakness.

Keep an eye on 1976-81 as potential resistance and the next bull hurdle.  Trade safe.

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