Monday, September 22, 2014

SPX, NYA, INDU: Was Less than 1 SPX Point from the March Intermediate Target "Close Enough"?

First off, I apologize for the lack of an update on Friday.  My family has been the target of one crisis after another for about two years straight (with the targets running the gamut of generations, from my father to my kids), and it's something of a miracle that I've been able to manage anything even approaching a consistent series of updates throughout this time.  Maybe one day things will settle down.  Or, maybe one day things will get much, much worse, and I'll look back on these unfortunate events as "the good times."  Yikes.  (One reason why happiness can only be found in the present, though, never the future!)

Anyway, today's update is going to let the charts do most of the talking.

Let's start with my favorite master index.  Our special guest all this week, here from New York City, let's have a big Las Vegas welcome for the one, the only, the NYA!

(sound of crickets chirping)

Below is a slightly zoomed-in view, with some additional trend lines and support/resistance zones.  As I see it, NYA's pattern suggests that bears need to keep pushing, or risk at least another few weeks of hibernation, since a breakout here would keep the market pointed up for the foreseeable future. 

Let's take another look at some long-term charts.  On Friday, SPX came within 1 point of my intermediate target from March 5, 2014:

INDU effectively reached its target zone as well, though I would have liked to see a bit bigger overthrow of the red trend line (as noted on 8/22), here again INDU's high was well-within the margin of error.

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Here's a closer view of INDU, on a KISS ("Keep It Simple, Stupid") chart:

And last but not least, the 15-minute SPX chart.  SPX finally reached the seemingly-questionable Target 2 zone from 8/22, after the chop zone of the past month did its job (by ultimately causing every trader on the planet to chop off whichever fingers they use to press "buy" or "sell" on their trading screens).

In conclusion, everything appears to be in place for bears to have a shot at taking over the market for a while (except for the all-important trend, of course).  Basically, bears have the precursors, and the market has effectively reached most of the intermediate upside target zones.  Near-term, Friday's decline appeared impulsive, so for the near-term at least, I'm expecting lower prices.  As the pattern develops, we'll begin to get a clearer picture as to whether a more significant turn has indeed occurred.  Keep watch on NYA during any rallies -- in the event of a breakout there, then all bearish bets are probably off.  Trade safe.


  1. Thanks Jason, hope things settle down for you soon. Your updates are always appreciated but don't let yourself feel pressured to do them every other day or in such great detail. Family comes first.

  2. Hey Pretz. Just checking in to see what your wave counts make of our current situation. Elliot Waves, love 'em or hate 'em, they do provide potentially useful reference levels into places where market generated information cannot go (because the market hasn't been there yet). Sorry to hear about your ongoing serial family crises, but it's good to see you've still got your sense of humor. All the best to you and yours.

  3. Thank you for the analysis. Best of luck with whatever you're facing, and I hope that luck improves.