Thursday, January 15, 2015

Quick Update: High Probabily Short Op

ES (E-mini S&P) revealed last night that the market remains extremely volatile at the moment... 

So far, INDU and SPX have found some support where they needed to -- but in the event this is not an expanded flat and the third wave lower has already begun, then support will continue failing spectacularly.  Although SPX and INDU could both support one more modest low and still preserve the flat potentials, things start to get iffy if that happens, so, ideally, near-term bulls want to see yesterday's lows hold.

Basically, don't get too attached to the flat if (and only if) the market can't find support here, because third wave declines can become relentless and nobody wants to miss that.

From an intermediate standpoint, due to the three-wave move into new lows in SPX, any bounce to 2065ish should be viewed as an incredible selling opportunity (not trading advice!).

INDU found support just north of 17262, thus technically the potential of a third wave RALLY stays on the table, however, that seems rather unlikely given the failure of the red 1/A low in SPX, and I'm not even showing it on the chart anymore.

In conclusion, in a perfect world, bears would like to see a rally toward 2064+, because that would be a high-probability short op.  Meanwhile, the intermediate outlook remains decidedly bearish no matter which path we take.  Beyond that, there's not much to add down here.  Trade safe.

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