Monday, January 5, 2015

SPX, COMPQ, BKX: Nasdaq Warns of Waterfall Potential

Back on November 17, I put forth my preferred thesis that the market was unraveling a high degree fifth wave.  My original target was 2065-75 for SPX, but I later adjusted that to 2090-2100.  On December 19, I reaffirmed my thesis that virtually everyone had it wrong, and wrote:

As outlined, in my perfect world, I'd like to see those new highs, ideally in a fashion convincing enough to get everyone even more ragingly bullish... right before the market begins an intermediate decline.  In the meantime, I'll track the structure on a micro level to try and identify that point as it happens.

On December 31, I believe I identified the inflection point as well as I could, and wrote:

"The Philadelphia Bank Index (BKX)... has all the ingredients in place for a complete rally."


"The 2-minute SPX chart shows an impulsive decline from the recent 2093 high.  The chart discusses the options further" (Chart said: "We probably can't go too far wrong expecting another wave down.")

So, here we are a few sessions later, and suddenly my thesis of the past two months doesn't look so crazy anymore.  For perspective, here's the daily SPX chart:

(Incidentally, if you're wondering what all these letters and numbers on the chart mean, and how they're relevant to what happens next, you might find value in my primer on the subject: Understanding Elliott Wave Theory)

The two-minute SPX chart contains more detail:

Let's take another look at BKX, which is really the index that tipped me off to the turn as it occurred.  Like a few other indices, we cannot truly call the decline in BKX impulsive just yet, so the bull options stay on the table for the time being:

(continued, next page)

Here's a broader view of the bull and bear options, via BKX's hourly chart:

Finally, COMPQ is warning that there is at least the potential for a continued waterfall:

In conclusion, thus far, the market has followed the road map I laid out back in mid-November and everything is on track for the preferred intermediate count.  Whenever possible, though, I prefer to avoid complacency as a trader, so I will thus continue to note the inflection points where bulls could regain control.  If we begin to see some small impulsive rallies, then we'll go on alert for additional upside.  In the meantime, though, there is nothing to indicate that November's thesis is going astray -- and all appearance (so far, anyway) suggest that the anticipated intermediate decline is now in the early stages.  Trade safe. 

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