Thursday, February 26, 2015

SPX, INDU, BKX: Giving the Bulls Some Airtime

This rally has been one of the least-clear waves we've seen in a while, and the overlapping price action has created repeated difficult-to-read congestion zones on the near-term charts.  Yet it has continued to recover from each decline, so bulls are, of course, very happy and complacent at this point.  So, today, we're going to give bulls a little more airtime in the wave counts, thereby guaranteeing an immediate top in the market (sorry, bulls!).

Let's start off with the elephant in the room for bears -- the long-term INDU chart:

Next, we'll look at a bear option that no one seems to be considering, along with its bullish counterpart:

Below, broad strokes on the bull/bear cases in BKX.  BKX was one of the hardest-hit market during the last decline, and which often leads the broader market:

The near-term SPX chart contains some bull and bear options, but this wave has been so tough to micro-count in real-time that I'm almost hesitant to even put wave labels on the chart.  One of the most challenging moments in Elliott Wave analysis is when you arrive into uncharted price territory, and have doubts as to what the next larger wave count is -- so you're not sure whether to expect five waves or three, etc..

In conclusion, the rally hasn't been as strong or relentless as one would hope for third wave, yet it has continued to recover from each overlapping decline so far.  We're certainly into price/pattern territory where one would expect at least something of a correction to develop, but as I've noted, the micro-counts remain less-than-clear.  If bears can break yesterday's low, then we have some downside target zones to watch for the near-term.  Trade safe. 

1 comment:

  1. I've been intrigued by your top scenario (megaphone breakout) for about 6 mns. A similar pattern emerged in the early 1900s with a breakout leading to the 1929 blowout. The only possibility I see for a repeat is a Republican president winning in 2016. Remember in 1999 that Reps were talking about privatizing Soc Sec and putting money in stock market. Japan is doing that now. Also Reps are talking about lowering corp taxes to reduce offshore tax avoidance by large corps. Negatives, however, are demographics.

    Feb 9, I created a Deep Wave forum acct with same username 'arthurk' and email address as comments and asked to join, but still in awaiting activation and no response to email.