Friday, March 6, 2015

SPX, INDU, NYA: NYA Hovering Over Its First Key Overlap

Last update noted that the near-term pattern seemed to favor the bears, and the market later saw a fairly significant decline.  Bulls are still quite certain that this is a corrective wave, and perhaps it is.  The issue they run into, at least in SPX, is that there appear to be "too many waves" down (meaning the pattern looks like it is not yet complete to the downside).  Bulls thus need to sustain trade north of 2110 SPX to begin neutralizing some of the bearish potential energy in this chart.

INDU offers a reasonably clean pattern, with some key levels to watch:

Unlike SPX, which appears that it perhaps has "too many waves" down, INDU currently has three waves down, thus the next breakdown/breakout may prove to be significant:

Finally, NYA back-tested an interesting confluence of resistance yesterday, and was rejected.  Any more downside here would overlap the first key bearish level, and suggest the extended fifth count I've been showing (in blue, preferred count) on SPX is likely correct.

In conclusion, the wave pattern isn't crystal clear, but continues to look more bearish than bullish for the moment.  Bulls will need to begin reclaiming some key levels to negate the bearish potential energy that's present in the charts.  Trade safe.

1 comment:

  1. Congrats to bearish call. Feds hikes on again. I am kind of middle of road between you and Caldero, but still think SPX 2150 possible Apr-May. Last months strong jobs # saw two day sell-off then reversed. .38 retracement to 2066 is last months pre-job #.

    Still waiting for activation of DeepWave forum with username "arthurk" from Feb 9.