Monday, March 23, 2015

SPX, INDU, TRAN: Bull vs. Bear Counts

The pattern has remained rather ambiguous in the days following the capture of my downside target of SPX 2047-57, and I've been hesitant to make much in the way of strong predictions.

On an intermediate basis, the obvious Elliott Wave pattern that has many bulls excited is the potential of a bullish nest of first and second waves.  I remain skeptical of that pattern, and am more inclined to believe that we're in the ballpark of ending the massive third wave rally that began back in 2011:

It's also worth mentioning that SPX is currently very close to my long-term target for wave iii, as first published back on February 7, 2013:

I've broken down INDU's chart into a bull and bear count to hopefully make the charts a little easier to follow.  First the bear count:

Next the bull count:

SPX is in a similar position:

Finally, a look at TRAN, where the counts are unchanged.  TRAN has yet to tip its hand, and has been stuck in a trading range for months:

In conclusion, this still isn't a market I feel comfortable getting too far in front on over the short term.  Intermediate-term we're still within the zone where we might begin watching for signs that the massive third wave rally which began in 2011 is finally nearing a close.  Trade safe.

1 comment:

  1. Today's charts are unusually clear and easy to parse, thanks for the effort in this regard.