Friday, April 24, 2015

SPX, INDU, BKX: Fractured markets

In the last update, we talked about how the bulls had demonstrated the potential that the last few months of corrective rallies were part of a triangle and not something more ominous.  Yesterday, SPX briefly poked its head above 2120, but that was rejected immediately -- and many other markets failed to make similar moves.

For example, INDU has yet to do anything at all:

BKX has, so far, not even broken Wednesday's high:

This leads me to look for ways that the market may have some tricks up its sleeve, and below is one such option:

We can track the above potential by watching the near-term charts:

Finally, the long-term picture is essentially unchanged:

In conclusion, we have mixed messages being given across the board right now.  Perhaps all of that will align in the next few sessions, perhaps it won't.  At present, though, the fracturing across markets leaves it difficult to get too married to any one outcome just yet.  Trade safe.


  1. ....dude, Nasdaq is now only 40 points away from the its all time intraday high of 5,132 !
    .....if 5,132 is crossed, throw all bear counts out the window !!

  2. Hi Bruce, nice to see you again -- keep in mind that even my "bear counts" remain long-term bullish (see blue iv/v on final chart). I've remained long-term bullish since ("officially") January 2, 2013. All I've been trying to identify is the blue iii and iv turning point, which would be IT bearish, but still LT bullish.