Monday, September 28, 2015

SPX and BKX Updates: Long-term Chart Reveals Potential for an 80% Decline

The E-mini S&P futures (ES) have been gyrating wildly in 25 point swings tonight.  This is not entirely new, and has been occurring on-and-off for several months.  On our forum several months ago (well before the recent flash crash), it prompted me to state that the character of the market seemed to have changed from bull to bear.  The more I watch and trade this market, the harder it gets to continue considering the possibility that we're still in a bull market.  At best, we're probably still in a Primary Degree fourth wave.  Liquidity, as revealed by the price action, still appears to be extremely thin -- and bull markets need liquidity.

The first chart we're going to examine today is a bit sobering.  BKX is one index that never left its bear market, and shows the potential of a complete, long-term ABC rally.  If that's the count, then the next long-term rally for this index comes after an 80% decline:

SPX continues to be difficult to chart on a micro level, so no material change here:

In conclusion, the next informational levels are outlined on the chart above.  Trade safe.

No comments:

Post a Comment