Monday, November 2, 2015

SPX and RUT: Time for a Correction?

Last update, we talked about USD/JPY, and the fact that it hadn't yet signaled the all-clear for equities bulls.  In today's update, we'll go a step further, and entertain the idea that a correction may be due for equities.

Let's start with the 30-minute SPX chart.  This chart has kept us looking for higher prices all the way into 2090-95 -- and while higher prices are still possible from here, there are currently no new high-probability targets.  Sometimes that means that a move is just about out of steam for the moment.

For the record, I'm pretty hesitant to call for a correction against this move, but I'm going to take a stab at it anyway.  Keep in mind that it's entirely possible this rally will just keep steamrolling bears, and there's no accounting for (or anticipating) unusual or record-breaking waves -- but nevertheless, below is one near-term corrective possibility.   Based on the near-term pattern, it's quite possible for SPX to make another small head fake higher before embarking on something akin to the correction shown below.

Finally, RUT presents an interesting pattern, inasmuch as it's difficult to count this as a complete move.  It's thus most likely either a very bullish nest of 1's and 2's (the reason I mention it's possible for the rally to keep rolling), or an expanded flat.  The expanded flat seems more reasonable, which is why I'm suggesting that maybe, just maybe, we'll have a correction soon:

In conclusion, RUT makes it difficult to find a complete bear wave just yet, so I'm inclined to think that the rally isn't entirely complete -- but it might be due for a breather, either immediately or after a minor new high.  The most bearish pattern does lead back to a test of the lows, so if the market starts correcting substantially, we'll track that in real-time and try not to jump the gun.  Trade safe.

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