Monday, November 9, 2015

SPX, BKX, INDU: BKX Captures Target; SPX Causes Blindness

Wednesday's update suggested it might be time for a correction, and that's what we've had since then.  The pattern leaves a lot to be desired at this stage, it could be an impulsive decline, or it could be a hat, or a brooch or a pterodactyl (See: Airplane!). 

Let's start with the market we felt we "knew" was going higher:  BKX hit its 76 target to the upside on Friday.  It launched strongly after the jobs number, while SPX stalled -- this is due to the strong dollar being good for financials, but bad for overseas profits.

(Incidentally, I had to recreate this entire chart from scratch, complete with lengthy annotations -- complete with bad puns -- because Stockcharts overwrote my original chart with a blank chart.  Thanks, Stockcharts!)

Let's take a look at SPX, and see if it doesn't make us want to shoot ourselves in the head.  You might want to cover your eyes for this next chart:

Moving right along, here's a much simpler chart of INDU:

In conclusion, due to the fact that SPX's chart pattern looks like it was drawn by angry preschool children, it's challenging to know for certain whether the recent decline is the start of at least a modestly-deeper correction, or if it's merely another fourth wave slop correction.  I'm inclined to lean slightly toward the impulsive decline, and think that the correction probably isn't finished yet, but don't hold me to that.  Hopefully the next few sessions will help things clarify a bit.  Trade safe.

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