Wednesday, December 9, 2015

SPX and BKX: Market May Be about to Get Even More Wild

Last update expected SPX would break 2097, and, for once, the market said (this is a direct quote): "The heck with that, Imma do something weird instead."

On BKX, I had noted the possibility for a complex flat, and that may be what's unfolding, but this pattern has options to get even weirder than shown.  Before we worry too much about that, though, let's take a look at the most "obvious" (and I use that term loosely) potential:

On SPX, things would have to shake out in a similar fashion -- if this is indeed a complex flat, of course.  There are bear options here, too, and they can't be ruled out yet.  As I mentioned on 11/25, the market still hasn't broken out over resistance, and (okay, this one IS a direct quote for real): "don't get caught looking up PAST resistance that hasn't even been tested yet.  Stick to the present and see how the market reacts."  Thus, the chart below covers the bear options in a bit more detail, at the hourly level:

Finally, the near-term chart simply shows the first informational levels, and notes that there's another way for a complex flat to fit here if 2042 breaks.

In conclusion, the market hasn't quite moved back into ambiguous territory, but it's awfully close to doing so.  The good news is that while it may not be entirely predictable from the current vantage point, there are certain tells that we know to watch for here, and if we see those tells, we'll be able to get a stronger read of the move that will follow in their wake.  In the meantime, trade safe.

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