Friday, December 18, 2015

SPX Update: Chop Zone Continues

Since last update, the Fed indeed raised rates, which is exactly what some bulls claim they wanted, because the Fed is "supposed" to raise rates during bull markets -- so (try to follow along with this) the fact that the Fed raised rates confirms that this is a bull market, and therefore: bullish.

That's sort of like saying:  "We have a theory that the sun is really hot, but we're not sure, so we're going to land a probe there and see if it melts.  If it melts, then the sun IS really hot.  And that would mean we win!"

Another argument I've heard is that rate increase amounts to increased revenue for the government, which amounts to increased SPENDING by the government, which amounts to economic stimulus, which leads to more money for everyone and thus strengthens the economy.  The problem with this logic is that it's stupid.

What?  Oh, sorry:  The problem with this logic is that it doesn't seem to acknowledge that the money first has to come from somewhere.  In this example, it comes from the economy.  So, even if the government were to turn around and spend 100% of the revenue it takes in, that's still not actually stimulating anything, it's just moving money around.  (Money that comes from the economy and then goes back to the economy results in zero net gain to the economy.  It's like standing in a pool with a bucket, filling the bucket with pool water, and then dumping that water back into the pool:  You're not actually adding any water to the pool!  You're just wasting everyone's time and creating "busy work" for yourself so you can feel important and tell your friends that it's entirely up to you to keep filling the pool... at least, that is, IF they want to keep swimming in it!  Those ingrates.  This example is, of course, absolutely NOTHING like what the government does.  Ha.  Ha ha.)

In any case, the point is that the Fed raised rates, and we can all argue about whether that's bullish or bearish or just something they pretty much had to do at this point -- and the market doesn't care.

Chart-wise, the chop zone continues to look like a chop zone, and no new information is conveyed within a chop zone -- so, accordingly, I'll continue sticking with my original read that 1993 is unlikely to be the "final" low of this move, although the pattern is doing its best to make things even more confusing.  Let's find out why, starting with the 30-minute SPX chart:

The hourly chart contains some additional discussion:

In conclusion, on one hand, it still doesn't appear that 1993 is a sustainable bottom, so ultimately, I believe the market is headed lower.  On the other hand, very short-term, the proposed C-wave "should" have continued higher than 2076, so for now, I'm going to assume it's incomplete and thus could still headed higher BEFORE heading lower.  The outlier possibility is that 2076 represents the top of a failed C-wave and complete as-is, which would potentially be quite bearish.  Trade safe.

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