Wednesday, February 24, 2016

SPX, INDU, and Stockcharts Errors: Bears Get Their First Real Chance Since 1810

Since last update, SPX and INDU have both reversed from upside inflection points in apparently-impulsive declines.  This is as good a signal as bears have had since the bottom at 1810.  Thus, the level for bulls to beat remains 1947.20 SPX -- but unless that happens, it appears that bears just took the ball back.

Unfortunately, I've had a lot of trouble with tonight -- the site has crashed several times, and I've lost some of my annotated charts, because they're not uploading properly.  Let's take a quick look at Stockchart's version of the SPX chart:

Oh yeah, that one crashed after I spent time annotating it, and it never uploaded at all...  Hmm, okay, let's take a quick look through one of my Stockcharts chart books instead:

Ugh, that's not much help either.  Luckily, after considerable effort, I was able to get one (count it: one) chart loaded and saved for today's update:

And after going back and trying again just now, I was able to quickly annotate an additional chart, which had to be kept simple by virtue of time constraints:

In conclusion, we have our first impulsive turn since the rally began at 1810.  This in itself doesn't guarantee that the rally is entirely complete (the impulsive decline could be wave A of an ABC correction), but it's the best signal bears have had since 1810.  INDU has developed into the structure discussed on February 15 (a 3-3-5 flat), and turned right where wave C of (4) was charted (originally shown all the way back on February 8).  My main lingering concern is that it's still technically possible that this decline is only a correction to a still-larger ongoing C-wave rally -- but bulls are going to have to prove that with a breakout over 1947.  As noted, this is "as good as it gets" for bears at this stage.  Trade safe.

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