Friday, March 4, 2016

SPX and RUT: Returning to the Scene of the Crime

Today is Non-Farm Payroll day (NFP), and in the past, this day has often marked wild whipsaw markets and/or turns.  There's the potential for today to get interesting.  Since last update, SPX captured its next upside breakout target of 1993-2000.  And this morning, ES (E-mini S&P futures) had a lovely spike on the NFP announcement -- and that spike looked suspiciously like a fifth wave blowoff.  More often than not, the first direction ES heads after the NFP number is a fakeout, and ES indeed reversed hard after the initial spike.

Thus, it will be interesting to see if today finally marks a turn of fortune for the rally -- keep in mind, though, that so far, we still don't have an impulsive decline in the cash market, so talk of turns can only be viewed as speculation.  Let's take a look at the charts.  We'll start with SPX:

SPX is finally into the zone where there's some established horizontal resistance from the prior trading ranges near the all-time highs.  And then we have RUT, which has "returned to the scene of the crime":

Not shown is NYMO, which is as overbought as it's been in a long time.  Between NYMO's extreme overbought condition, overhead resistance (and the capture of my breakout target), and the propensity for NFP to mark turn days, this could make for an interesting recipe.  That said, with no impulsive declines yet, I can only speculate... but I will speculate that today at least has the potential to mark a high.  Trade safe.

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