Monday, March 21, 2016

SPX, NYA, WLSH, COMPQ: SPX Breakout Target Captured

On Friday, SPX captured its next breakout target zone (2050-60), and perfectly tagged a resistance line.  The blue line becomes first meaningful support:

NYA is still above its breakout zone.  If it back-tests the down-trend line, what happens there (if it acts as support or not) will be informative:

Next is simply an interesting chart of COMPQ -- interesting because I drew the blue trend channel almost a year and a half ago, and the market reacted to it strongly:

(Note:  Typo -- blue line tagged in February, not January.)

Next is a market I haven't published in a long time:  The Wilshire 5000.  This chart examines the bull count in detail, and contains a few random thoughts:

In conclusion, despite the neck-breaking pace of the current rally, I'm still modestly inclined to favor the bear case, but we have yet to see a larger impulsive decline -- and that's a prerequisite that we need to see before we even attempt to consider the possibility of a top.  All that could, of course, change at any time -- but the beauty of waiting for an impulsive decline is that it's hardly "without warning."  Trade safe. 

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